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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Carpenters?
Task-level automation exposure for Carpenters: 29 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
21%
weighted task index
29 of 29 tasks scored
Median Salary
$60,580 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
670,090 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+3.9%
employment change
62,800 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$30,530 – $85,280
Highest medians
Hawaii $85,280
Illinois $79,000
California $75,920
Massachusetts $75,200
Washington $74,190
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $30,530
Guam $36,910
Oklahoma $46,910
Arkansas $47,760
South Dakota $48,140
State figures come from the 47-2031 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 21%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 71%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 11%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 8%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 50/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
29 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 14%
4 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 8%
2 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 78%
23 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Emerging & rewritten tasks
Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.
- New 05/2025 · AI/SME
Use drones for site surveying and to inspect hard-to-reach areas of a structure.
Constituent Tasks
#23432 · Core · 16% automatable
Measure and mark cutting lines on materials, using a ruler, pencil, chalk, and marking gauge.
physical manipulation — Physical measurement for assembly fitting
Measure materials or objects for installation or assembly. Mark reference points on construction materials.
#23430 · Core · 10% automatable
Follow established safety rules and regulations and maintain a safe and clean environment.
physical manipulation — Work site cleaning is physical labor
Clean work sites.
#23433 · Core · 6% automatable
Shape or cut materials to specified measurements, using hand tools, machines, or power saws.
physical manipulation — Wood cutting requires manual tool operation
Cut wood components for installation.
#23436 · Core · 55% automatable
Select and order lumber or other required materials.
decision support — Construction material selection needs code and site judgment
Select construction materials. Order construction or extraction materials or equipment.
#23434 · Core · 3% automatable
Install structures or fixtures, such as windows, frames, floorings, trim, or hardware, using carpenters' hand or power tools.
physical manipulation — Installing fixtures requires manual dexterity
Install building fixtures. Install doors or windows. Install wooden structural components.
#23435 · Core · 18% automatable
Verify trueness of structure, using plumb bob and level.
physical manipulation — Alignment verification needs physical measurement tools
Verify alignment of structures or equipment.
#23437 · Core · 35% automatable
Arrange for subcontractors to deal with special areas, such as heating or electrical wiring work.
decision support — AI aids scheduling; field coordination and conflict resolution human
Coordinate construction project activities.
#23439 · Core · 3% automatable
Build or repair cabinets, doors, frameworks, floors, or other wooden fixtures used in buildings, using woodworking machines, carpenter's hand tools, or power tools.
physical manipulation — Wood structural installation is manual carpentry
Install wooden structural components.
#23446 · Core · 5% automatable
Remove damaged or defective parts or sections of structures and repair or replace, using hand tools.
physical manipulation — Hands-on removal of worn materials
Remove worn, damaged or outdated materials from work areas.
#23447 · Core · 4% automatable
Install rough door and window frames, subflooring, fixtures, or temporary supports in structures undergoing construction or repair.
physical manipulation — Installing safety equipment requires hands-on work
Install safety or support equipment. Install building fixtures. Install doors or windows.
#23440 · Core · 10% automatable
Erect scaffolding or ladders for assembling structures above ground level.
physical manipulation — Erecting temporary structures requires physical assembly
Assemble temporary equipment or structures.
#23445 · Core · 80% automatable
Maintain job records and schedule work crew.
data analysis — Record operational or environmental data into logs
Record operational or environmental data.
#23449 · Core · 12% automatable
Examine structural timbers and supports to detect decay, and replace timbers as required, using hand tools, nuts, and bolts.
visual inspection — On-site physical condition assessment is human work
Inspect work sites to determine condition or necessary repairs. Install wooden structural components.
#23452 · Core · 5% automatable
Fill cracks or other defects in plaster or plasterboard and sand patch, using patching plaster, trowel, and sanding tool.
physical manipulation — Applying filler to surfaces is hands-on
Apply material to fill gaps in surfaces.
#23458 · Core · 11% automatable
Dig or direct digging of post holes and set poles to support structures.
interpersonal — Directing crews in the field is human leadership work
Dig holes or trenches. Position safety or support equipment. Direct construction or extraction personnel.
#23448 · Core · 4% automatable
Finish surfaces of woodwork or wallboard in houses or buildings, using paint, hand tools, or paneling.
physical manipulation — Hands-on textured finish application
Apply decorative or textured finishes or coverings.
#23451 · Core · 3% automatable
Cover subfloors with building paper to keep out moisture and lay hardwood, parquet, or wood-strip-block floors by nailing floors to subfloor or cementing them to mastic or asphalt base.
physical manipulation — Carpet installation needs precise manual fitting
Install carpet or flooring.
#23442 · Core · 20% automatable
Inspect ceiling or floor tile, wall coverings, siding, glass, or woodwork to detect broken or damaged structures.
visual inspection — On-site physical condition assessment is human work
Inspect work sites to determine condition or necessary repairs.
#23454 · Core · 62% automatable
Prepare cost estimates for clients or employers.
data analysis — Construction cost estimation needs site judgment
Estimate construction project costs.
#23438 · Core · 80% automatable
Maintain records, document actions, and present written progress reports.
text generation — Generate operational reports from structured data
Prepare operational reports.
#23444 · Core · 12% automatable
Bore boltholes in timber, masonry or concrete walls, using power drill.
physical manipulation — Drilling construction materials is hands-on tool work
Drill holes in construction materials.
#23431 · Core · 70% automatable
Study specifications in blueprints, sketches, or building plans to prepare project layout and determine dimensions and materials required.
visual inspection — Specs reading aided, human validates requirements
Review blueprints or specifications to determine work requirements.
#23443 · Core · 10% automatable
Assemble and fasten materials to make frameworks or props, using hand tools and wood screws, nails, dowel pins, or glue.
physical manipulation — Erecting temporary structures requires physical assembly
Assemble temporary equipment or structures.
#23453 · Core · 11% automatable
Perform minor plumbing, welding, or concrete mixing work.
physical manipulation — Physical handling of substances in workspace
Mix substances or compounds needed for work activities. Weld metal components.
#23441 · Core · 8% automatable
Anchor and brace forms and other structures in place, using nails, bolts, anchor rods, steel cables, planks, wedges, and timbers.
physical manipulation — Manual placement and alignment of forms on site
Position construction forms or molds.
#23457 · Supplemental · 8% automatable
Work with or remove hazardous material.
physical manipulation — Hazardous waste handling, hands-on
Prepare hazardous waste for processing or disposal.
#23456 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Build sleds from logs and timbers for use in hauling camp buildings and machinery through wooded areas.
physical manipulation — Physical assembly of products by hand
Assemble products or production equipment.
#23455 · Supplemental · 8% automatable
Construct forms or chutes for pouring concrete.
physical manipulation — Erecting temporary structures requires physical assembly
Assemble temporary equipment or structures. Build construction forms or molds.
#23450 · Supplemental · 3% automatable
Apply shock-absorbing, sound-deadening, or decorative paneling to ceilings or walls.
physical manipulation — Trim and paneling require precise manual fitting
Install trim or paneling.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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