AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Paperhangers?

Task-level automation exposure for Paperhangers: 19 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

12% weighted task index

19 of 19 tasks scored

Median Salary

$52,140 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

1,570 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+4.3% employment change

200 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 13 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$46,010 – $62,790

Highest medians

California $62,790

Pennsylvania $61,800

New York $60,230

Missouri $59,560

Indiana $54,810

Lowest medians

Tennessee $46,010

Washington $46,270

South Carolina $46,800

Ohio $47,830

Colorado $48,180

State figures come from the 47-2142 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 12%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 86%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 9%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 0%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 22/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

19 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 0%

0 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 9%

2 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 91%

17 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

New 08/2026 · Incumbent

Hang and secure vinyl tarps to billboards.

Constituent Tasks

#14914 · Core · 4% automatable

Place strips or sections of paper on surfaces, aligning section edges and patterns.

physical manipulation — Hands-on textured finish application

Apply decorative or textured finishes or coverings.

#14906 · Core · 4% automatable

Smooth strips or sections of paper with brushes or rollers to remove wrinkles and bubbles and to smooth joints.

physical manipulation — Hands-on textured finish application

Apply decorative or textured finishes or coverings.

#14923 · Supplemental · 42% automatable

Staple or tack advertising posters onto fences, walls, billboards, or poles.

decision support — AI drafts campaigns; execution and budget owned by humans

Implement advertising or marketing initiatives.

#14916 · Supplemental · 54% automatable

Measure surfaces or review work orders to estimate the quantities of materials needed.

visual inspection — Specs reading aided, human validates requirements

Review blueprints or specifications to determine work requirements. Measure work site dimensions. Estimate materials requirements for projects.

#14909 · Supplemental · 20% automatable

Check finished wallcoverings for proper alignment, pattern matching, and neatness of seams.

visual inspection — Installation inspection requires on-site physical check

Inspect completed work to ensure proper installation.

#14918 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Smooth rough spots on walls and ceilings, using sandpaper.

physical manipulation — Abrasive hand work on physical surfaces

Smooth surfaces with abrasive materials or tools.

#14911 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Cover interior walls and ceilings of rooms with decorative wallpaper or fabric, using hand tools.

physical manipulation — Hands-on textured finish application

Apply decorative or textured finishes or coverings.

#14907 · Supplemental · 7% automatable

Trim rough edges from strips, using straightedges and trimming knives.

physical manipulation — On-site trimming of installed materials

Trim excess material from installations.

#14917 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Apply sizing to seal surfaces and maximize adhesion of coverings to surfaces.

physical manipulation — Hands-on surface preparation before finishing

Prepare surfaces for finishing.

#14919 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Set up equipment, such as pasteboards and scaffolds.

physical manipulation — Erecting temporary structures requires physical assembly

Assemble temporary equipment or structures.

#14913 · Supplemental · 15% automatable

Measure and cut strips from rolls of wallpaper or fabric, using shears or razors.

physical manipulation — Physical measurement for assembly fitting

Measure materials or objects for installation or assembly. Cut carpet, vinyl or other flexible materials.

#14908 · Supplemental · 7% automatable

Trim excess material at ceilings or baseboards, using knives.

physical manipulation — On-site trimming of installed materials

Trim excess material from installations.

#14922 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Mix paste, using paste powder and water, and brush paste onto surfaces.

physical manipulation — Physical handling of substances in workspace

Mix substances or compounds needed for work activities. Apply adhesives to construction materials.

#14912 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Apply adhesives to the backs of paper strips, using brushes, or dunk strips of prepasted wallcovering in water, wiping off any excess adhesive.

physical manipulation — Hands-on adhesive application in unstructured construction settings

Apply adhesives to construction materials.

#14921 · Supplemental · 9% automatable

Apply thinned glue to waterproof porous surfaces, using brushes, rollers, or pasting machines.

physical manipulation — Applying sealants requires hands-on coating

Apply adhesives to construction materials. Apply sealants or other protective coatings.

#14915 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Fill holes, cracks, and other surface imperfections preparatory to covering surfaces.

physical manipulation — Applying filler to surfaces is hands-on

Apply material to fill gaps in surfaces.

#14910 · Supplemental · 8% automatable

Mark vertical guidelines on walls to align strips, using plumb bobs and chalk lines.

physical manipulation — Marking reference points is hands-on site work

Mark reference points on construction materials.

#14920 · Supplemental · 5% automatable

Remove old paper, using water, steam machines, or solvents and scrapers.

physical manipulation — Hands-on removal of worn materials

Remove worn, damaged or outdated materials from work areas.

#14924 · Supplemental · 10% automatable

Remove paint, varnish, dirt, and grease from surfaces, using paint remover and water soda solutions.

physical manipulation — Surface preparation is hands-on physical work

Clean surfaces in preparation for work activities.

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Community Sentiment

Do you agree?

Do you agree with the AI automation risk score calculated for this occupation?

Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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