AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Skincare Specialists?

Task-level automation exposure for Skincare Specialists: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

26% weighted task index

18 of 18 tasks scored

Median Salary

$45,330 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Medium

72,890 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+8.8% employment change

14,200 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 50 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$23,440 – $79,320

Highest medians

Washington $79,320

District of Columbia $77,480

Wyoming $62,400

Montana $58,500

Nebraska $58,420

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $23,440

Idaho $34,130

Arkansas $36,520

Tennessee $36,590

Louisiana $36,890

State figures come from the 39-5094 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 26%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 48%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 39%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 7%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 12/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 31%

6 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 56%

10 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#8069 · Core · 8% automatable

Sterilize equipment and clean work areas.

physical manipulation — Tool cleaning is physical manipulation

Clean facilities or work areas. Clean tools or equipment.

#8074 · Core · 5% automatable

Cleanse clients' skin with water, creams, or lotions.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#8071 · Core · 40% automatable

Demonstrate how to clean and care for skin properly and recommend skin-care regimens.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Demonstrate activity techniques or equipment use. Teach health or hygiene practices. Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#8077 · Core · 40% automatable

Determine which products or colors will improve clients' skin quality and appearance.

visual inspection — Skin/hair assessment needs in-person visual and tactile exam

Assess skin or hair conditions.

#8070 · Core · 72% automatable

Keep records of client needs and preferences and the services provided.

text generation — Maintain client records; human owns sensitive judgment

Maintain client information or service records.

#8075 · Core · 5% automatable

Treat the facial skin to maintain and improve its appearance, using specialized techniques and products, such as peels and masks.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#8072 · Core · 40% automatable

Examine clients' skin, using magnifying lamps or visors when necessary, to evaluate skin condition and appearance.

visual inspection — Skin/hair assessment needs in-person visual and tactile exam

Assess skin or hair conditions.

#8078 · Core · 5% automatable

Perform simple extractions to remove blackheads.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#8073 · Core · 5% automatable

Select and apply cosmetic products, such as creams, lotions, and tonics.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#20258 · Core · 70% automatable

Stay abreast of latest industry trends, products, research, and treatments.

information retrieval — AI supports study; certification requires human

Maintain professional knowledge or certifications.

#8081 · Core · 5% automatable

Apply chemical peels to reduce fine lines and age spots.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#8076 · Core · 50% automatable

Refer clients to medical personnel for treatment of serious skin problems.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#8079 · Core · 3% automatable

Provide facial and body massages.

physical manipulation — Massage is skilled manual physical contact

Administer therapeutic massages.

#8080 · Core · 5% automatable

Remove body and facial hair by applying wax.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.

#8086 · Core · 5% automatable

Tint eyelashes and eyebrows.

physical manipulation — Hair treatment application requires manual skill

Apply solutions to hair for therapeutic or cosmetic purposes.

#8084 · Supplemental · 40% automatable

Collaborate with plastic surgeons and dermatologists to provide patients with preoperative and postoperative skin care.

interpersonal — Treatment planning collaboration is accountable clinical work

Collaborate with healthcare professionals to plan or provide treatment.

#8082 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Advise clients about colors and types of makeup and instruct them in makeup application techniques.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#8083 · Supplemental · 32% automatable

Sell makeup to clients.

interpersonal — Closing sales requires persuasion and accountability

Sell products or services.

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Community Sentiment

Do you agree?

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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