AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives?

Task-level automation exposure for First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives: 20 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

45% weighted task index

20 of 20 tasks scored

Median Salary

$106,040 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

154,610 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+3.3% employment change

10,600 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 53 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$50,300 – $163,960

Highest medians

California $163,960

New Jersey $142,990

Hawaii $140,590

Alaska $137,320

Washington $136,280

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $50,300

Mississippi $59,860

Arkansas $62,290

Louisiana $70,470

South Carolina $73,700

State figures come from the 33-1012 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 45%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 5%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 45%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 15%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 59/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

20 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 31%

6 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 25%

5 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 44%

9 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

New 08/2024 · Incumbent

Read and review subordinates' reports to ensure legal standards are met and there are no mistakes.

Constituent Tasks

#566 · Core · 30% automatable

Supervise and coordinate the investigation of criminal cases, offering guidance and expertise to investigators, and ensuring that procedures are conducted in accordance with laws and regulations.

decision support — Criminal investigation direction needs accountable judgment

Direct criminal investigations.

#574 · Core · 78% automatable

Prepare work schedules and assign duties to subordinates.

decision support — Routine schedule generation from stated constraints

Prepare activity or work schedules.

#571 · Core · 30% automatable

Direct collection, preparation, and handling of evidence and personal property of prisoners.

physical manipulation — Forensic evidence handling requires chain-of-custody hands

Process forensic or legal evidence in accordance with procedures.

#567 · Core · 25% automatable

Investigate and resolve personnel problems within organization and charges of misconduct against staff.

interpersonal — Live conflict resolution needs presence and trust

Resolve interpersonal conflicts.

#564 · Core · 42% automatable

Explain police operations to subordinates to assist them in performing their job duties.

interpersonal — Live instruction and hands-on coaching require human presence

Train employees in proper work procedures.

#569 · Core · 79% automatable

Maintain logs, prepare reports, and direct the preparation, handling, and maintenance of departmental records.

data analysis — Maintain operational records in structured systems

Maintain operational records. Write operational reports.

#565 · Core · 62% automatable

Inform personnel of changes in regulations and policies, implications of new or amended laws, and new techniques of police work.

information retrieval — AI retrieves and explains regulations; human confirms

Inform others about laws or regulations.

#568 · Core · 42% automatable

Train staff in proper police work procedures.

interpersonal — Live instruction and hands-on coaching require human presence

Train employees in proper work procedures.

#575 · Core · 25% automatable

Discipline staff for violation of department rules and regulations.

interpersonal — Law enforcement direction is live authority-bearing command

Direct law enforcement activities.

#570 · Core · 40% automatable

Monitor and evaluate the job performance of subordinates, and authorize promotions and transfers.

decision support — Performance review aided; accountability and context human

Evaluate employee performance. Direct law enforcement activities.

#577 · Core · 80% automatable

Review contents of written orders to ensure adherence to legal requirements.

text generation — Policy compliance document review, human owns final call

Review documents or materials for compliance with policies or regulations.

#573 · Core · 3% automatable

Conduct raids and order detention of witnesses and suspects for questioning.

physical manipulation — Physically detaining suspects

Detain suspects or witnesses. Apprehend criminal suspects.

#576 · Core · 30% automatable

Cooperate with court personnel and officials from other law enforcement agencies and testify in court, as necessary.

interpersonal — Law enforcement info sharing needs trusted humans

Testify at legal or legislative proceedings. Collaborate with law enforcement or security agencies to share information.

#581 · Core · 45% automatable

Meet with civic, educational, and community groups to develop community programs and events, and to discuss law enforcement subjects.

interpersonal — Program development with outside groups needs humans

Collaborate with outside groups to develop programs or projects.

#578 · Core · 21% automatable

Inspect facilities, supplies, vehicles, and equipment to ensure conformance to standards.

visual inspection — Security/safety walkthrough requires physical presence

Inspect facilities to ensure compliance with security or safety regulations. Inspect equipment to ensure safety or proper functioning.

#582 · Core · 25% automatable

Direct release or transfer of prisoners.

interpersonal — Law enforcement direction is live authority-bearing command

Direct law enforcement activities.

#580 · Core · 70% automatable

Requisition and issue equipment and supplies.

data analysis — Materials inventory records and forecasting automatable

Maintain inventories of materials, equipment, or products.

#572 · Supplemental · 56% automatable

Develop, implement, and revise departmental policies and procedures.

decision support — AI proposes procedures; human validates fit

Develop organizational policies or programs. Develop organizational methods or procedures.

#579 · Supplemental · 72% automatable

Prepare news releases and respond to police correspondence.

text generation — Incident reports drafted from facts; human reviews

Prepare investigation or incident reports.

#583 · Supplemental · 25% automatable

Prepare budgets and manage expenditures of department funds.

interpersonal — Law enforcement direction is live authority-bearing command

Direct law enforcement activities.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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