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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Postal Service Mail Carriers?
Task-level automation exposure for Postal Service Mail Carriers: 21 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
42%
weighted task index
21 of 21 tasks scored
Median Salary
$60,550 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
328,820 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
-0.3%
employment change
19,600 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$55,490 – $64,250
Highest medians
District of Columbia $64,250
Rhode Island $63,610
Arizona $62,390
California $62,090
Illinois $62,070
Lowest medians
Virgin Islands $55,490
Guam $56,080
Mississippi $57,470
West Virginia $57,700
South Carolina $57,700
State figures come from the 43-5052 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 42%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 20%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 6%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 43%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 20/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
21 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 36%
8 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 19%
4 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 45%
9 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#20906 · Core · 85% automatable
Scan labels on letters or parcels to confirm receipt.
data analysis — Data entry into systems automatable
Enter information into databases or software programs.
#11341 · Core · 43% automatable
Obtain signed receipts for registered, certified, and insured mail, collect associated charges, and complete any necessary paperwork.
information retrieval — Drafting aided; authorized signature human
Obtain written authorization to perform activities. Collect deposits, payments or fees.
#11344 · Core · 25% automatable
Return to the post office with mail collected from homes, businesses, and public mailboxes.
physical manipulation — Routing physical mail requires sorting by hand
Route mail to correct destinations.
#11342 · Core · 12% automatable
Sort mail for delivery, arranging it in delivery sequence.
physical manipulation — Sorting physical mail requires hands-on handling
Sort mail.
#11343 · Core · 10% automatable
Deliver mail to residences and business establishments along specified routes by walking or driving, using a combination of satchels, carts, cars, and small trucks.
situated mobility — Physical delivery of items in real environments
Deliver items.
#11351 · Core · 18% automatable
Meet schedules for the collection and return of mail.
physical manipulation — Routing physical mail requires sorting by hand
Deliver items. Route mail to correct destinations.
#11346 · Core · 60% automatable
Sign for cash-on-delivery and registered mail before leaving the post office.
text generation — Broad clerical tasks partly automatable, human oversees exceptions
Perform administrative or clerical tasks.
#11348 · Core · 25% automatable
Hold mail for customers who are away from delivery locations.
physical manipulation — Routing physical mail requires sorting by hand
Route mail to correct destinations.
#11345 · Core · 35% automatable
Turn in money and receipts collected along mail routes.
physical manipulation — Handling cash/payment collection in person
Collect deposits, payments or fees.
#11350 · Core · 70% automatable
Leave notices telling patrons where to collect mail that could not be delivered.
text generation — Routine customer notifications largely automatable
Provide notifications to customers or patrons.
#11353 · Core · 85% automatable
Maintain accurate records of deliveries.
data analysis — Record shipping information into structured fields
Record shipping information.
#11349 · Core · 5% automatable
Bundle mail in preparation for delivery or transportation to relay boxes.
physical manipulation — Manual packing for shipping
Package objects for shipping.
#11347 · Core · 53% automatable
Record address changes and redirect mail for those addresses.
data analysis — Maintain financial records; human reconciles exceptions
Maintain financial or account records. Route mail to correct destinations.
#11352 · Core · 25% automatable
Return incorrectly addressed mail to senders.
physical manipulation — Routing physical mail requires sorting by hand
Route mail to correct destinations.
#11354 · Core · 62% automatable
Answer customers' questions about postal services and regulations.
information retrieval — AI explains policies; human handles live questions
Explain regulations, policies, or procedures.
#11355 · Core · 70% automatable
Provide customers with change of address cards and other forms.
text generation — Routine customer notifications largely automatable
Provide notifications to customers or patrons.
#11356 · Core · 65% automatable
Report any unusual circumstances concerning mail delivery, including the condition of street letter boxes.
text generation — Reporting maintenance problems is routine messaging
Report maintenance or equipment problems to appropriate personnel.
#11357 · Supplemental · 43% automatable
Register, certify, and insure parcels and letters.
decision support — Coverage arranged via systems; judgment and liability human
Arrange insurance coverage. Prepare outgoing mail.
#11358 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Travel to post offices to pick up the mail for routes or pick up mail from postal relay boxes.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#11361 · Supplemental · 32% automatable
Sell stamps and money orders.
interpersonal — Closing sales requires persuasion and accountability
Sell products or services.
#11360 · Supplemental · 68% automatable
Complete forms that notify publishers of address changes.
text generation — Compliance docs drafted; human owns regulatory accuracy
Prepare documentation for contracts, transactions, or regulatory compliance.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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