AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?

Task-level automation exposure for Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

24% weighted task index

18 of 18 tasks scored

Median Salary

$50,620 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

16,710 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-11.3% employment change

1,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 36 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$39,060 – $71,670

Highest medians

Colorado $71,670

Maine $64,800

Minnesota $61,000

Massachusetts $60,870

California $60,180

Lowest medians

Arkansas $39,060

Tennessee $40,730

Oregon $41,640

Oklahoma $43,680

Florida $44,710

State figures come from the 51-4034 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 24%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 66%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 5%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 0%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 2/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 10%

2 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 78%

14 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#11993 · Core · 12% automatable

Adjust machine controls and change tool settings to keep dimensions within specified tolerances.

physical manipulation — Metal and plastic forming equipment run by hand

Operate metal or plastic forming equipment.

#11994 · Core · 15% automatable

Move controls to set cutting speeds and depths and feed rates, and to position tools in relation to workpieces.

physical manipulation — Physical control setting for cutting

Set equipment controls to meet cutting specifications.

#11992 · Core · 73% automatable

Study blueprints, layouts or charts, and job orders for information on specifications and tooling instructions, and to determine material requirements and operational sequences.

information retrieval — Parse specs and materials from orders

Read work orders or other instructions to determine product specifications or materials requirements. Review blueprints or other instructions to determine operational methods or sequences.

#11991 · Core · 28% automatable

Inspect sample workpieces to verify conformance with specifications, using instruments such as gauges, micrometers, and dial indicators.

physical manipulation — Hands-on dimensional measurement of workpieces

Measure dimensions of completed products or workpieces to verify conformance to specifications.

#11999 · Core · 11% automatable

Replace worn tools, and sharpen dull cutting tools and dies, using bench grinders or cutter-grinding machines.

physical manipulation — Grinding requires hands-on control and feel

Operate grinding equipment. Replace worn equipment components. Sharpen cutting or grinding tools.

#12003 · Core · 5% automatable

Move toolholders manually or by turning handwheels, or engage automatic feeding mechanisms to feed tools to and along workpieces.

physical manipulation — Feeding materials into equipment is physical

Feed materials or products into or through equipment.

#12001 · Core · 72% automatable

Compute unspecified dimensions and machine settings, using knowledge of metal properties and shop mathematics.

data analysis — Dimension calculations from given specs

Calculate dimensions of workpieces, products, or equipment.

#11997 · Core · 30% automatable

Crank machines through cycles, stopping to adjust tool positions and machine controls to ensure specified timing, clearances, and tolerances.

physical manipulation — Operating production equipment physically on site

Conduct test runs of production equipment.

#12000 · Core · 5% automatable

Position, secure, and align cutting tools in toolholders on machines, using hand tools, and verify their positions with measuring instruments.

physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup

Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment.

#11995 · Core · 19% automatable

Start lathe or turning machines and observe operations to ensure that specifications are met.

visual inspection — Physical product flaw monitoring is on-machine

Monitor equipment operation to ensure that products are not flawed. Operate cutting equipment.

#23998 · Core · 48% automatable

Program computer numerical control machines.

decision support — Programming production equipment needs physical setup and verification

Program equipment to perform production tasks. Program robotic equipment.

#20923 · Core · 15% automatable

Refill, change, and monitor the level of fluids, such as oil and coolant, in machines.

physical manipulation — Basic equipment maintenance requires hands-on work

Perform basic equipment maintenance.

#23999 · Core · 5% automatable

Clean work area.

physical manipulation — Hands-on cleaning of work areas

Clean work areas.

#11998 · Core · 8% automatable

Lift metal stock or workpieces manually or using hoists, and position and secure them in machines, using fasteners and hand tools.

physical manipulation — Rigging and lifting loads with cranes is hands-on

Mount materials or workpieces onto production equipment. Lift materials or workpieces using cranes or other lifting equipment.

#12002 · Core · 5% automatable

Install holding fixtures, cams, gears, and stops to control stock and tool movement, using hand tools, power tools, and measuring instruments.

physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup

Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment. Install mechanical components in production equipment.

#11996 · Core · 55% automatable

Select cutting tools and tooling instructions, according to written specifications or knowledge of metal properties and shop mathematics.

decision support — Equipment selection against specs; human verifies fit

Select production equipment according to product specifications.

#12005 · Core · 5% automatable

Mount attachments, such as relieving or tracing attachments, to perform operations, such as duplicating contours of templates or trimming workpieces.

physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup

Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment.

#12004 · Core · 15% automatable

Turn valve handles to direct the flow of coolant onto work areas or to coat disks with spinning compounds.

physical manipulation — Physical valve/control manipulation for coolant

Adjust equipment controls to regulate coolant flow.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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