AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Manicurists and Pedicurists?

Task-level automation exposure for Manicurists and Pedicurists: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

19% weighted task index

18 of 18 tasks scored

Median Salary

$35,760 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

152,770 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+9.2% employment change

21,900 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 50 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$22,900 – $60,790

Highest medians

Hawaii $60,790

Nebraska $56,940

Washington $49,900

Maine $48,540

Alaska $47,890

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $22,900

New Mexico $25,720

Georgia $26,910

Arkansas $27,690

Pennsylvania $27,990

State figures come from the 39-5092 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 19%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 73%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 17%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 6%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 5/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 10%

2 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 79%

14 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#8748 · Core · 10% automatable

Clean and sanitize tools and work environment.

physical manipulation — Tool cleaning is physical manipulation

Clean tools or equipment.

#8753 · Core · 5% automatable

Apply undercoat and clear or colored polish onto nails with brush.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8758 · Core · 72% automatable

Maintain supply inventories and records of client services.

text generation — Maintain client records; human owns sensitive judgment

Maintain client information or service records. Maintain supply or equipment inventories.

#8752 · Core · 5% automatable

Shape and smooth ends of nails, using scissors, files, or emery boards.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#20769 · Core · 5% automatable

Prepare nail cuticles with water and oil, using cuticle knives to push back cuticles and scissors or nippers to trim cuticles.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#20770 · Core · 5% automatable

Prepare customers' nails in soapy water, using swabs, files, and orange sticks.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8750 · Core · 5% automatable

Remove previously applied nail polish, using liquid remover and swabs.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#20771 · Core · 5% automatable

Use rotary abrasive wheels to shape and smooth nails or artificial extensions.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8749 · Core · 80% automatable

Schedule client appointments and accept payments.

decision support — Calendar scheduling automatable; exceptions need human judgment

Schedule appointments.

#20772 · Core · 22% automatable

Assess the condition of clients' hands, remove dead skin, and massage hands.

visual inspection — Skin/hair assessment needs in-person visual and tactile exam

Assess skin or hair conditions. Administer therapeutic massages.

#8760 · Core · 5% automatable

Roughen surfaces of fingernails, using abrasive wheel.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8754 · Core · 50% automatable

Advise clients on nail care and use of products and colors.

decision support — Medical/cosmetic advice needs accountable clinical judgment

Provide medical or cosmetic advice for clients.

#20773 · Core · 5% automatable

Treat nails to repair or improve strength and resilience by wrapping.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#20774 · Core · 5% automatable

Extend nails using powder, solvent, and paper forms attached to tips of customers' fingers to support and shape artificial nails.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8763 · Core · 5% automatable

Polish nails, using powdered polish and buffer.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8764 · Core · 5% automatable

Whiten underside of nails with white paste or pencils.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

#8761 · Core · 44% automatable

Promote and sell nail care products.

text generation — Promotional materials drafted; human executes outreach

Sell products or services. Promote products, services, or programs.

#8765 · Core · 5% automatable

Decorate clients' nails by piercing or attaching ornaments or designs.

physical manipulation — Nail shaping requires fine manual dexterity

Treat nails by shaping, decorating, or augmenting.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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