AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?

Task-level automation exposure for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers: 30 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

28% weighted task index

30 of 30 tasks scored

Median Salary

$61,010 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Very High

409,670 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+10.9% employment change

40,600 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$31,480 – $84,390

Highest medians

District of Columbia $84,390

Alaska $77,430

Illinois $77,410

Massachusetts $77,300

Connecticut $76,610

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $31,480

Guam $40,110

Virgin Islands $45,030

Arkansas $48,110

Alabama $48,370

State figures come from the 49-9021 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 28%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 61%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 10%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 7%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 44/100 Moderate

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

30 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 18%

5 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 11%

3 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 71%

22 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

New 08/2026 · Incumbent

Contact vendors to order and arrange delivery of parts for customers.

Constituent Tasks

#23554 · Core · 45% automatable

Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions.

interpersonal — Assessing customer problems needs live diagnostic dialogue

Confer with customers or users to assess problems.

#23552 · Core · 25% automatable

Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment.

physical manipulation — Electrical probing and meter work by hand

Test electrical circuits or components for proper functioning.

#23553 · Core · 12% automatable

Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring.

physical manipulation — HVAC service is hands-on diagnostic and repair

Service heating, ventilation or air-conditioning (HVAC) systems or components. Replace worn, damaged, or defective mechanical parts. Repair worn, damaged, or defective mechanical parts.

#23561 · Core · 10% automatable

Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools.

physical manipulation — Connecting electrical components is manual work

Connect electrical components or equipment.

#23575 · Core · 65% automatable

Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock.

data analysis — AI coordinates repair schedules; human handles field issues

Schedule repair, installation or maintenance activities.

#23574 · Core · 29% automatable

Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.

decision support — Ordering via systems automatable; human approves spend

Install home appliances. Travel to work sites to perform installation, repair or maintenance work. Order materials, supplies, or equipment.

#23556 · Core · 13% automatable

Install, connect, or adjust thermostats, humidistats, or timers.

physical manipulation — Hands-on equipment adjustment for performance

Adjust equipment to ensure optimal performance. Install heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment.

#23557 · Core · 65% automatable

Comply with all applicable standards, policies, or procedures, such as safety procedures or the maintenance of a clean work area.

decision support — AI assesses compliance against written standards

Determine operational compliance with regulations or standards.

#23580 · Core · 13% automatable

Repair or service heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to improve efficiency, such as by changing filters, cleaning ducts, and refilling non-toxic refrigerants.

physical manipulation — HVAC service is hands-on diagnostic and repair

Service heating, ventilation or air-conditioning (HVAC) systems or components. Repair worn, damaged, or defective mechanical parts.

#23581 · Core · 27% automatable

Test pipes, lines, components, and connections for leaks.

physical manipulation — Physical system testing with hands-on instrumentation

Test mechanical systems to ensure proper functioning.

#23560 · Core · 5% automatable

Braze or solder parts to repair defective joints and leaks.

physical manipulation — Hands-on brazing of metal parts in unstructured shop

Braze metal parts or components.

#23568 · Core · 55% automatable

Recommend, develop, or perform preventive or general maintenance procedures, such as cleaning, power-washing, or vacuuming equipment, oiling parts, or changing filters.

decision support — Advice good; hands-on equipment context needs human

Advise others on issues related to repairs, installation, or equipment design.

#23572 · Core · 80% automatable

Keep records of repairs and replacements made and causes of malfunctions.

text generation — Log maintenance and repair records from data

Maintain repair or maintenance records.

#23563 · Core · 80% automatable

Record and report time, materials, faults, deficiencies, or other unusual occurrences on work orders.

text generation — Document routine operational activities from inputs

Document operational activities.

#23565 · Core · 15% automatable

Adjust system controls to settings recommended by manufacturer to balance system.

physical manipulation — Hands-on equipment adjustment for performance

Adjust equipment to ensure optimal performance.

#23564 · Core · 10% automatable

Perform mechanical overhauls and refrigerant reclaiming.

physical manipulation — Manual repair of worn mechanical parts

Repair worn, damaged, or defective mechanical parts.

#23566 · Core · 5% automatable

Install expansion and control valves, using acetylene torches and wrenches.

physical manipulation — Replacing machine parts requires hands and tools

Install machine or equipment replacement parts.

#23562 · Core · 30% automatable

Inspect and test systems to verify system compliance with plans and specifications or to detect and locate malfunctions.

visual inspection — System checks partly aided by telemetry, still human-verified

Inspect systems to determine if they are operating properly.

#23555 · Core · 10% automatable

Connect heating or air conditioning equipment to fuel, water, or refrigerant source to form complete circuit.

physical manipulation — HVAC equipment installation is hands-on trade labor

Install heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment.

#23570 · Core · 10% automatable

Mount compressor, condenser, and other components in specified locations on frames, using hand tools and acetylene welding equipment.

physical manipulation — HVAC equipment installation is hands-on trade labor

Install heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment.

#23558 · Core · 64% automatable

Study blueprints, design specifications, or manufacturers' recommendations to ascertain the configuration of heating or cooling equipment components and to ensure the proper installation of components.

visual inspection — Diagram interpretation partial, human confirms installation

Interpret blueprints, specifications, or diagrams to inform installation, development or operation activities.

#23559 · Core · 10% automatable

Install auxiliary components to heating or cooling equipment, such as expansion or discharge valves, air ducts, pipes, blowers, dampers, flues, or stokers.

physical manipulation — HVAC equipment installation is hands-on trade labor

Install heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment.

#23579 · Core · 13% automatable

Install or repair self-contained ground source heat pumps or hybrid ground or air source heat pumps to minimize carbon-based energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions.

physical manipulation — HVAC service is hands-on diagnostic and repair

Install energy-efficient heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Service heating, ventilation or air-conditioning (HVAC) systems or components.

#23573 · Core · 13% automatable

Install or repair air purification systems, such as specialized filters or ultraviolet (UV) light purification systems.

physical manipulation — HVAC service is hands-on diagnostic and repair

Install energy-efficient heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Service heating, ventilation or air-conditioning (HVAC) systems or components.

#23576 · Core · 36% automatable

Supervise and instruct assistants.

interpersonal — Operational training requires live human delivery

Train others in operational procedures. Supervise employees.

#23577 · Core · 10% automatable

Lay out reference points for installation of structural and functional components, using measuring instruments.

physical manipulation — Laying out work physically per specifications

Lay out work according to specifications.

#23571 · Core · 17% automatable

Measure, cut, thread, or bend pipe or tubing, using pipe fitter's tools.

physical manipulation — Physical distance measurement in field

Measure distances or dimensions. Cut materials according to specifications or needs.

#23567 · Core · 10% automatable

Install dehumidifiers or related equipment for spaces that require cool, dry air to operate efficiently, such as computer rooms.

physical manipulation — On-site HVAC installation requires hands-on trade work

Install energy-efficient heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) equipment.

#23578 · Core · 10% automatable

Lift and align components into position, using hoist or block and tackle.

physical manipulation — Crane/hoist operation demands real-time physical control

Operate cranes, hoists, or other moving or lifting equipment.

#23569 · Core · 12% automatable

Cut or drill holes in floors, walls, or roof to install equipment, using power saws or drills.

physical manipulation — Drilling parts requires physical tool operation

Drill holes in parts, equipment, or materials.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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