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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic?
Task-level automation exposure for Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic: 15 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
28%
weighted task index
15 of 15 tasks scored
Median Salary
$58,000 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
1,470 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
-22.8%
employment change
100 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 12 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$47,050 – $97,690
Highest medians
Ohio $97,690
Minnesota $74,900
Massachusetts $65,210
Iowa $63,420
Alabama $62,290
Lowest medians
North Carolina $47,050
Texas $49,390
Wisconsin $52,150
Michigan $53,780
Pennsylvania $54,150
State figures come from the 51-4062 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 28%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 52%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 27%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 0%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 5/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
15 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 21%
3 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 11%
2 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 68%
10 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#12037 · Core · 66% automatable
Read and interpret blueprints or drawings of parts to be cast or patterns to be made, compute dimensions, and plan operational sequences.
data analysis — Dimension calculations from given specs
Review blueprints or other instructions to determine operational methods or sequences. Calculate dimensions of workpieces, products, or equipment. Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.
#12038 · Core · 28% automatable
Verify conformance of patterns or template dimensions to specifications, using measuring instruments such as calipers, scales, and micrometers.
physical manipulation — Hands-on dimensional measurement of workpieces
Measure dimensions of completed products or workpieces to verify conformance to specifications.
#12041 · Core · 6% automatable
Assemble pattern sections, using hand tools, bolts, screws, rivets, glue, or welding equipment.
physical manipulation — Physical construction of templates and work aids
Operate welding equipment. Construct patterns, templates, or other work aids.
#12042 · Core · 12% automatable
Repair and rework templates and patterns.
physical manipulation — Manual shaping and fitting of physical templates and molds
Repair templates, patterns, or molds.
#12044 · Core · 10% automatable
Clean and finish patterns or templates, using emery cloths, files, scrapers, and power grinders.
physical manipulation — Grinding requires hands-on control and feel
Clean workpieces or finished products. Smooth metal surfaces or edges. Operate grinding equipment.
#12036 · Core · 12% automatable
Set up and operate machine tools, such as milling machines, lathes, drill presses, and grinders, to machine castings or patterns.
physical manipulation — Grinding requires hands-on control and feel
Operate grinding equipment.
#12046 · Core · 12% automatable
Mark identification numbers or symbols onto patterns or templates.
physical manipulation — Marking workpieces is hands-on physical task
Mark products, workpieces, or equipment with identifying information.
#12043 · Core · 8% automatable
Lay out and draw or scribe patterns onto material, using compasses, protractors, rulers, scribes, or other instruments.
physical manipulation — Drawing guide lines on materials is hands-on
Draw guide lines or markings on materials or workpieces using patterns or other references.
#12040 · Core · 68% automatable
Design and create templates, patterns, or coreboxes according to work orders, sample parts, or mockups.
visual inspection — Generates template designs; aesthetic fit needs human review
Design templates or patterns.
#12045 · Core · 7% automatable
Construct platforms, fixtures, and jigs for holding and placing patterns.
physical manipulation — Physical construction of templates and work aids
Construct patterns, templates, or other work aids.
#12047 · Core · 58% automatable
Select pattern materials such as wood, resin, and fiberglass.
decision support — Input material selection from specs; human approves
Select production input materials.
#12049 · Core · 10% automatable
Paint or lacquer patterns.
physical manipulation — Applying finishes requires hands-on coating work
Apply protective or decorative finishes to workpieces or products.
#12039 · Supplemental · 55% automatable
Program computerized numerical control machine tools.
decision support — Programming production equipment needs physical setup and verification
Program equipment to perform production tasks.
#21025 · Supplemental · 68% automatable
Create computer models of patterns or parts, using modeling software.
visual inspection — Generates template designs; aesthetic fit needs human review
Design templates or patterns.
#12048 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Apply plastic-impregnated fabrics or coats of sealing wax or lacquer to patterns used to produce plastic.
physical manipulation — Applying solutions to equipment is manual
Apply solutions to production equipment.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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