AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Sheet Metal Workers?

Task-level automation exposure for Sheet Metal Workers: 19 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

19% weighted task index

19 of 19 tasks scored

Median Salary

$61,800 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

119,770 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+2.5% employment change

9,800 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 52 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$28,340 – $98,550

Highest medians

Washington $98,550

Hawaii $96,350

Alaska $94,600

New Jersey $92,840

Illinois $86,630

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $28,340

Guam $37,770

Arkansas $45,820

Idaho $46,350

Nevada $46,730

State figures come from the 47-2211 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 19%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 68%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 15%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 0%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 55/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

19 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 6%

1 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 10%

2 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 84%

16 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#5177 · Core · 10% automatable

Maintain equipment, making repairs or modifications when necessary.

physical manipulation — Physical maintenance of construction tools

Maintain construction tools or equipment.

#19858 · Core · 10% automatable

Fabricate ducts for high efficiency heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to maximize efficiency of systems.

physical manipulation — Part fabrication requires physical machining and handling

Fabricate parts or components.

#5173 · Core · 8% automatable

Fasten seams or joints together with welds, bolts, cement, rivets, solder, caulks, metal drive clips, or bonds to assemble components into products or to repair sheet metal items.

physical manipulation — Welding is skilled hands-on metalwork

Assemble products or production equipment. Weld metal components.

#5179 · Core · 7% automatable

Transport prefabricated parts to construction sites for assembly and installation.

physical manipulation — Manual moving of construction materials on site

Move construction or extraction materials to locations where they are needed.

#5170 · Core · 4% automatable

Install assemblies, such as flashing, pipes, tubes, heating and air conditioning ducts, furnace casings, rain gutters, or downspouts in supportive frameworks.

physical manipulation — Installing fixtures requires manual dexterity

Install building fixtures. Install plumbing or piping.

#18782 · Core · 24% automatable

Hire, train, or supervise new employees or apprentices.

physical manipulation — Construction training requires hands-on demonstration and safety

Train construction or extraction personnel. Direct construction or extraction personnel.

#20639 · Core · 16% automatable

Lay out, measure, and mark dimensions and reference lines on material, such as roofing panels, using calculators, scribes, dividers, squares, or rulers.

physical manipulation — Physical measurement for assembly fitting

Measure materials or objects for installation or assembly. Mark reference points on construction materials.

#5174 · Core · 10% automatable

Fabricate or alter parts at construction sites, using shears, hammers, punches, or drills.

physical manipulation — Part fabrication requires physical machining and handling

Fabricate parts or components.

#20638 · Core · 70% automatable

Determine project requirements, such as scope, assembly sequences, or required methods or materials, using blueprints, drawings, or written or verbal instructions.

visual inspection — Specs reading aided, human validates requirements

Review blueprints or specifications to determine work requirements.

#20641 · Core · 5% automatable

Maneuver completed roofing units into position for installation.

physical manipulation — Positioning structural components is physical labor

Position structural components.

#5171 · Core · 55% automatable

Select gauges or types of sheet metal or nonmetallic material, according to product specifications.

decision support — Construction material selection needs code and site judgment

Select construction materials.

#5178 · Core · 10% automatable

Shape metal material over anvils, blocks, or other forms, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Part fabrication requires physical machining and handling

Fabricate parts or components.

#5175 · Core · 8% automatable

Trim, file, grind, deburr, buff, or smooth surfaces, seams, or joints of assembled parts, using hand tools or portable power tools.

physical manipulation — Abrasive hand work on physical surfaces

Smooth surfaces with abrasive materials or tools.

#20642 · Supplemental · 20% automatable

Inspect individual parts, assemblies, or installations, using measuring instruments, such as calipers, scales, or micrometers.

visual inspection — Installation inspection requires on-site physical check

Inspect completed work to ensure proper installation.

#5169 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Convert blueprints into shop drawings to be followed in the construction or assembly of sheet metal products.

text generation — Installation diagrams drafted; field accuracy human-owned

Create construction or installation diagrams.

#19862 · Supplemental · 30% automatable

Verify that heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed, installed, and calibrated in accordance with green certification standards, such as those of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).

visual inspection — On-site construction compliance inspection is physical

Evaluate construction projects to determine compliance with external standards or regulations.

#19860 · Supplemental · 18% automatable

Perform building commissioning activities by completing mechanical inspections of a building's water, lighting, or heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems.

visual inspection — Direct physical inspection of industrial equipment

Inspect industrial or commercial equipment to ensure proper operation.

#20644 · Supplemental · 6% automatable

Fasten roof panel edges or machine-made moldings to structures by nailing or welding.

physical manipulation — Welding is skilled hands-on metalwork

Install roofing materials. Weld metal components.

#5176 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Finish parts, using hacksaws or hand, rotary, or squaring shears.

physical manipulation — Part fabrication requires physical machining and handling

Fabricate parts or components.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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