AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic?

Task-level automation exposure for Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic: 23 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

23% weighted task index

23 of 23 tasks scored

Median Salary

$48,750 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

14,000 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-9.5% employment change

1,100 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 37 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$35,180 – $61,990

Highest medians

Washington $61,990

Oregon $60,280

Colorado $58,300

West Virginia $56,880

Virginia $55,070

Lowest medians

Louisiana $35,180

Arkansas $37,590

Minnesota $41,100

Texas $41,690

Georgia $44,050

State figures come from the 51-4191 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 23%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 61%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 12%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 6%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 9/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

23 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 13%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 12%

3 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 75%

18 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#12087 · Core · 66% automatable

Read production schedules and work orders to determine processing sequences, furnace temperatures, and heat cycle requirements for objects to be heat-treated.

visual inspection — Blueprint setup reading partial, human confirms

Study blueprints or other instructions to determine equipment setup requirements. Review blueprints or other instructions to determine operational methods or sequences.

#12088 · Core · 82% automatable

Record times that parts are removed from furnaces to document that objects have attained specified temperatures for specified times.

data analysis — Record production data into structured logs

Record operational or production data.

#12094 · Core · 18% automatable

Adjust controls to maintain temperatures and heating times, using thermal instruments and charts, dials and gauges of furnaces, and color of stock in furnaces to make setting determinations.

physical manipulation — Manual temperature control adjustment

Adjust temperature controls of ovens or other heating equipment.

#12107 · Core · 6% automatable

Start conveyors and open furnace doors to load stock, or signal crane operators to uncover soaking pits and lower ingots into them.

physical manipulation — Embodied signaling in shared physical workspace

Load items into ovens or furnaces. Signal others to coordinate work activities.

#12089 · Core · 15% automatable

Set up and operate or tend machines, such as furnaces, baths, flame-hardening machines, and electronic induction machines, that harden, anneal, and heat-treat metal.

physical manipulation — Physical control of heating/drying equipment

Operate heating or drying equipment.

#12091 · Core · 6% automatable

Remove parts from furnaces after specified times, and air dry or cool parts in water, oil brine, or other baths.

physical manipulation — Physically extracting parts from production equipment

Remove products or workpieces from production equipment.

#12099 · Core · 15% automatable

Move controls to light gas burners and to adjust gas and water flow and flame temperature.

physical manipulation — Manual gas flow control adjustment

Adjust equipment controls to regulate gas flow.

#12093 · Core · 35% automatable

Instruct new workers in machine operation.

interpersonal — Equipment instruction requires live demonstration and correction

Instruct workers to use equipment or perform technical procedures.

#12095 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Determine flame temperatures, current frequencies, heating cycles, and induction heating coils needed, based on degree of hardness required and properties of stock to be treated.

decision support — Method selection aided; engineering judgment human

Determine metal or plastic production methods.

#12090 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Determine types and temperatures of baths and quenching media needed to attain specified part hardness, toughness, and ductility, using heat-treating charts and knowledge of methods, equipment, and metals.

decision support — Method selection aided; engineering judgment human

Determine metal or plastic production methods.

#12104 · Supplemental · 25% automatable

Examine parts to ensure metal shades and colors conform to specifications, using knowledge of metal heat-treating.

visual inspection — Material product inspection is physical and sensory

Inspect metal, plastic, or composite products.

#12112 · Supplemental · 15% automatable

Set and adjust speeds of reels and conveyors for prescribed time cycles to pass parts through continuous furnaces.

physical manipulation — Physical control of heating/drying equipment

Operate heating or drying equipment.

#12096 · Supplemental · 3% automatable

Load parts into containers and place containers on conveyors to be inserted into furnaces, or insert parts into furnaces.

physical manipulation — Manual loading into hot ovens or furnaces

Load items into ovens or furnaces.

#12102 · Supplemental · 25% automatable

Test parts for hardness, using hardness testing equipment, or by examining and feeling samples.

visual inspection — Material product inspection is physical and sensory

Inspect metal, plastic, or composite products.

#12101 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Signal forklift operators to deposit or extract containers of parts into and from furnaces and quenching rinse tanks.

physical manipulation — Embodied signaling in shared physical workspace

Signal others to coordinate work activities.

#12097 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Mount workpieces in fixtures, on arbors, or between centers of machines.

physical manipulation — Mounting workpieces is physical loading

Mount materials or workpieces onto production equipment.

#12100 · Supplemental · 18% automatable

Reduce heat when processing is complete to allow parts to cool in furnaces or machinery.

physical manipulation — Manual temperature control adjustment

Adjust temperature controls of ovens or other heating equipment.

#12113 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Mount fixtures and industrial coils on machines, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Mounting tools requires hands-on setup

Mount attachments or tools onto production equipment.

#12108 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Heat billets, bars, plates, rods, and other stock to specified temperatures preparatory to forging, rolling, or processing, using oil, gas, or electrical furnaces.

physical manipulation — Heating workpieces requires physical operation

Heat material or workpieces to prepare for or complete production.

#12092 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Position stock in furnaces, using tongs, chain hoists, or pry bars.

physical manipulation — Positioning raw materials is physical loading

Position raw materials on processing or production equipment.

#12106 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Repair, replace, and maintain furnace equipment as needed, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Hands-on removal and fitting of worn components

Replace worn equipment components. Repair production equipment or tools. Maintain production or processing equipment.

#12109 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Clean oxides and scales from parts or fittings, using steam sprays or chemical and water baths.

physical manipulation — Hands-on cleaning of equipment in unstructured settings

Clean production equipment.

#12111 · Supplemental · 12% automatable

Stamp heat-treatment identification marks on parts, using hammers and punches.

physical manipulation — Marking workpieces is hands-on physical task

Mark products, workpieces, or equipment with identifying information.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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