AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists?

Task-level automation exposure for Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists: 20 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

25% weighted task index

20 of 20 tasks scored

Median Salary

$35,790 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Very High

305,710 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+7.7% employment change

73,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 52 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$22,090 – $59,510

Highest medians

Washington $59,510

Oregon $57,580

District of Columbia $54,570

South Dakota $49,800

Vermont $48,650

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $22,090

Louisiana $26,030

Mississippi $27,560

Arkansas $28,830

Alabama $29,150

State figures come from the 39-5012 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 25%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 53%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 37%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 10%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 6/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

20 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 24%

5 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 64%

13 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#635 · Core · 8% automatable

Keep work stations clean and sanitize tools, such as scissors and combs.

physical manipulation — Tool cleaning is physical manipulation

Clean facilities or work areas. Clean tools or equipment.

#638 · Core · 80% automatable

Schedule client appointments.

decision support — Calendar scheduling automatable; exceptions need human judgment

Schedule appointments.

#639 · Core · 5% automatable

Bleach, dye, or tint hair, using applicator or brush.

physical manipulation — Hair treatment application requires manual skill

Apply solutions to hair for therapeutic or cosmetic purposes.

#636 · Core · 7% automatable

Cut, trim and shape hair or hairpieces, based on customers' instructions, hair type, and facial features, using clippers, scissors, trimmers and razors.

physical manipulation — Wig grooming needs fine manual dexterity

Groom wigs or hairpieces. Trim client hair.

#641 · Core · 7% automatable

Shampoo, rinse, condition, and dry hair and scalp or hairpieces with water, liquid soap, or other solutions.

physical manipulation — Wig grooming needs fine manual dexterity

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin. Groom wigs or hairpieces.

#640 · Core · 72% automatable

Update and maintain customer information records, such as beauty services provided.

text generation — Maintain client records; human owns sensitive judgment

Maintain client information or service records.

#637 · Core · 40% automatable

Analyze patrons' hair and other physical features to determine and recommend beauty treatment or suggest hair styles.

visual inspection — Skin/hair assessment needs in-person visual and tactile exam

Assess skin or hair conditions.

#649 · Core · 3% automatable

Massage and treat scalp for hygienic and remedial purposes, using hands, fingers, or vibrating equipment.

physical manipulation — Massage is skilled manual physical contact

Administer therapeutic massages.

#645 · Core · 5% automatable

Apply water or setting, straightening or waving solutions to hair, and use curlers, rollers, hot combs and curling irons to press and curl hair.

physical manipulation — Hair treatment application requires manual skill

Apply solutions to hair for therapeutic or cosmetic purposes.

#650 · Core · 5% automatable

Shave, trim, and shape beards and moustaches.

physical manipulation — Hair trimming is hands-on with unpredictable clients

Trim client hair.

#646 · Core · 8% automatable

Comb, brush, and spray hair or wigs to set style.

physical manipulation — Wig grooming needs fine manual dexterity

Groom wigs or hairpieces.

#644 · Core · 45% automatable

Develop new styles and techniques.

text generation — Costume concepts generated; physical fabrication human

Design costumes or cosmetic effects for characters.

#643 · Core · 39% automatable

Demonstrate and sell hair care products and cosmetics.

text generation — Promotional materials drafted; human executes outreach

Sell products or services. Promote products, services, or programs. Demonstrate activity techniques or equipment use.

#20899 · Core · 41% automatable

Order, display, and maintain supplies.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Set up merchandise displays. Order materials, supplies, or equipment.

#642 · Supplemental · 20% automatable

Operate cash registers to receive payments from patrons.

physical manipulation — Operating a physical cash register with hands

Operate cash registers.

#647 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Shape eyebrows and remove facial hair, using depilatory cream, tweezers, electrolysis or wax.

physical manipulation — Hair trimming is hands-on with unpredictable clients

Trim client hair.

#648 · Supplemental · 29% automatable

Administer therapeutic medication and advise patron to seek medical treatment for chronic or contagious scalp conditions.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Administer basic health care or medical treatments. Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#652 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Recommend and explain the use of cosmetics, lotions, and creams to soften and lubricate skin and enhance and restore natural appearance.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#651 · Supplemental · 33% automatable

Train or supervise other hairstylists, hairdressers, and assistants.

interpersonal — Service staff coaching is interpersonal and situational

Train service staff. Supervise service workers.

#656 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Attach wigs or hairpieces to model heads and dress wigs and hairpieces according to instructions, samples, sketches or photographs.

physical manipulation — Wig grooming needs fine manual dexterity

Groom wigs or hairpieces.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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