Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?

Task-level automation exposure for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers: 20 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

50% weighted task index

20 of 20 tasks scored

Median Salary

$74,450 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Very High

673,430 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+1.8% employment change

61,000 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$45,100 – $90,390

Highest medians

Wyoming $90,390
Connecticut $83,150
Rhode Island $81,650
New Jersey $81,110
District of Columbia $80,030

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $45,100
Virgin Islands $57,190
Guam $57,440
Arkansas $63,090
Florida $63,950

State figures come from the 51-1011 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 50%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 10%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 44%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 10%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 27/100 Moderate

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

20 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 39%

8 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 39%

8 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 21%

4 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#8450 · Core · 15% automatable

Enforce safety and sanitation regulations.

interpersonal — Enforcing rules requires human presence and authority

Enforce rules or regulations.
#20155 · Core · 82% automatable

Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked.

data analysis — Record production data into structured logs

Record operational or production data.
#8455 · Core · 18% automatable

Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions.

visual inspection — Physical inspection of production machinery in situ

Inspect production equipment.
#8452 · Core · 66% automatable

Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.

visual inspection — Blueprint setup reading partial, human confirms

Study blueprints or other instructions to determine equipment setup requirements.
#8454 · Core · 60% automatable

Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.

decision support — Sequence planning aided; production constraints human-verified

Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.
#8453 · Core · 55% automatable

Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments.

interpersonal — Colleague information exchange is relational, contextual

Exchange information with colleagues.
#8459 · Core · 35% automatable

Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers.

interpersonal — Equipment instruction requires live demonstration and correction

Instruct workers to use equipment or perform technical procedures.
#8457 · Core · 42% automatable

Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards.

visual inspection — Sensor/vision monitoring possible, but physical verification and accountability remain human

Monitor equipment operation to ensure proper functioning.
#8451 · Core · 30% automatable

Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators.

interpersonal — Directing production operations is human supervisory authority

Direct operational or production activities.
#20154 · Core · 35% automatable

Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers.

interpersonal — Equipment instruction requires live demonstration and correction

Instruct workers to use equipment or perform technical procedures.
#21207 · Core · 55% automatable

Evaluate employee performance.

decision support — Performance review aided; accountability and context human

Evaluate employee performance.
#8458 · Core · 55% automatable

Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances.

decision support — Diagnosis support good; physical resolution needs humans

Confer with others to resolve production problems or equipment malfunctions.
#8462 · Core · 60% automatable

Determine standards, budgets, production goals, and rates, based on company policies, equipment and labor availability, and workloads.

decision support — Sequence planning aided; production constraints human-verified

Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.
#8466 · Core · 65% automatable

Calculate labor and equipment requirements and production specifications, using standard formulas.

data analysis — Production requirement calc; human validates inputs

Calculate specific material, equipment, or labor requirements for production.
#8461 · Core · 59% automatable

Recommend or implement measures to motivate employees and to improve production methods, equipment performance, product quality, or efficiency.

decision support — Generates improvement options; human tailors and owns

Determine metal or plastic production methods. Advise others on ways to improve processes or products.
#8460 · Core · 82% automatable

Maintain operations data, such as time, production, and cost records, and prepare management reports of production results.

data analysis — Record production data into structured logs

Record operational or production data.
#8463 · Core · 75% automatable

Requisition materials, supplies, equipment parts, or repair services.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Order materials, supplies, or equipment.
#8465 · Core · 10% automatable

Set up and adjust machines and equipment.

physical manipulation — Hands-on equipment adjustment for performance

Adjust equipment to ensure optimal performance. Install equipment attachments or components.
#20156 · Core · 45% automatable

Recommend or execute personnel actions, such as hirings, evaluations, or promotions.

decision support — Broad HR work needs human judgment and accountability

Perform human resources activities.
#8467 · Core · 60% automatable

Plan and develop new products and production processes.

decision support — Sequence planning aided; production constraints human-verified

Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.
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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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