AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic?

Task-level automation exposure for Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic: 14 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

25% weighted task index

14 of 14 tasks scored

Median Salary

$63,870 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

5,970 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-3.4% employment change

500 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 20 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$25,170 – $87,570

Highest medians

Hawaii $87,570

Washington $85,300

Kansas $79,240

Oregon $75,020

Maine $74,530

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $25,170

Alabama $37,590

New Mexico $38,560

South Carolina $41,650

Tennessee $43,250

State figures come from the 51-4192 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 25%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 73%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 28%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 0%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 12/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

14 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 17%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 20%

3 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 63%

9 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#10298 · Core · 8% automatable

Mark curves, lines, holes, dimensions, and welding symbols onto workpieces, using scribes, soapstones, punches, and hand drills.

physical manipulation — Drawing guide lines on materials is hands-on

Draw guide lines or markings on materials or workpieces using patterns or other references.

#10302 · Core · 60% automatable

Plan locations and sequences of cutting, drilling, bending, rolling, punching, and welding operations, using compasses, protractors, dividers, and rules.

decision support — Sequence planning aided; production constraints human-verified

Plan production or operational procedures or sequences.

#10295 · Core · 6% automatable

Fit and align fabricated parts to be welded or assembled.

physical manipulation — Aligning parts for assembly needs hands and judgment

Align parts or workpieces to ensure proper assembly.

#10300 · Core · 6% automatable

Locate center lines and verify template positions, using measuring instruments such as gauge blocks, height gauges, and dial indicators.

physical manipulation — Aligning parts for assembly needs hands and judgment

Align parts or workpieces to ensure proper assembly.

#10296 · Core · 68% automatable

Plan and develop layouts from blueprints and templates, applying knowledge of trigonometry, design, effects of heat, and properties of metals.

visual inspection — Generates template designs; aesthetic fit needs human review

Design templates or patterns.

#10297 · Core · 7% automatable

Lay out and fabricate metal structural parts such as plates, bulkheads, and frames.

physical manipulation — Laying out parts is hands-on staging

Assemble metal or plastic parts or products. Lay out parts to prepare for assembly.

#10299 · Core · 40% automatable

Compute layout dimensions, and determine and mark reference points on metal stock or workpieces for further processing, such as welding and assembly.

data analysis — Dimension calculations from given specs

Calculate dimensions of workpieces, products, or equipment. Draw guide lines or markings on materials or workpieces using patterns or other references.

#10301 · Core · 10% automatable

Lift and position workpieces in relation to surface plates, manually or with hoists, and using parallel blocks and angle plates.

physical manipulation — Rigging and lifting loads with cranes is hands-on

Lift materials or workpieces using cranes or other lifting equipment.

#10304 · Core · 38% automatable

Design and prepare templates of wood, paper, or metal.

visual inspection — Generates template designs; aesthetic fit needs human review

Design templates or patterns. Construct patterns, templates, or other work aids.

#10307 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Install doors, hatches, brackets, and clips.

physical manipulation — Attaching accessories requires manual fitting

Attach decorative or functional accessories to products.

#10305 · Supplemental · 3% automatable

Brace parts in position within hulls or ships for riveting or welding.

physical manipulation — Assembling metal structures is hands-on

Assemble metal structures.

#10303 · Supplemental · 25% automatable

Inspect machined parts to verify conformance to specifications.

visual inspection — Material product inspection is physical and sensory

Inspect metal, plastic, or composite products.

#10306 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Add dimensional details to blueprints or drawings made by other workers.

visual inspection — AI drafts blueprints; manufacturability and tolerances human

Create diagrams or blueprints for workpieces or products.

#10308 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Apply pigment to layout surfaces, using paint brushes.

physical manipulation — Applying finishes requires hands-on coating work

Apply protective or decorative finishes to workpieces or products.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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