Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators?

Task-level automation exposure for Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators: 20 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

10% weighted task index

20 of 20 tasks scored

Median Salary

$53,340 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Medium

41,820 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-0.9% employment change

3,100 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 51 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$29,460 – $111,360

Highest medians

Hawaii $111,360
District of Columbia $91,280
Washington $90,530
Alaska $83,520
California $83,130

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $29,460
Mississippi $37,030
Alabama $41,880
Tennessee $42,510
Arkansas $44,010

State figures come from the 47-2071 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 10%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 88%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 12%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 0%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 39/100 Moderate

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

20 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 0%

0 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 6%

1 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 94%

19 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#4796 · Core · 8% automatable

Start machine, engage clutch, and push and move levers to guide machine along forms or guidelines and to control the operation of machine attachments.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#4809 · Core · 3% automatable

Fill tanks, hoppers, or machines with paving materials.

physical manipulation — Hands-on loading of construction equipment

Load materials into construction equipment.
#4807 · Core · 8% automatable

Control paving machines to push dump trucks and to maintain a constant flow of asphalt or other material into hoppers or screeds.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#4805 · Core · 24% automatable

Observe distribution of paving material to adjust machine settings or material flow, and indicate low spots for workers to add material.

visual inspection — Construction oversight requires on-site physical presence

Monitor construction operations. Direct construction or extraction personnel.
#4800 · Core · 35% automatable

Coordinate truck dumping.

decision support — AI aids scheduling; field coordination and conflict resolution human

Coordinate construction project activities.
#4804 · Core · 10% automatable

Drive machines onto truck trailers, and drive trucks to transport machines and material to and from job sites.

situated mobility — Truck driving needs real-world navigation and control

Drive trucks or truck-mounted equipment.
#4797 · Core · 13% automatable

Inspect, clean, maintain, and repair equipment, using mechanics' hand tools, or report malfunctions to supervisors.

visual inspection — Construction equipment inspection is physical, hands-on

Inspect equipment or tools to be used in construction or excavation. Clean equipment or facilities. Maintain construction tools or equipment.
#4801 · Core · 8% automatable

Set up and tear down equipment.

physical manipulation — Erecting temporary structures requires physical assembly

Assemble temporary equipment or structures. Dismantle equipment or temporary structures.
#4798 · Core · 7% automatable

Operate machines to spread, smooth, level, or steel-reinforce stone, concrete, or asphalt on road beds.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Spread concrete or other aggregate mixtures. Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#4806 · Core · 8% automatable

Light burners or start heating units of machines, and regulate screed temperatures and asphalt flow rates.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#20143 · Core · 5% automatable

Control traffic.

situated mobility — Directing live traffic requires physical presence

Direct vehicle traffic.
#4803 · Core · 3% automatable

Shovel blacktop.

physical manipulation — Hands-on spreading of loose materials

Spread sand, dirt or other loose materials onto surfaces.
#4802 · Core · 7% automatable

Operate tamping machines or manually roll surfaces to compact earth fills, foundation forms, and finished road materials, according to grade specifications.

physical manipulation — Operating compaction equipment by hand on site

Compact materials to create level bases.
#4799 · Core · 8% automatable

Operate oil distributors, loaders, chip spreaders, dump trucks, and snow plows.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Operate road-surfacing equipment. Operate equipment or vehicles to clear construction sites or move materials.
#4814 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Place strips of material, such as cork, asphalt, or steel into joints, or place rolls of expansion-joint material on machines that automatically insert material.

physical manipulation — Applying filler to surfaces is hands-on

Load materials into construction equipment. Apply material to fill gaps in surfaces.
#4810 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Drive and operate curbing machines to extrude concrete or asphalt curbing.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#4813 · Supplemental · 7% automatable

Operate machines that clean or cut expansion joints in concrete or asphalt and that rout out cracks in pavement.

physical manipulation — Road-surfacing equipment operated manually

Cut tile, stone, or other masonry materials. Operate road-surfacing equipment.
#4811 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Cut or break up pavement and drive guardrail posts, using machines equipped with interchangeable hammers.

physical manipulation — Heavy construction equipment operated manually

Operate heavy-duty construction or installation equipment. Break up rock, asphalt, or concrete.
#4812 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Install dies, cutters, and extensions to screeds onto machines, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Hands-on equipment attachment

Install equipment attachments or components.
#4808 · Supplemental · 7% automatable

Set up forms and lay out guidelines for curbs, according to written specifications, using string, spray paint, and concrete or water mixes.

physical manipulation — Marking reference points is hands-on site work

Build construction forms or molds. Mark reference points on construction materials.
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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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