Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance?

Task-level automation exposure for Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance: 22 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

35% weighted task index

22 of 22 tasks scored

Median Salary

$97,150 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

2,340 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+6.1% employment change

600 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 6 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$82,400 – $143,230

Highest medians

Georgia $143,230
California $140,870
Louisiana $129,580
New York $97,150
District of Columbia $95,730

Lowest medians

Florida $82,400
District of Columbia $95,730
New York $97,150
Louisiana $129,580
California $140,870

State figures come from the 39-5091 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 35%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 44%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 21%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 5%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 6%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 5/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

22 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 28%

6 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 28%

7 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 44%

9 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

  • Revision 08/2025 · Occupational Expert

    Clean and sanitize supplies, such as makeup brushes.

    Replaced: Clean supplies such as makeup brushes.

Constituent Tasks

#24008 · Core · 8% automatable Revision

Clean supplies such as makeup brushes.

physical manipulation — Tool cleaning is physical manipulation

Clean equipment or supplies. Clean tools or equipment.
#14798 · Core · 5% automatable

Duplicate work precisely to replicate characters' appearances on a daily basis.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14800 · Core · 5% automatable

Apply makeup to enhance or alter the appearance of people appearing in productions such as movies.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14805 · Core · 68% automatable

Analyze a script, noting events that affect each character's appearance, so that plans can be made for each scene.

information retrieval — Extract requirements from production docs, human tailors

Review production information to determine costume or makeup requirements.
#14801 · Core · 5% automatable

Alter or maintain makeup during productions as necessary to compensate for lighting changes or to achieve continuity of effect.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14797 · Core · 55% automatable

Confer with stage or motion picture officials and performers to determine desired effects.

interpersonal — Live collaborative negotiation of production details needs human presence

Collaborate with others to determine production details.
#14806 · Core · 75% automatable

Requisition or acquire needed materials for special effects, including wigs, beards, and special cosmetics.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Order materials, supplies, or equipment.
#14814 · Core · 68% automatable

Study production information, such as character descriptions, period settings, and situations, to determine makeup requirements.

information retrieval — Extract requirements from production docs, human tailors

Review production information to determine costume or makeup requirements.
#14799 · Core · 45% automatable

Establish budgets, and work within budgetary limits.

data analysis — Budget management aided by AI, human owns decisions

Manage budgets for personal services operations.
#14802 · Core · 5% automatable

Select desired makeup shades from stock, or mix oil, grease, and coloring to achieve specific color effects.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14807 · Core · 80% automatable

Write makeup sheets and take photos to document specific looks and the products used to achieve the looks.

text generation — Prepare operational reports from data

Prepare operational reports or records.
#14804 · Core · 40% automatable

Assess performers' skin type to ensure that makeup will not cause break-outs or skin irritations.

visual inspection — Skin/hair assessment needs in-person visual and tactile exam

Assess skin or hair conditions.
#14809 · Core · 5% automatable

Attach prostheses to performers and apply makeup to create special features or effects, such as scars, aging, or illness.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14808 · Core · 68% automatable

Examine sketches, photographs, and plaster models to obtain desired character image depiction.

information retrieval — Extract requirements from production docs, human tailors

Review production information to determine costume or makeup requirements.
#14803 · Core · 5% automatable

Cleanse and tone the skin to prepare it for makeup application.

physical manipulation — Applying agents to hair and skin is hands-on care

Apply cleansing or conditioning agents to client hair, scalp, or skin.
#14810 · Core · 68% automatable

Evaluate environmental characteristics, such as venue size and lighting plans, to determine makeup requirements.

information retrieval — Extract requirements from production docs, human tailors

Review production information to determine costume or makeup requirements.
#14815 · Core · 5% automatable

Provide performers with makeup removal assistance after performances have been completed.

physical manipulation — Makeup application requires fine manual dexterity

Apply makeup to alter or enhance appearance.
#14811 · Core · 45% automatable

Design rubber or plastic prostheses that can be used to change performers' appearances.

text generation — Costume concepts generated; physical fabrication human

Design costumes or cosmetic effects for characters.
#14812 · Core · 45% automatable

Create character drawings or models, based upon independent research, to augment period production files.

text generation — Costume concepts generated; physical fabrication human

Design costumes or cosmetic effects for characters.
#14817 · Core · 35% automatable

Demonstrate products to clients, and provide instruction in makeup application.

interpersonal — Hygiene teaching is interpersonal and situational

Demonstrate activity techniques or equipment use. Teach health or hygiene practices.
#14813 · Supplemental · 55% automatable

Advise hairdressers on the hairstyles required for character parts.

interpersonal — Live collaborative negotiation of production details needs human presence

Collaborate with others to determine production details.
#14816 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Wash and reset wigs.

physical manipulation — Wig grooming needs fine manual dexterity

Groom wigs or hairpieces.
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Community Sentiment

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Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?

Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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