AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders?

Task-level automation exposure for Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders: 15 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

22% weighted task index

15 of 15 tasks scored

Median Salary

$54,430 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

16,780 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-2.9% employment change

1,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 36 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$39,610 – $75,880

Highest medians

Minnesota $75,880

New Jersey $75,020

New York $66,440

Oregon $64,410

Washington $62,850

Lowest medians

Mississippi $39,610

Arkansas $39,920

South Carolina $44,160

Kansas $44,800

Michigan $44,900

State figures come from the 51-4051 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 22%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 67%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 12%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 8%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 58/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

15 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 8%

1 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 13%

2 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 79%

12 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#10163 · Core · 13% automatable

Regulate supplies of fuel and air, or control flow of electric current and water coolant to heat furnaces and adjust temperatures.

physical manipulation — Manual gas flow control adjustment

Adjust equipment controls to regulate gas flow. Adjust equipment controls to regulate coolant flow. Adjust flow of electricity to tools or production equipment.

#10158 · Core · 37% automatable

Draw smelted metal samples from furnaces or kettles for analysis, and calculate types and amounts of materials needed to ensure that materials meet specifications.

data analysis — Production requirement calc; human validates inputs

Calculate specific material, equipment, or labor requirements for production. Collect samples of materials or products for testing.

#10162 · Core · 25% automatable

Weigh materials to be charged into furnaces, using scales.

physical manipulation — Physical measuring and dispensing of ingredients

Measure ingredients or substances to be used in production processes.

#10160 · Core · 82% automatable

Record production data, and maintain production logs.

data analysis — Record production data into structured logs

Record operational or production data.

#10165 · Core · 21% automatable

Observe air and temperature gauges or metal color and fluidity, and turn fuel valves or adjust controls to maintain required temperatures.

visual inspection — Instrument monitoring needs physical sensor presence

Monitor instruments to ensure proper production conditions. Adjust equipment controls to regulate gas flow. Adjust temperature controls of ovens or other heating equipment.

#10161 · Core · 10% automatable

Operate controls to move or discharge metal workpieces from furnaces.

physical manipulation — Crane/hoist operation demands real-time physical control

Operate cranes, hoists, or other moving or lifting equipment.

#10164 · Core · 18% automatable

Inspect furnaces and equipment to locate defects and wear.

visual inspection — Physical inspection of production machinery in situ

Inspect production equipment.

#10159 · Core · 4% automatable

Drain, transfer, or remove molten metal from furnaces, and place it into molds, using hoists, pumps, or ladles.

physical manipulation — Manual placement of materials into molds

Place materials into molds.

#10168 · Core · 7% automatable

Kindle fires, and shovel fuel and other materials into furnaces or onto conveyors by hand, with hoists, or by directing crane operators.

physical manipulation — Physical ignition of heating equipment

Load materials into production equipment. Ignite fuel to activate heating equipment. Signal others to coordinate work activities.

#10171 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Prepare material to load into furnaces, including cleaning, crushing, or applying chemicals, by using crushing machines, shovels, rakes, or sprayers.

physical manipulation — Manual cleaning of materials for production

Clean materials to prepare them for production.

#10167 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Remove impurities from the surface of molten metal, using strainers.

physical manipulation — Skimming molten metal, hazardous manual task

Skim impurities from molten metal.

#10166 · Supplemental · 38% automatable

Observe operations inside furnaces, using television screens, to ensure that problems do not occur.

visual inspection — Malfunction detection relies on live physical observation

Watch operating equipment to detect malfunctions.

#10169 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Sprinkle chemicals over molten metal to bring impurities to the surface.

physical manipulation — Skimming molten metal, hazardous manual task

Skim impurities from molten metal.

#10170 · Supplemental · 30% automatable

Direct work crews in the cleaning and repair of furnace walls and flooring.

interpersonal — Directing production operations is human supervisory authority

Direct operational or production activities.

#10172 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Scrape accumulations of metal oxides from floors, molds, and crucibles, and sift and store them for reclamation.

physical manipulation — Hands-on cleaning of equipment in unstructured settings

Clean production equipment.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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