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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Couriers and Messengers?
Task-level automation exposure for Couriers and Messengers: 16 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
30%
weighted task index
16 of 16 tasks scored
Median Salary
$39,200 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Medium
68,640 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+8.0%
employment change
23,800 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$21,840 – $46,520
Highest medians
Nevada $46,520
Washington $46,500
Vermont $45,600
District of Columbia $45,210
Oregon $45,170
Lowest medians
Virgin Islands $21,840
Puerto Rico $23,160
Guam $26,400
South Dakota $31,650
Wyoming $31,680
State figures come from the 43-5021 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 30%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 53%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 19%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 11%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 23/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
16 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 25%
4 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 9%
2 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 65%
10 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#20903 · Core · 10% automatable
Deliver and pick up medical records, lab specimens, and medications to and from hospitals and other medical facilities.
situated mobility — Physical delivery of items in real environments
Deliver items.
#7010 · Core · 5% automatable
Walk, ride bicycles, drive vehicles, or use public conveyances to reach destinations to deliver messages or materials.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#7011 · Core · 4% automatable
Load vehicles with listed goods, ensuring goods are loaded correctly and taking precautions with hazardous goods.
physical manipulation — Physical loading of materials or equipment
Load materials or equipment.
#7013 · Core · 60% automatable
Receive messages or materials to be delivered, and information on recipients, such as names, addresses, telephone numbers, and delivery instructions, communicated via telephone, two-way radio, or in person.
interpersonal — Relaying information needs real-time human channel
Relay information between personnel.
#7015 · Core · 10% automatable
Deliver messages and items, such as newspapers, documents, and packages, between establishment departments and to other establishments and private homes.
situated mobility — Physical delivery of items in real environments
Deliver items.
#7018 · Core · 85% automatable
Record information, such as items received and delivered and recipients' responses to messages.
data analysis — Record shipping information into structured fields
Record shipping information.
#7012 · Core · 4% automatable
Unload and sort items collected along delivery routes.
physical manipulation — Physical unloading of materials and equipment
Unload materials or equipment.
#7016 · Core · 12% automatable
Sort items to be delivered according to the delivery route.
physical manipulation — Sorting physical mail requires hands-on handling
Sort mail.
#7014 · Core · 75% automatable
Plan and follow the most efficient routes for delivering goods.
data analysis — Routing analysis from shipping data; human approves
Analyze shipping information to make routing decisions.
#7020 · Core · 10% automatable
Perform routine maintenance on delivery vehicles, such as monitoring fluid levels and replenishing fuel.
physical manipulation — Physical maintenance of mechanical equipment
Maintain mechanical equipment.
#7017 · Supplemental · 50% automatable
Obtain signatures and payments, or arrange for recipients to make payments.
information retrieval — Drafting aided; authorized signature human
Obtain written authorization to perform activities.
#7025 · Supplemental · 4% automatable
Unload goods from large trucks, and load them onto smaller delivery vehicles.
physical manipulation — Physical lifting and loading of shipments
Load shipments, belongings, or materials. Load or unload materials used in construction or extraction. Unload materials or equipment.
#7022 · Supplemental · 18% automatable
Open, sort, and distribute incoming mail.
physical manipulation — Physically distributing materials to people
Sort mail. Distribute materials to employees or customers. Distribute incoming mail.
#7019 · Supplemental · 48% automatable
Check with home offices after completed deliveries to confirm deliveries and collections and to receive instructions for other deliveries.
interpersonal — Real-time coworker coordination is relational work
Confer with coworkers to coordinate work activities.
#7021 · Supplemental · 70% automatable
Use telephone to deliver verbal messages.
text generation — Routine customer notifications largely automatable
Provide notifications to customers or patrons.
#7023 · Supplemental · 33% automatable
Perform general office or clerical work, such as filing materials, operating duplicating machines, or running errands.
physical manipulation — Filing physical documents requires hands in the world
Operate office equipment. File documents or records.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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