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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers?
Task-level automation exposure for First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers: 22 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
48%
weighted task index
22 of 22 tasks scored
Median Salary
$79,860 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
617,500 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+4.1%
employment change
48,900 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$47,660 – $98,110
Highest medians
Alaska $98,110
Washington $94,420
Connecticut $94,050
California $93,660
New Jersey $92,680
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $47,660
Guam $48,760
Virgin Islands $58,660
Mississippi $70,900
West Virginia $71,360
State figures come from the 49-1011 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 48%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 5%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 37%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 7%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 17/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
22 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 34%
7 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 36%
9 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 30%
6 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#2929 · Core · 24% automatable
Inspect, test, and measure completed work, using devices such as hand tools or gauges to verify conformance to standards or repair requirements.
physical manipulation — Physical distance measurement in field
Inspect completed work to ensure proper functioning. Measure distances or dimensions.
#15263 · Core · 42% automatable
Inspect and monitor work areas, examine tools and equipment, and provide employee safety training to prevent, detect, and correct unsafe conditions or violations of procedures and safety rules.
visual inspection — AI reviews records; human observes physical procedures
Monitor work areas or procedures to ensure compliance with safety procedures. Train others in operational procedures.
#2920 · Core · 64% automatable
Interpret specifications, blueprints, or job orders to construct templates and lay out reference points for workers.
visual inspection — Diagram interpretation partial, human confirms installation
Interpret blueprints, specifications, or diagrams to inform installation, development or operation activities.
#2914 · Core · 30% automatable
Monitor employees' work levels and review work performance.
interpersonal — Employee supervision is accountability-bearing human work
Supervise employees.
#2925 · Core · 8% automatable
Perform skilled repair or maintenance operations, using equipment such as hand or power tools, hydraulic presses or shears, or welding equipment.
physical manipulation — Physical maintenance of machinery
Operate welding equipment. Maintain work equipment or machinery.
#2919 · Core · 70% automatable
Compute estimates and actual costs of factors such as materials, labor, or outside contractors.
data analysis — Labor/material cost estimation from rates
Estimate costs for labor or materials.
#15262 · Core · 70% automatable
Monitor tool and part inventories and the condition and maintenance of shops to ensure adequate working conditions.
data analysis — Materials inventory records and forecasting automatable
Maintain inventories of materials, equipment, or products.
#2918 · Core · 75% automatable
Requisition materials and supplies, such as tools, equipment, or replacement parts.
decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend
Order materials, supplies, or equipment.
#2923 · Core · 48% automatable
Confer with personnel, such as management, engineering, quality control, customer, or union workers' representatives, to coordinate work activities, resolve employee grievances, or identify and review resource needs.
interpersonal — Real-time coworker coordination is relational work
Confer with coworkers to coordinate work activities.
#2912 · Core · 65% automatable
Determine schedules, sequences, and assignments for work activities, based on work priority, quantity of equipment, and skill of personnel.
data analysis — AI coordinates repair schedules; human handles field issues
Schedule repair, installation or maintenance activities.
#2915 · Core · 30% automatable
Examine objects, systems, or facilities and analyze information to determine needed installations, services, or repairs.
visual inspection — System checks partly aided by telemetry, still human-verified
Inspect systems to determine if they are operating properly.
#2917 · Core · 30% automatable
Counsel employees about work-related issues and assist employees to correct job-skill deficiencies.
interpersonal — Employee supervision is accountability-bearing human work
Supervise employees.
#2924 · Core · 30% automatable
Recommend or initiate personnel actions, such as hires, promotions, transfers, discharges, or disciplinary measures.
interpersonal — Employee supervision is accountability-bearing human work
Supervise employees.
#2922 · Core · 51% automatable
Investigate accidents or injuries and prepare reports of findings.
text generation — Draft incident reports; human verifies facts and liability
Investigate industrial or transportation accidents. Prepare accident or incident reports.
#2921 · Core · 42% automatable
Conduct or arrange for worker training in safety, repair, or maintenance techniques, operational procedures, or equipment use.
interpersonal — Operational training requires live human delivery
Train others in operational procedures.
#2927 · Core · 68% automatable
Develop, implement, or evaluate maintenance policies and procedures.
decision support — Procedure drafting aided; context-specific validation human
Plan work procedures.
#2930 · Core · 55% automatable
Meet with vendors or suppliers to discuss products used in repair work.
interpersonal — AI can script; live explanation and trust are human
Explain use of products or services.
#2916 · Supplemental · 48% automatable
Participate in budget preparation and administration, coordinating purchasing and documentation and monitoring departmental expenditures.
interpersonal — Real-time coworker coordination is relational work
Confer with coworkers to coordinate work activities.
#15264 · Supplemental · 35% automatable
Review, evaluate, accept, and coordinate completion of work bid from contractors.
interpersonal — Directing organizational operations carries accountability
Direct organizational operations, projects, or services.
#2926 · Supplemental · 80% automatable
Compile operational or personnel records, such as time and production records, inventory data, repair or maintenance statistics, or test results.
text generation — Document routine operational activities from inputs
Document operational activities. Maintain repair or maintenance records.
#2931 · Supplemental · 50% automatable
Develop or implement electronic maintenance programs or computer information management systems.
physical manipulation — Program installation on equipment needs physical access
Install programs onto computer or computer-controlled equipment.
#2932 · Supplemental · 50% automatable
Design equipment configurations to meet personnel needs.
decision support — AI proposes configurations; engineer verifies physical constraints
Develop equipment or component configurations.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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