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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials?
Task-level automation exposure for Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials: 16 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
39%
weighted task index
16 of 16 tasks scored
Median Salary
$40,710 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
15,780 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+5.2%
employment change
4,300 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 34 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$21,900 – $67,600
Highest medians
New Jersey $67,600
North Dakota $63,920
South Carolina $61,290
Wisconsin $57,000
Ohio $55,040
Lowest medians
Oklahoma $21,900
Kansas $25,780
North Carolina $26,540
Mississippi $27,060
Georgia $28,360
State figures come from the 27-2023 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 39%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 0%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 28%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 0%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 0/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
16 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 15%
3 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 26%
4 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 59%
9 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#3909 · Core · 25% automatable
Officiate at sporting events, games, or competitions, to maintain standards of play and to ensure that game rules are observed.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#23912 · Core · 22% automatable
Inspect game sites for compliance with regulations or safety requirements.
visual inspection — Hazard identification on site requires physical presence
Inspect work sites to identify potential environmental or safety hazards. Inspect facilities, equipment or supplies to ensure conformance to standards.
#3915 · Core · 25% automatable
Resolve claims of rule infractions or complaints by participants and assess any necessary penalties, according to regulations.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3911 · Core · 25% automatable
Signal participants or other officials to make them aware of infractions or to otherwise regulate play or competition.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3920 · Core · 40% automatable
Teach and explain the rules and regulations governing a specific sport.
interpersonal — Coaching needs live relationship and accountability
Coach others.
#3912 · Core · 52% automatable
Inspect sporting equipment or examine participants to ensure compliance with event and safety regulations.
decision support — AI assesses compliance against written standards
Monitor activities of individuals to ensure safety or compliance with rules. Determine operational compliance with regulations or standards.
#3918 · Core · 43% automatable
Report to regulating organizations regarding sporting activities, complaints made, and actions taken or needed, such as fines or other disciplinary actions.
decision support — Complaint triage aided; interviews and judgment human
Investigate work related complaints to determine corrective actions. Discuss performance, complaints, or violations with supervisors.
#3919 · Core · 25% automatable
Confer with other sporting officials, coaches, players, and facility managers to provide information, coordinate activities, and discuss problems.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3910 · Supplemental · 40% automatable
Judge performances in sporting competitions to award points, impose scoring penalties, and determine results.
visual inspection — Athletic skill assessment requires live observation
Evaluate skills of athletes or performers.
#3916 · Supplemental · 85% automatable
Verify scoring calculations before competition winners are announced.
data analysis — Data accuracy verification is rule-based and reliable
Verify accuracy of data.
#3914 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Start races and competitions.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3923 · Supplemental · 82% automatable
Compile scores and other athletic records.
text generation — Technical documentation compilation, human reviews accuracy
Compile technical information or documentation.
#3922 · Supplemental · 85% automatable
Verify credentials of participants in sporting events, and make other qualifying determinations, such as starting order or handicap number.
data analysis — Data accuracy verification is rule-based and reliable
Verify accuracy of data.
#3913 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Keep track of event times, including race times and elapsed time during game segments, starting or stopping play when necessary.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3917 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Direct participants to assigned areas, such as starting blocks or penalty areas.
interpersonal — Live sporting event coordination is on-site human work
Coordinate athletic or sporting events or activities.
#3921 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Research and study players and teams to anticipate issues that might arise in future engagements.
information retrieval — Records research aided; field investigation human
Observe individuals' activities to gather information or compile evidence. Investigate personal characteristics or activities of individuals.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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