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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers?
Task-level automation exposure for Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers: 23 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
24%
weighted task index
23 of 23 tasks scored
Median Salary
$60,600 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
3,920 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+0.8%
employment change
300 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 17 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$38,980 – $91,380
Highest medians
West Virginia $91,380
Florida $80,360
New Jersey $71,030
California $67,160
Pennsylvania $65,380
Lowest medians
Arkansas $38,980
Alabama $48,900
Nevada $48,970
Texas $53,130
Tennessee $54,060
State figures come from the 53-4013 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 24%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 44%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 0%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 3%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 79/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
23 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%
3 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 14%
3 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 73%
17 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#10667 · Core · 30% automatable
Observe and respond to wayside and cab signals, including color light signals, position signals, torpedoes, flags, and hot box detectors.
visual inspection — Traffic signal monitoring is live physical observation
Monitor traffic signals.
#10669 · Core · 15% automatable
Inspect engines before and after use to ensure proper operation.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#10670 · Core · 10% automatable
Apply and release hand brakes.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#10666 · Core · 5% automatable
Signal crew members for movement of engines or trains, using lanterns, hand signals, radios, or telephones.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10665 · Core · 35% automatable
Confer with conductors and other workers via radiotelephones or computers to exchange switching information.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10675 · Core · 15% automatable
Inspect track for defects such as broken rails and switch malfunctions.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#10673 · Core · 22% automatable
Observe water levels and oil, air, and steam pressure gauges to ensure proper operation of equipment.
physical manipulation — Hands-on depth/level measurement in field
Measure the level or depth of water or other liquids.
#10679 · Core · 10% automatable
Couple and uncouple air hoses and electrical connections between cars.
physical manipulation — Connecting hoses requires physical fitting
Connect hoses to equipment or machinery. Connect cables or electrical lines.
#10668 · Core · 10% automatable
Drive engines within railroad yards or other establishments to couple, uncouple, or switch railroad cars.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#10672 · Core · 15% automatable
Inspect the condition of stationary trains, rolling stock, and equipment.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#10671 · Core · 71% automatable
Read switching instructions and daily car schedules to determine work to be performed, or receive orders from yard conductors.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures. Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#10678 · Core · 62% automatable
Receive, relay, and act upon instructions and inquiries from train operations and customer service center personnel.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#10674 · Core · 55% automatable
Spot cars for loading and unloading at customer locations.
information retrieval — GPS/telematics tracking is digital; exceptions need human handling
Monitor vehicle movement or location.
#10677 · Core · 10% automatable
Operate track switches, derails, automatic switches, and retarders to change routing of train or cars.
physical manipulation — Physical traffic control equipment operation
Control equipment that regulates vehicle traffic.
#10680 · Core · 35% automatable
Report arrival and departure times, train delays, work order completion, and time on duty.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10685 · Core · 8% automatable
Perform routine repair and maintenance duties.
physical manipulation — Physical rail equipment maintenance
Maintain locomotives or other rail equipment in good working condition.
#10683 · Core · 10% automatable
Drive locomotives to and from various stations in roundhouses to have locomotives cleaned, serviced, repaired, or supplied.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#10681 · Core · 8% automatable
Pull knuckles to open them for coupling.
physical manipulation — Positioning material handling equipment is physical
Position material handling equipment.
#10682 · Core · 8% automatable
Provide assistance in aligning drawbars, using available equipment to lift, pull, or push on the drawbars.
physical manipulation — Positioning material handling equipment is physical
Position material handling equipment.
#10676 · Supplemental · 3% automatable
Ride on moving cars by holding onto grab irons and standing on ladder steps.
situated mobility — Climbing ladders requires physical balance
Climb ladders or vehicles to perform duties.
#10684 · Supplemental · 81% automatable
Record numbers of cars available, numbers of cars sent to repair stations, and types of service needed.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Record operational or production data. Record service or repair activities.
#10687 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Operate flatcars equipped with derricks or railcars to transport personnel or equipment.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#10688 · Supplemental · 8% automatable
Provide assistance in the installation or repair of rails and ties.
physical manipulation — Physical rail equipment maintenance
Maintain locomotives or other rail equipment in good working condition.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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