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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers?
Task-level automation exposure for First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers: 21 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
49%
weighted task index
21 of 21 tasks scored
Median Salary
$48,520 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
1,121,800 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
-3.7%
employment change
113,500 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$29,720 – $60,750
Highest medians
Washington $60,750
Rhode Island $58,570
District of Columbia $58,470
New York $58,300
Colorado $58,200
Lowest medians
Guam $29,720
Puerto Rico $30,090
Arkansas $36,950
West Virginia $39,740
Kentucky $40,080
State figures come from the 41-1011 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 49%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 9%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 44%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 10%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 0/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
21 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 35%
7 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 38%
9 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 27%
5 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#657 · Core · 42% automatable
Provide customer service by greeting and assisting customers and responding to customer inquiries and complaints.
information retrieval — Product questions answered from knowledge base
Greet customers, patrons, or visitors. Answer customer questions about goods or services.
#660 · Core · 30% automatable
Direct and supervise employees engaged in sales, inventory-taking, reconciling cash receipts, or in performing services for customers.
interpersonal — Motivating and directing salespeople is relational work
Supervise sales or support personnel.
#671 · Core · 22% automatable
Examine merchandise to ensure that it is correctly priced and displayed and that it functions as advertised.
visual inspection — Property condition assessment requires physical presence
Examine condition of property or products.
#658 · Core · 68% automatable
Monitor sales activities to ensure that customers receive satisfactory service and quality goods.
data analysis — Sales metrics monitored by AI; human interprets and acts
Monitor sales activities.
#668 · Core · 40% automatable
Instruct staff on how to handle difficult and complicated sales.
interpersonal — Sales coaching blends persuasion and live practice
Train sales personnel.
#659 · Core · 68% automatable
Assign employees to specific duties.
decision support — Assignments drafted; accountability and negotiation human
Assign duties or work schedules to employees.
#662 · Core · 85% automatable
Keep records of purchases, sales, and requisitions.
data analysis — Maintain structured sales records via tools
Maintain records of sales or other business transactions.
#666 · Core · 14% automatable
Perform work activities of subordinates, such as cleaning and organizing shelves and displays and selling merchandise.
interpersonal — Closing sales requires persuasion and accountability
Clean work areas. Set up merchandise displays. Sell products or services.
#672 · Core · 68% automatable
Plan and prepare work schedules and keep records of employees' work schedules and time cards.
decision support — Assignments drafted; accountability and negotiation human
Assign duties or work schedules to employees.
#673 · Core · 70% automatable
Review inventory and sales records to prepare reports for management and budget departments.
data analysis — Reports and budgets drafted; human owns assumptions
Prepare financial documents, reports, or budgets. Monitor inventories of products or materials.
#661 · Core · 64% automatable
Inventory stock and reorder when inventory drops to a specified level.
decision support — Merchandise purchasing aided; human owns buying decisions
Purchase stocks of merchandise or supplies. Monitor inventories of products or materials.
#667 · Core · 52% automatable
Establish and implement policies, goals, objectives, and procedures for the department.
text generation — Drafts operational policy; accountability and approval human
Establish operational policies.
#664 · Core · 22% automatable
Examine products purchased for resale or received for storage to assess the condition of each product or item.
visual inspection — Property condition assessment requires physical presence
Examine condition of property or products.
#663 · Core · 30% automatable
Enforce safety, health, and security rules.
situated mobility — Security monitoring of work areas needs physical presence
Monitor work areas to provide security.
#670 · Core · 80% automatable
Estimate consumer demand and determine the types and amounts of goods to be sold.
information retrieval — AI aggregates and analyzes market data at scale
Monitor market conditions or trends.
#675 · Core · 58% automatable
Confer with company officials to develop methods and procedures to increase sales, expand markets, and promote business.
text generation — Plans drafted; human owns positioning and approval
Develop marketing plans or strategies.
#669 · Supplemental · 52% automatable
Formulate pricing policies for merchandise, according to profitability requirements.
text generation — Drafts operational policy; accountability and approval human
Establish operational policies.
#665 · Supplemental · 35% automatable
Hire, train, and evaluate personnel in sales or marketing establishments, promoting or firing workers when appropriate.
interpersonal — Sales coaching blends persuasion and live practice
Train sales personnel. Supervise sales or support personnel.
#674 · Supplemental · 38% automatable
Plan and coordinate advertising campaigns and sales promotions and prepare merchandise displays and advertising copy.
text generation — Plans drafted; human owns positioning and approval
Develop marketing plans or strategies. Set up merchandise displays. Coordinate sales campaigns.
#676 · Supplemental · 52% automatable
Establish credit policies and operating procedures.
text generation — Drafts operational policy; accountability and approval human
Establish operational policies.
#677 · Supplemental · 52% automatable
Plan budgets and authorize payments and merchandise returns.
data analysis — Budget drafting from assumptions; human validates assumptions
Authorize financial actions. Prepare operational budgets.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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