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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors?
Task-level automation exposure for Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors: 14 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
26%
weighted task index
14 of 14 tasks scored
Median Salary
$49,690 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
High
147,240 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+2.1%
employment change
15,500 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 53 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$21,840 – $75,050
Highest medians
Illinois $75,050
Washington $74,620
New York $64,950
California $64,890
Oregon $63,210
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $21,840
Guam $32,520
South Dakota $32,950
South Carolina $34,880
Arkansas $35,640
State figures come from the 53-7081 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 26%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 60%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 4%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 8%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 29/100
Moderate
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
14 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 25%
4 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 7%
1 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 68%
9 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#7170 · Core · 20% automatable
Inspect trucks prior to beginning routes to ensure safe operating condition.
visual inspection — Vehicle inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect motor vehicles.
#7174 · Core · 5% automatable
Drive trucks, following established routes, through residential streets or alleys or through business or industrial areas.
physical manipulation — Hands-on vehicle and equipment operation
Operate vehicles or material-moving equipment.
#7171 · Core · 8% automatable
Refuel trucks or add other fluids, such as oil or brake fluid.
physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work
Maintain vehicles in good working condition.
#20313 · Core · 5% automatable
Dump refuse or recyclable materials at disposal sites.
physical manipulation — Physical disposal of trash and waste
Dispose of trash or waste materials.
#7172 · Core · 72% automatable
Fill out defective equipment reports.
text generation — Draft incident reports; human verifies facts and liability
Prepare accident or incident reports.
#7176 · Core · 10% automatable
Operate automated or semi-automated hoisting devices that raise refuse bins and dump contents into openings in truck bodies.
physical manipulation — Crane/hoist operation demands real-time physical control
Operate cranes, hoists, or other moving or lifting equipment.
#7177 · Core · 3% automatable
Dismount garbage trucks to collect garbage and remount trucks to ride to the next collection point.
situated mobility — Climbing ladders requires physical balance
Climb ladders or vehicles to perform duties.
#7175 · Core · 18% automatable
Operate equipment that compresses collected refuse.
physical manipulation — Physical operation of packing/material processing machinery
Operate packing or other material processing equipment.
#7178 · Core · 60% automatable
Communicate with dispatchers concerning delays, unsafe sites, accidents, equipment breakdowns, or other maintenance problems.
text generation — Reporting malfunctions is structured information relay
Report vehicle or equipment malfunctions. Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.
#7179 · Core · 45% automatable
Check road or weather conditions to determine how routes will be affected.
situated mobility — Work conditions require physical site assessment
Gather information about work conditions or locations.
#7181 · Core · 5% automatable
Clean trucks or compactor bodies after routes have been completed.
physical manipulation — Hands-on washing of vehicle surfaces and parts
Clean vehicles or vehicle components.
#7180 · Supplemental · 62% automatable
Tag garbage or recycling containers to inform customers of problems, such as excess garbage or inclusion of items that are not permitted.
information retrieval — AI explains policies; human handles live questions
Explain regulations, policies, or procedures.
#19932 · Supplemental · 4% automatable
Make special pickups of recyclable materials, such as food scraps, used oil, discarded computers, or other electronic items.
physical manipulation — Physical lifting and loading of shipments
Load shipments, belongings, or materials.
#7183 · Supplemental · 72% automatable
Organize schedules for refuse collection.
decision support — Algorithmic scheduling with human oversight of constraints
Schedule operational activities.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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