AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs?

Task-level automation exposure for Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs: 26 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Automation Exposure

38% weighted task index

26 of 26 tasks scored

Median Salary

$37,290 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

248,530 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+7.1% employment change

35,500 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$21,890 – $50,310

Highest medians

Hawaii $50,310

District of Columbia $45,700

California $44,730

Washington $44,660

New York $44,160

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $21,890

Mississippi $26,900

Guam $26,940

West Virginia $27,950

Arkansas $29,740

State figures come from the 53-3053 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 38%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 34%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 20%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 11%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 50/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

26 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 31%

8 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 21%

5 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 49%

13 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#23756 · Core · 20% automatable

Test vehicle equipment, such as lights, brakes, horns, or windshield wipers, to ensure proper operation.

visual inspection — Vehicle inspection is physical on-site work

Inspect motor vehicles.

#23733 · Core · 20% automatable

Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.

visual inspection — Vehicle inspection is physical on-site work

Inspect motor vehicles.

#23737 · Core · 55% automatable

Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.

decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving

Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation.

#23739 · Core · 55% automatable

Follow relevant safety regulations and state laws governing vehicle operation, and ensure that passengers follow safety regulations.

decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving

Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation.

#23742 · Core · 10% automatable

Operate vehicles with specialized equipment, such as wheelchair lifts, to transport and secure passengers with special needs.

situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control

Drive passenger vehicles.

#23754 · Core · 65% automatable

Report any vehicle malfunctions or needed repairs.

text generation — Reporting malfunctions is structured information relay

Report vehicle or equipment malfunctions.

#23745 · Core · 8% automatable

Perform routine vehicle maintenance, such as regulating tire pressure and adding gasoline, oil, and water.

physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work

Maintain vehicles in good working condition.

#23746 · Core · 10% automatable

Pick up and drop off passengers at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.

situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control

Drive passenger vehicles.

#23738 · Core · 10% automatable

Drive shuttle busses, limousines, company cars, or privately owned vehicles to transport passengers.

situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control

Drive passenger vehicles.

#23748 · Core · 82% automatable

Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of passengers or trips, hours worked, mileage driven fuel consumed, or fares received.

text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info

Record operational details of travel.

#23741 · Core · 65% automatable

Notify dispatchers or company mechanics of vehicle problems.

text generation — Reporting malfunctions is structured information relay

Report vehicle or equipment malfunctions.

#23749 · Core · 5% automatable

Provide passengers with assistance entering and exiting vehicles, and help them with any luggage.

physical manipulation — Physical boarding assistance

Assist passengers during vehicle boarding.

#23735 · Core · 35% automatable

Communicate with dispatchers by radio, telephone, or computer to exchange information and receive requests for passenger service.

situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical

Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.

#23747 · Core · 15% automatable

Pick up or meet passengers according to requests, appointments, or schedules.

interpersonal — Physical presence greeting customers

Greet customers, patrons, or visitors.

#23732 · Core · 72% automatable

Arrange to pick up particular customers or groups on a regular schedule.

decision support — Algorithmic scheduling with human oversight of constraints

Schedule operational activities.

#23755 · Core · 55% automatable

Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.

interpersonal — Emergency notification needs live accountable delivery

Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.

#23736 · Core · 72% automatable

Complete accident reports when necessary.

text generation — Draft incident reports; human verifies facts and liability

Prepare accident or incident reports.

#23751 · Core · 67% automatable

Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.

information retrieval — Map route reading strong, real-world routing human

Read maps to determine routes. Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.

#23740 · Core · 70% automatable

Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.

information retrieval — AI supports study; certification requires human

Maintain professional knowledge or certifications.

#23753 · Core · 15% automatable

Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for passenger comfort.

interpersonal — In-person comfort and safety assurance

Assist customers to ensure comfort or safety.

#23752 · Core · 82% automatable

Record vehicle routes.

text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info

Record operational details of travel.

#23757 · Core · 5% automatable

Vacuum and clean interiors, and wash and polish exteriors of automobiles.

physical manipulation — Hands-on washing of vehicle surfaces and parts

Clean vehicles or vehicle components.

#23750 · Core · 55% automatable

Provide passengers with information or advice about the local area, points of interest, hotels, or restaurants.

information retrieval — Transport info lookup automatable; live assistance human

Provide transportation information to passengers or customers.

#23734 · Supplemental · 20% automatable

Collect fares or vouchers from passengers, and make change or issue receipts as necessary.

physical manipulation — Collecting fares physically from customers

Collect fares or payment from customers.

#23744 · Supplemental · 7% automatable

Perform minor vehicle repairs, such as cleaning spark plugs, or take vehicles to mechanics for servicing.

physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work

Clean vehicles or vehicle components. Maintain vehicles in good working condition.

#23743 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Perform errands for customers or employers, such as delivering or picking up mail and packages.

physical manipulation — Manual moving of materials and supplies

Move materials, equipment, or supplies.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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