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Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?
AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Machinists?
Task-level automation exposure for Machinists: 29 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
30%
weighted task index
29 of 29 tasks scored
Median Salary
$58,750 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
High
287,050 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+1.0%
employment change
26,100 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 52 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$29,280 – $84,410
Highest medians
Hawaii $84,410
Alaska $77,670
District of Columbia $72,900
Massachusetts $67,270
Washington $66,160
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $29,280
West Virginia $47,350
Tennessee $49,600
South Dakota $50,890
Oklahoma $51,120
State figures come from the 51-4041 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 30%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 44%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 21%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 0%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 23/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
29 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%
4 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 30%
8 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 58%
17 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#20292 · Core · 50% automatable
Calculate dimensions or tolerances, using instruments, such as micrometers or vernier calipers.
data analysis — Dimension calculations from given specs
Calculate dimensions of workpieces, products, or equipment. Measure dimensions of completed products or workpieces to verify conformance to specifications.
#3094 · Core · 12% automatable
Machine parts to specifications, using machine tools, such as lathes, milling machines, shapers, or grinders.
physical manipulation — Grinding requires hands-on control and feel
Operate grinding equipment. Operate cutting equipment.
#3095 · Core · 28% automatable
Measure, examine, or test completed units to check for defects and ensure conformance to specifications, using precision instruments, such as micrometers.
physical manipulation — Hands-on dimensional measurement of workpieces
Measure dimensions of completed products or workpieces to verify conformance to specifications.
#20293 · Core · 12% automatable
Set up, adjust, or operate basic or specialized machine tools used to perform precision machining operations.
physical manipulation — Metal and plastic forming equipment run by hand
Operate metal or plastic forming equipment.
#3110 · Core · 55% automatable
Program computers or electronic instruments, such as numerically controlled machine tools.
decision support — Programming production equipment needs physical setup and verification
Program equipment to perform production tasks.
#20295 · Core · 66% automatable
Study sample parts, blueprints, drawings, or engineering information to determine methods or sequences of operations needed to fabricate products.
visual inspection — Blueprints need spatial reading, human verifies sequence
Review blueprints or other instructions to determine operational methods or sequences.
#3098 · Core · 42% automatable
Monitor the feed and speed of machines during the machining process.
visual inspection — Sensor/vision monitoring possible, but physical verification and accountability remain human
Monitor equipment operation to ensure proper functioning.
#20294 · Core · 10% automatable
Maintain machine tools in proper operational condition.
physical manipulation — Physical production equipment maintenance
Maintain production or processing equipment.
#3117 · Core · 4% automatable
Fit and assemble parts to make or repair machine tools.
physical manipulation — Machine tool assembly is skilled manual work
Assemble machine tools, parts, or fixtures.
#3097 · Core · 5% automatable
Align and secure holding fixtures, cutting tools, attachments, accessories, or materials onto machines.
physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup
Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment.
#3116 · Core · 55% automatable
Confer with numerical control programmers to check and ensure that new programs or machinery will function properly and that output will meet specifications.
interpersonal — Colleague information exchange is relational, contextual
Exchange information with colleagues.
#3106 · Core · 21% automatable
Operate equipment to verify operational efficiency.
physical manipulation — Operating production equipment physically on site
Conduct test runs of production equipment. Operate metal or plastic forming equipment.
#20297 · Core · 68% automatable
Evaluate machining procedures and recommend changes or modifications for improved efficiency or adaptability.
decision support — Generates improvement options; human tailors and owns
Advise others on ways to improve processes or products.
#20296 · Core · 42% automatable
Diagnose machine tool malfunctions to determine need for adjustments or repairs.
decision support — Diagnosis aided; physical inspection required
Diagnose equipment malfunctions.
#3119 · Core · 45% automatable
Design fixtures, tooling, or experimental parts to meet special engineering needs.
decision support — AI drafts tooling; machinist and engineer verify
Design tools, fixtures, or other devices for production equipment.
#19905 · Core · 5% automatable
Dispose of scrap or waste material in accordance with company policies and environmental regulations.
physical manipulation — Physical disposal of trash and waste
Dispose of trash or waste materials.
#3112 · Core · 55% automatable
Confer with engineering, supervisory, or manufacturing personnel to exchange technical information.
interpersonal — Colleague information exchange is relational, contextual
Exchange information with colleagues.
#3101 · Core · 15% automatable
Lay out, measure, and mark metal stock to display placement of cuts.
physical manipulation — Marking reference points requires hands-on measurement
Measure materials to mark reference points, cutting lines, or other indicators. Draw guide lines or markings on materials or workpieces using patterns or other references.
#19906 · Core · 8% automatable
Separate scrap waste and related materials for reuse, recycling, or disposal.
physical manipulation — Recyclable sorting is unstructured physical labor
Sort recyclable materials.
#3103 · Core · 15% automatable
Check work pieces to ensure that they are properly lubricated or cooled.
physical manipulation — Lubrication monitoring is hands-on physical work
Monitor lubrication of equipment or workpieces.
#3115 · Supplemental · 30% automatable
Support metalworking projects from planning and fabrication through assembly, inspection, and testing, using knowledge of machine functions, metal properties, and mathematics.
decision support — Method selection aided; engineering judgment human
Determine metal or plastic production methods. Prepare fabrics or materials for processing or production.
#3107 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Install repaired parts into equipment or install new equipment.
physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup
Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment. Install mechanical components in production equipment.
#3113 · Supplemental · 9% automatable
Dismantle machines or equipment, using hand tools or power tools to examine parts for defects and replace defective parts where needed.
physical manipulation — Hands-on removal and fitting of worn components
Disassemble equipment for maintenance or repair. Replace worn equipment components.
#3123 · Supplemental · 28% automatable
Test experimental models under simulated operating conditions, for purposes such as development, standardization, or feasibility of design.
physical manipulation — Operating production equipment physically on site
Test materials, solutions, or samples. Conduct test runs of production equipment.
#3122 · Supplemental · 9% automatable
Set up or operate metalworking, brazing, heat-treating, welding, or cutting equipment.
physical manipulation — Cutting equipment operation is manual and judgment-based
Operate welding equipment. Operate cutting equipment.
#3120 · Supplemental · 50% automatable
Prepare working sketches for the illustration of product appearance.
visual inspection — AI drafts blueprints; manufacturability and tolerances human
Create diagrams or blueprints for workpieces or products.
#3114 · Supplemental · 60% automatable
Establish work procedures for fabricating new structural products, using a variety of metalworking machines.
decision support — Sequence planning aided; production constraints human-verified
Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.
#3121 · Supplemental · 4% automatable
Install experimental parts or assemblies, such as hydraulic systems, electrical wiring, lubricants, or batteries into machines or mechanisms.
physical manipulation — Electromechanical assembly requires hands-on fitting
Assemble electromechanical or hydraulic systems.
#3109 · Supplemental · 68% automatable
Advise clients about the materials being used for finished products.
decision support — Generates improvement options; human tailors and owns
Advise others on ways to improve processes or products.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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