Community Sentiment
Do you agree?
Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?
AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Bakers?
Task-level automation exposure for Bakers: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
24%
weighted task index
18 of 18 tasks scored
Median Salary
$37,160 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
High
236,200 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+5.5%
employment change
36,500 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$22,170 – $46,710
Highest medians
Hawaii $46,710
Washington $46,140
District of Columbia $44,040
California $43,120
Colorado $40,650
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $22,170
Guam $24,320
Louisiana $28,020
West Virginia $28,480
Mississippi $28,920
State figures come from the 51-3011 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 24%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 60%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 26%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 4%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 7/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 8%
2 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 22%
4 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 70%
12 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#11918 · Core · 25% automatable
Measure or weigh flour or other ingredients to prepare batters, doughs, fillings, or icings, using scales or graduated containers.
physical manipulation — Physical measuring and dispensing of ingredients
Measure ingredients or substances to be used in production processes.
#11916 · Core · 18% automatable
Set oven temperatures, and place items into hot ovens for baking.
physical manipulation — Manual temperature control adjustment
Adjust temperature controls of ovens or other heating equipment.
#20819 · Core · 35% automatable
Check products for quality, and identify damaged or expired goods.
visual inspection — Food quality needs taste, smell, physical inspection
Evaluate quality of food ingredients or prepared foods.
#11924 · Core · 19% automatable
Check equipment to ensure that it meets health and safety regulations, and perform maintenance or cleaning, as necessary.
visual inspection — Sensor/vision monitoring possible, but physical verification and accountability remain human
Monitor equipment operation to ensure proper functioning. Clean production equipment. Maintain production or processing equipment.
#11922 · Core · 45% automatable
Adapt the quantity of ingredients to match the amount of items to be baked.
decision support — Food production methods need practical judgment
Determine food production methods.
#11920 · Core · 10% automatable
Place dough in pans, molds, or on sheets, and bake in production ovens or on grills.
physical manipulation — Hands-on cooking with heat and perishable materials
Operate cooking, baking, or other food preparation equipment.
#11915 · Core · 19% automatable
Observe color of products being baked, and adjust oven temperatures, humidity, or conveyor speeds accordingly.
visual inspection — Food product inspection is sensory and hands-on
Inspect food products. Adjust temperature controls of ovens or other heating equipment.
#11926 · Core · 10% automatable
Set time and speed controls for mixing machines, blending machines, or steam kettles so that ingredients will be mixed or cooked according to instructions.
physical manipulation — Hands-on cooking with heat and perishable materials
Operate cooking, baking, or other food preparation equipment.
#11917 · Core · 4% automatable
Combine measured ingredients in bowls of mixing, blending, or cooking machinery.
physical manipulation — Hands-on loading of materials into equipment
Load materials into production equipment.
#11921 · Core · 35% automatable
Check the quality of raw materials to ensure that standards and specifications are met.
visual inspection — Food quality needs taste, smell, physical inspection
Evaluate quality of food ingredients or prepared foods.
#11919 · Core · 4% automatable
Roll, knead, cut, or shape dough to form sweet rolls, pie crusts, tarts, cookies, or other products.
physical manipulation — Shaping clay or dough is tactile craft
Shape clay or dough to create products.
#11925 · Core · 10% automatable
Decorate baked goods, such as cakes or pastries.
physical manipulation — Applying finishes requires hands-on coating work
Apply protective or decorative finishes to workpieces or products.
#11923 · Core · 10% automatable
Apply glazes, icings, or other toppings to baked goods, using spatulas or brushes.
physical manipulation — Applying finishes requires hands-on coating work
Apply protective or decorative finishes to workpieces or products.
#11929 · Supplemental · 75% automatable
Order or receive supplies or equipment.
decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend
Order materials, supplies, or equipment.
#11927 · Supplemental · 82% automatable
Prepare or maintain inventory or production records.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Record operational or production data.
#11928 · Supplemental · 30% automatable
Direct or coordinate bakery deliveries.
interpersonal — Directing production operations is human supervisory authority
Direct operational or production activities.
#11930 · Supplemental · 12% automatable
Operate slicing or wrapping machines.
physical manipulation — Cutting equipment operation is manual and judgment-based
Operate cutting equipment.
#11931 · Supplemental · 40% automatable
Develop new recipes for baked goods.
decision support — Recipe ideas generated; taste and kitchen execution human
Create new recipes or food presentations.
Embed this calculator on your site ↓
Bloggers & authors: Embed this interactive calculator directly in your articles or comparison guides. It loads dynamically via a responsive iframe (auto-resizing to prevent double scrollbars) and provides a direct, high-value tool for your audience.
<div class="giniloh-calculator-embed" data-calculator="bakers"></div>
<script src="https://giniloh.com/embed.js" async></script> Method
How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
See the full method →Related Article
Best AI Proof Jobs in a Changing Market
Worried robots are coming for your paycheck? You’re not alone—but the real story is far more hopeful. This guide cuts through the scare headlines to reveal exactly where smart, sustainable career opportunities exist right now. We’ve curated a list of true ai proof jobs—roles in healthcare, skilled trades, and cybersecurity that not only survive automation but thrive because of human judgment and empathy. You’ll get specific, money-making data on projected growth (the BLS says wind turbine technicians, for instance, will grow 44% by 2032), real salary ranges from active job listings, and a simple self-assessment quiz to identify your own most resilient path. Plus, we name companies hiring today and the niche job boards they use. Stop worrying and start planning—your secure career is closer than you think.
Read Article ->