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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers?
Task-level automation exposure for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers: 29 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
32%
weighted task index
29 of 29 tasks scored
Median Salary
$58,640 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
2,062,040 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+3.8%
employment change
214,500 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$25,510 – $70,100
Highest medians
Alaska $70,100
Washington $64,760
District of Columbia $64,170
New Jersey $63,570
Massachusetts $63,030
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $25,510
Guam $38,760
Virgin Islands $43,270
Louisiana $49,320
West Virginia $49,480
State figures come from the 53-3032 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 32%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 49%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 14%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 4%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 56/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
29 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 27%
7 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 7%
2 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 67%
20 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#20693 · Core · 80% automatable
Check all load-related documentation for completeness and accuracy.
text generation — Policy compliance document review, human owns final call
Review documents or materials for compliance with policies or regulations.
#20692 · Core · 22% automatable
Inspect loads to ensure that cargo is secure.
visual inspection — Cargo securing inspection is hands-on physical verification
Inspect cargo to ensure it is properly loaded or secured.
#10636 · Core · 20% automatable
Check vehicles to ensure that mechanical, safety, and emergency equipment is in good working order.
visual inspection — Vehicle inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect motor vehicles.
#10651 · Core · 5% automatable
Crank trailer landing gear up or down to safely secure vehicles.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#10638 · Core · 20% automatable
Obtain receipts or signatures for delivered goods and collect payment for services when required.
physical manipulation — Collecting fares physically from customers
Collect fares or payment from customers.
#10637 · Core · 81% automatable
Maintain logs of working hours or of vehicle service or repair status, following applicable state and federal regulations.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Record operational or production data. Record service or repair activities.
#10643 · Core · 80% automatable
Read bills of lading to determine assignment details.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures.
#10644 · Core · 60% automatable
Report vehicle defects, accidents, traffic violations, or damage to the vehicles.
text generation — Reporting malfunctions is structured information relay
Report vehicle or equipment malfunctions. Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.
#10653 · Core · 8% automatable
Perform basic vehicle maintenance tasks, such as adding oil, fuel, or radiator fluid, performing minor repairs, or washing trucks.
physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work
Maintain vehicles in good working condition.
#10646 · Core · 10% automatable
Couple or uncouple trailers by changing trailer jack positions, connecting or disconnecting air or electrical lines, or manipulating fifth-wheel locks.
physical manipulation — Connecting cables is hands-on installation
Connect cables or electrical lines.
#10640 · Core · 5% automatable
Maneuver trucks into loading or unloading positions, following signals from loading crew and checking that vehicle and loading equipment are properly positioned.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#10647 · Core · 80% automatable
Collect delivery instructions from appropriate sources, verifying instructions and routes.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures. Verify information or specifications.
#10641 · Core · 5% automatable
Drive trucks with capacities greater than 13 tons, including tractor-trailer combinations, to transport and deliver products, livestock, or other materials.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#10645 · Core · 72% automatable
Read and interpret maps to determine vehicle routes.
information retrieval — Map route reading strong, real-world routing human
Read maps to determine routes.
#10650 · Core · 20% automatable
Check conditions of trailers after contents have been unloaded to ensure that there has been no damage.
visual inspection — Cargo area cleanliness check is physical
Inspect cargo areas for cleanliness or condition.
#20695 · Core · 30% automatable
Operate equipment, such as truck cab computers, CB radios, phones, or global positioning systems (GPS) equipment to exchange necessary information with bases, supervisors, or other drivers.
physical manipulation — Operating comms hardware needs hands-on setup and tuning
Operate communications equipment or systems.
#20694 · Core · 5% automatable
Drive trucks to weigh stations before and after loading and along routes in compliance with state regulations.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#20696 · Core · 4% automatable
Load or unload trucks or help others with loading or unloading, using special loading-related equipment or other equipment as necessary.
physical manipulation — Physical lifting and loading of shipments
Load shipments, belongings, or materials.
#19923 · Core · 55% automatable
Plan or adjust routes based on changing conditions, using computer equipment, global positioning systems (GPS) equipment, or other navigation devices, to minimize fuel consumption and carbon emissions.
data analysis — Route optimization computational; human confirms
Choose optimal transportation routes or speeds. Adjust routes or speeds as necessary.
#10662 · Core · 8% automatable
Perform emergency roadside repairs, such as changing tires or installing light bulbs, tire chains, or spark plugs.
physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work
Maintain vehicles in good working condition.
#10656 · Core · 4% automatable
Remove debris from loaded trailers.
physical manipulation — Manual removal of debris and damaged materials
Remove debris or damaged materials.
#10642 · Supplemental · 4% automatable
Secure cargo for transport, using ropes, blocks, chain, binders, or covers.
physical manipulation — Physical securing of cargo with straps
Secure cargo.
#10635 · Supplemental · 55% automatable
Follow appropriate safety procedures for transporting dangerous goods.
decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving
Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation.
#10655 · Supplemental · 68% automatable
Inventory and inspect goods to be moved to determine quantities and conditions.
decision support — Acquisition workflow aided; human commits resources
Acquire supplies or equipment.
#10658 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Follow special cargo-related procedures, such as checking refrigeration systems for frozen foods or providing food or water for livestock.
visual inspection — Monitoring cargo conditions is physical/sensor-based
Monitor cargo area conditions.
#10660 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Install or remove special equipment, such as tire chains, grader blades, plow blades, or sanders.
physical manipulation — Installing parts requires hands-on mechanical work
Install parts, assemblies, or attachments in transportation or material handling equipment.
#20697 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Wrap and secure goods using pads, packing paper, containers, or straps.
physical manipulation — Hands-on packaging of products
Secure cargo. Package materials or products.
#19922 · Supplemental · 20% automatable
Operate idle reduction systems or auxiliary power systems to generate power from alternative sources, such as fuel cells, to reduce idling time, to heat or cool truck cabins, or to provide power for other equipment.
physical manipulation — Physical control of green energy production equipment
Operate green energy production equipment.
#10659 · Supplemental · 22% automatable
Give directions to laborers who are packing goods and moving them onto trailers.
physical manipulation — Material handling direction is on-floor supervision
Direct material handling or moving activities.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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