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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters?
Task-level automation exposure for Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters: 20 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
48%
weighted task index
20 of 20 tasks scored
Median Salary
$78,000 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Medium
46,440 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+0.9%
employment change
3,000 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 33 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$52,380 – $102,260
Highest medians
Oklahoma $102,260
Pennsylvania $83,610
Maryland $83,390
Indiana $81,260
Delaware $80,410
Lowest medians
Kentucky $52,380
West Virginia $55,180
North Carolina $58,930
Wisconsin $59,690
Ohio $61,390
State figures come from the 53-4031 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 48%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 6%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 32%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 17%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 88/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
20 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 45%
9 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 16%
3 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 39%
8 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#10702 · Core · 55% automatable
Observe yard traffic to determine tracks available to accommodate inbound and outbound traffic.
information retrieval — GPS/telematics tracking is digital; exceptions need human handling
Monitor vehicle movement or location.
#10697 · Core · 62% automatable
Receive instructions from dispatchers regarding trains' routes, timetables, and cargoes.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#10692 · Core · 25% automatable
Direct and instruct workers engaged in yard activities, such as switching tracks, coupling and uncoupling cars, and routing inbound and outbound traffic.
situated mobility — Transport direction needs real-time operational control
Direct passenger or freight transport activities.
#10690 · Core · 5% automatable
Signal engineers to begin train runs, stop trains, or change speed, using telecommunications equipment or hand signals.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10696 · Core · 25% automatable
Direct engineers to move cars to fit planned train configurations, combining or separating cars to make up or break up trains.
situated mobility — Transport direction needs real-time operational control
Direct passenger or freight transport activities.
#10704 · Core · 80% automatable
Confirm routes and destination information for freight cars.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures.
#10700 · Core · 65% automatable
Arrange for the removal of defective cars from trains at stations or stops.
data analysis — AI schedules maintenance; human coordinates execution
Arrange maintenance activities.
#10698 · Core · 80% automatable
Review schedules, switching orders, way bills, and shipping records to obtain cargo loading and unloading information and to plan work.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures.
#10691 · Core · 62% automatable
Receive information regarding train or rail problems from dispatchers or from electronic monitoring devices.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#10694 · Core · 10% automatable
Operate controls to activate track switches and traffic signals.
physical manipulation — Physical traffic control equipment operation
Control equipment that regulates vehicle traffic.
#10693 · Core · 82% automatable
Keep records of the contents and destination of each train car, and make sure that cars are added or removed at proper points on routes.
text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info
Record operational details of travel.
#10699 · Core · 35% automatable
Confer with engineers regarding train routes, timetables, and cargoes, and to discuss alternative routes when there are rail defects or obstructions.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10708 · Supplemental · 49% automatable
Inspect freight cars for compliance with sealing procedures, and record car numbers and seal numbers.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment. Record operational or production data.
#10705 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Supervise and coordinate crew activities to transport freight and passengers and to provide boarding, porter, maid, and meal services to passengers.
situated mobility — Transport direction needs real-time operational control
Direct passenger or freight transport activities.
#10706 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Supervise workers in the inspection and maintenance of mechanical equipment to ensure efficient and safe train operation.
physical manipulation — Directing repair activities requires hands-on site oversight
Direct maintenance or repair activities.
#10701 · Supplemental · 15% automatable
Inspect each car periodically during runs.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#10695 · Supplemental · 25% automatable
Instruct workers to set warning signals in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops.
interpersonal — Emergency direction is live, high-stakes human command
Direct emergency management activities.
#10710 · Supplemental · 80% automatable
Verify accuracy of timekeeping instruments with engineers to ensure trains depart on time.
information retrieval — Spec verification against references, human confirms edge cases
Verify information or specifications.
#10703 · Supplemental · 72% automatable
Document and prepare reports of accidents, unscheduled stops, or delays.
text generation — Draft incident reports; human verifies facts and liability
Prepare accident or incident reports.
#10707 · Supplemental · 82% automatable
Record departure and arrival times, messages, tickets and revenue collected, and passenger accommodations and destinations.
text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info
Record operational details of travel.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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