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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers?
Task-level automation exposure for Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers: 25 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
22%
weighted task index
25 of 25 tasks scored
Median Salary
$68,840 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
12,400 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+0.8%
employment change
900 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 24 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$45,490 – $85,140
Highest medians
Washington $85,140
New York $83,530
Iowa $80,910
Maryland $79,180
Illinois $76,290
Lowest medians
Wyoming $45,490
West Virginia $46,900
Louisiana $54,260
North Carolina $54,810
Pennsylvania $55,470
State figures come from the 53-4022 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 22%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 34%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 5%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 4%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 58/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
25 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 9%
2 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 13%
3 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 78%
20 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#23775 · Core · 5% automatable
Signal locomotive engineers to start or stop trains when coupling or uncoupling cars, using hand signals, lanterns, or radio communication.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#23774 · Core · 30% automatable
Observe train signals along routes and verify their meanings for engineers.
visual inspection — Traffic signal monitoring is live physical observation
Monitor traffic signals.
#23779 · Core · 15% automatable
Inspect couplings, air hoses, journal boxes, and handbrakes to ensure that they are securely fastened and functioning properly.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#23782 · Core · 5% automatable
Raise levers to couple and uncouple cars for makeup and breakup of trains.
physical manipulation — Installing parts requires hands-on mechanical work
Install parts, assemblies, or attachments in transportation or material handling equipment.
#23776 · Core · 10% automatable
Pull or push track switches to reroute cars.
physical manipulation — Physical traffic control equipment operation
Control equipment that regulates vehicle traffic.
#23777 · Core · 5% automatable
Observe signals from other crew members so that work activities can be coordinated.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#23801 · Core · 27% automatable
Conduct brake tests to determine the condition of brakes on trains.
physical manipulation — Physical system testing with hands-on instrumentation
Test mechanical systems to ensure proper functioning.
#23778 · Core · 40% automatable
Monitor trains as they go around curves to detect dragging equipment and smoking journal boxes.
visual inspection — Detecting subtle equipment problems needs on-site sensory judgment
Observe equipment in operation to detect potential problems.
#23784 · Core · 62% automatable
Receive oral or written instructions from yardmasters or yard conductors indicating track assignments and cars to be switched.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#23790 · Core · 40% automatable
Inspect tracks, cars, and engines for defects and to determine service needs, sending engines and cars for repairs as necessary.
data analysis — AI schedules maintenance; human coordinates execution
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment. Arrange maintenance activities.
#23780 · Core · 30% automatable
Observe tracks from left sides of locomotives to detect obstructions on tracks.
situated mobility — Hazard detection in surroundings needs embodied sensing
Monitor surroundings to detect potential hazards.
#23786 · Core · 5% automatable
Signal other workers to set brakes and to throw track switches when switching cars from trains to way stations.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#23793 · Core · 10% automatable
Connect air hoses to cars, using wrenches.
physical manipulation — Connecting hoses requires physical fitting
Connect hoses to equipment or machinery.
#23798 · Core · 81% automatable
Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Record operational or production data. Record service or repair activities.
#23792 · Core · 8% automatable
Make minor repairs to couplings, air hoses, and journal boxes, using hand tools.
physical manipulation — Physical rail equipment maintenance
Maintain locomotives or other rail equipment in good working condition.
#23785 · Supplemental · 15% automatable
Inspect locomotives to detect damaged or worn parts.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#23794 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Operate and drive locomotives, diesel switch engines, dinkey engines, flatcars, and railcars in train yards and at industrial sites.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#23788 · Supplemental · 28% automatable
Monitor oil, temperature, and pressure gauges on dashboards to determine if engines are operating safely and efficiently.
visual inspection — Gauge reading requires physical presence
Monitor engine operation or functioning. Monitor equipment gauges or displays to ensure proper operation.
#23787 · Supplemental · 55% automatable
Check to see that trains are equipped with supplies such as fuel, water, and sand.
information retrieval — Digital tracking automatable; physical stock checks need humans
Monitor availability of equipment or supplies.
#23783 · Supplemental · 3% automatable
Climb ladders to tops of cars to set brakes.
situated mobility — Climbing ladders requires physical balance
Climb ladders or vehicles to perform duties.
#23789 · Supplemental · 5% automatable
Set flares, flags, lanterns, or torpedoes in front and at rear of trains during emergency stops to warn oncoming trains.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#23795 · Supplemental · 8% automatable
Refuel and lubricate engines.
physical manipulation — Physical rail equipment maintenance
Maintain locomotives or other rail equipment in good working condition.
#23791 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Start diesel engines to warm engines before runs.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#23781 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Operate locomotives in emergency situations.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#23796 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Ride atop cars that have been shunted, and turn handwheels to control speeds or stop cars at specified positions.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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