AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Bicycle Repairers?

Task-level automation exposure for Bicycle Repairers: 18 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

21% weighted task index

18 of 18 tasks scored

Median Salary

$42,780 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

12,170 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-5.7% employment change

1,200 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 42 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$24,140 – $53,970

Highest medians

Arizona $53,970

New Jersey $49,260

Wyoming $49,030

Washington $48,220

New York $47,750

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $24,140

Georgia $30,870

South Dakota $31,500

Indiana $33,010

Ohio $33,640

State figures come from the 49-3091 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 21%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 75%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 7%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 7%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 24/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

18 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 13%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 5%

1 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 82%

15 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

New 08/2026 · Incumbent

Inspect and repair tubeless tire systems and accessories.
New 08/2026 · Incumbent

Install tubeless tire systems and accessories.

Constituent Tasks

#5184 · Core · 8% automatable

Install and adjust speed and gear mechanisms.

physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle component adjustment

Install vehicle parts or accessories. Adjust vehicle components according to specifications.

#20915 · Core · 8% automatable

Install and adjust brakes and brake pads.

physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle component adjustment

Install vehicle parts or accessories. Adjust vehicle components according to specifications.

#20918 · Core · 5% automatable

Install new tires and tubes.

physical manipulation — Vehicle part installation is physical labor

Install vehicle parts or accessories.

#5185 · Core · 4% automatable

Assemble new bicycles.

physical manipulation — Mechanical assembly needs hands and tools

Assemble mechanical components or machine parts.

#24056 · Core · 69% automatable

Estimate costs of repairing bicycles and write service tickets.

text generation — Standard financial documents drafted from data

Estimate maintenance service requirements or costs. Calculate requirements for equipment installation or repair projects. Prepare financial documents.

#5186 · Core · 5% automatable

Install, repair, and replace equipment or accessories, such as handlebars, stands, lights, and seats.

physical manipulation — Vehicle part installation is physical labor

Install vehicle parts or accessories.

#20919 · Core · 15% automatable

Clean and lubricate bicycle parts.

physical manipulation — Basic equipment maintenance requires hands-on work

Perform basic equipment maintenance.

#20920 · Core · 75% automatable

Order bicycle parts.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Order materials, supplies, or equipment.

#20917 · Core · 32% automatable

Sell bicycles and accessories.

interpersonal — Closing sales requires persuasion and accountability

Sell products or services.

#5187 · Core · 8% automatable

Align wheels.

physical manipulation — Physical alignment of machinery requires hands

Align equipment or machinery.

#24057 · Core · 18% automatable

Make adjustments to bicycles to improve customer fit and riding position.

physical manipulation — Physical body measurement for fit

Measure clients to ensure proper product fit. Adjust equipment to ensure optimal performance.

#5188 · Core · 8% automatable

Disassemble axles to repair, adjust, and replace defective parts, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Disassembly requires hands-on tool use

Disassemble equipment for maintenance or repair.

#20916 · Core · 55% automatable

Help customers select bicycles that fit their body sizes and intended bicycle uses.

interpersonal — Technical explanation to customers needs live interaction

Explain technical product or service information to customers.

#20921 · Core · 4% automatable

Build wheels by cutting and threading new spokes.

physical manipulation — Mechanical assembly needs hands and tools

Assemble mechanical components or machine parts.

#5189 · Core · 10% automatable

Shape replacement parts, using bench grinders.

physical manipulation — Precision grinding requires hands-on machine control

Grind parts to required dimensions.

#5190 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Repair holes in tire tubes, using scrapers and patches.

physical manipulation — Manual tire mounting and repair

Repair tires.

#5192 · Supplemental · 11% automatable

Paint bicycle frames, using spray guns or brushes.

physical manipulation — Manual spray/coating control requires dexterity and judgment

Paint surfaces or equipment. Apply paint to surfaces. Operate painting or coating equipment.

#5191 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Weld broken or cracked frames together, using oxyacetylene torches and welding rods.

physical manipulation — Welding is skilled hands-on metalwork

Weld metal components. Operate welding equipment.

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Community Sentiment

Do you agree?

Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?

Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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