AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace School Bus Monitors?

Task-level automation exposure for School Bus Monitors: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

28% weighted task index

18 of 18 tasks scored

Median Salary

$35,100 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Medium

78,420 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-1.9% employment change

13,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 50 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$23,500 – $42,330

Highest medians

Washington $42,330

District of Columbia $41,720

Oregon $40,900

Hawaii $40,250

Vermont $39,020

Lowest medians

Mississippi $23,500

Louisiana $25,250

South Carolina $26,240

Tennessee $27,250

Ohio $28,110

State figures come from the 33-9094 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 28%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 10%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 46%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 6%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 34/100 Moderate

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 6%

1 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 27%

5 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 67%

12 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#23083 · Core · 15% automatable

Buckle seatbelts or fasten wheelchair tie-down straps to secure passengers for transportation.

interpersonal — In-person comfort and safety assurance

Assist customers to ensure comfort or safety.

#23087 · Core · 10% automatable

Escort young children across roads or highways.

situated mobility — Roadside physical assistance in unpredictable settings

Assist motorists or pedestrians.

#23082 · Core · 22% automatable

Assist children with disabilities or children with psychological, emotional, or behavioral issues with boarding and exiting the school bus.

interpersonal — In-person special-needs teaching and supervision

Assist students with special educational needs.

#23091 · Core · 30% automatable

Monitor the conduct of students to maintain discipline and safety.

interpersonal — Social development and health observation need human presence

Monitor student behavior, social development, or health.

#23088 · Core · 10% automatable

Evacuate students from the school bus in emergency situations.

interpersonal — In-person comfort and safety assurance

Assist customers to ensure comfort or safety. Assist patrons with entering or exiting vehicles or other forms of transportation.

#23085 · Core · 5% automatable

Direct students boarding and exiting the school bus.

physical manipulation — Physically assisting boarding and exiting

Assist patrons with entering or exiting vehicles or other forms of transportation. Assist passengers during vehicle boarding.

#23086 · Core · 5% automatable

Direct students evacuating the bus during safety drills.

physical manipulation — Physically assisting boarding and exiting

Assist patrons with entering or exiting vehicles or other forms of transportation.

#23093 · Core · 8% automatable

Operate a wheelchair lift to load or unload wheelchairs.

physical manipulation — Physical assistance for disabled individuals

Assist disabled or incapacitated individuals.

#23095 · Core · 55% automatable

Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations to dispatchers or other bus drivers, using phones or mobile two-way radios.

interpersonal — Emergency notification needs live accountable delivery

Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.

#23094 · Core · 30% automatable

Prevent or defuse altercations between students.

interpersonal — Mediation requires live facilitation and trust

Mediate disputes.

#23096 · Core · 55% automatable

Respond to students' questions, requests, or complaints.

information retrieval — Transport info lookup automatable; live assistance human

Provide transportation information to passengers or customers.

#23089 · Core · 35% automatable

Guide the driver when the bus is moving in reverse gear.

situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical

Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.

#23097 · Core · 35% automatable

Talk to children's parents or guardians about problematic behaviors, emotional or developmental problems, or related issues.

interpersonal — Child development discussion needs live human presence

Discuss child development and behavior with parents or guardians. Provide counsel, comfort, or encouragement to individuals or families.

#23098 · Core · 82% automatable

Write and submit reports that include data such as the number of passengers or trips, hours worked, mileage driven, or fuel consumed.

text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info

Record operational details of travel.

#23081 · Core · 55% automatable

Announce routes or stops.

information retrieval — Transport info lookup automatable; live assistance human

Provide transportation information to passengers or customers.

#23084 · Core · 5% automatable

Clean school bus interiors by picking up waste, wiping down windows, or vacuuming.

physical manipulation — Hands-on washing of vehicle surfaces and parts

Clean vehicles or vehicle components.

#23090 · Supplemental · 33% automatable

Monitor for trains at railroad crossings and signal the bus driver when it is safe to proceed.

situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical

Monitor traffic signals. Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.

#23092 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Open and close school bus doors for students.

physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation

Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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