Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Baristas?

Task-level automation exposure for Baristas: 19 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

24% weighted task index

19 of 19 tasks scored

Median Salary

$31,200 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Very High

3,854,050 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+5.8% employment change

827,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$20,770 – $42,280

Highest medians

California $42,280
Washington $37,710
District of Columbia $37,430
Colorado $36,270
Vermont $36,030

Lowest medians

Guam $20,770
Puerto Rico $22,030
Mississippi $22,610
Louisiana $22,800
Oklahoma $23,430

State figures come from the 35-3023 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 24%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 63%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 5%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 15%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 0/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

19 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 15%

3 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 21%

4 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 64%

12 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#17582 · Core · 6% automatable

Clean or sanitize work areas, utensils, or equipment.

physical manipulation — Hands-on dishwashing of physical tableware

Clean food service areas. Clean tableware.
#17588 · Core · 70% automatable

Receive and process customer payments.

data analysis — Billing and payment processing largely automated

Process customer bills or payments.
#17581 · Core · 6% automatable

Prepare or serve hot or cold beverages, such as coffee, espresso drinks, blended coffees, or teas.

physical manipulation — Hands-on beverage prep in unpredictable kitchen space

Serve food or beverages. Prepare hot or cold beverages.
#17591 · Core · 63% automatable

Take customer orders and convey them to other employees for preparation.

interpersonal — Order taking automatable; customer rapport partly human

Communicate dining or order details to kitchen personnel. Take customer orders.
#17583 · Core · 5% automatable

Clean service or seating areas.

physical manipulation — Physical cleaning of food service surfaces

Clean food service areas.
#17597 · Core · 5% automatable

Prepare or serve menu items, such as sandwiches or salads.

physical manipulation — Cooking requires hands-on manipulation of real food

Serve food or beverages. Cook foods.
#17594 · Core · 5% automatable

Wrap, label, or date food items for sale.

physical manipulation — Hands-on packing of varied goods

Package food or supplies.
#17584 · Core · 42% automatable

Check temperatures of freezers, refrigerators, or heating equipment to ensure proper functioning.

decision support — AI can interpret readings but hands-on assessment is human

Assess equipment functioning.
#17592 · Core · 5% automatable

Take out garbage.

physical manipulation — Physical collection and removal of trash

Remove trash.
#17585 · Core · 40% automatable

Describe menu items to customers, or suggest products that might appeal to them.

interpersonal — Menu presentation is live service interaction

Present food or beverage information or menus to customers.
#17596 · Core · 30% automatable

Demonstrate the use of retail equipment, such as espresso machines.

physical manipulation — Food prep training is hands-on demonstration

Train food preparation or food service personnel.
#17586 · Core · 42% automatable

Order, receive, or stock supplies or retail products.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Store supplies or goods in kitchens or storage areas. Order materials, supplies, or equipment.
#17589 · Core · 4% automatable

Serve prepared foods, such as muffins, biscotti, or bagels.

physical manipulation — Carrying and serving food by hand

Serve food or beverages.
#17590 · Core · 8% automatable

Stock customer service stations with paper products or beverage preparation items.

physical manipulation — Physically stocking serving stations and dining areas

Stock serving stations or dining areas with food or supplies.
#17587 · Core · 40% automatable

Provide customers with product details, such as coffee blend or preparation descriptions.

interpersonal — Menu presentation is live service interaction

Present food or beverage information or menus to customers.
#17598 · Core · 6% automatable

Set up or restock product displays.

physical manipulation — Setting up displays requires hands-on placement

Set up merchandise displays.
#17593 · Core · 15% automatable

Weigh, grind, or pack coffee beans for customers.

physical manipulation — Physical measuring of ingredients by hand

Measure ingredients. Package food or supplies.
#17595 · Supplemental · 72% automatable

Create signs to advertise store products or events.

text generation — Promotional copy drafted; brand strategy human

Write advertising or promotional material.
#17599 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Slice fruits, vegetables, desserts, or meats for use in food service.

physical manipulation — Hands-on food cutting

Cut cooked or raw foods.
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Community Sentiment

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Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?

Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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