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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric?
Task-level automation exposure for Orthopedic Surgeons, Except Pediatric: 15 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
34%
weighted task index
15 of 15 tasks scored
Median Salary
$358,550 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
14,100 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+4.0%
employment change
400 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 31 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$177,710 – $842,800
Highest medians
Missouri $842,800
West Virginia $597,740
Wisconsin $572,060
Montana $560,820
Arizona $558,970
Lowest medians
Indiana $177,710
Iowa $189,410
Texas $200,780
California $253,430
Arkansas $262,470
State figures come from the 29-1242 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 34%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 7%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 67%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 7%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Constituent Task Mix
15 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 7%
1 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 40%
6 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 53%
8 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#22745 · Core · 55% automatable
Analyze patient's medical history, medication allergies, physical condition, and examination results to verify operation's necessity and to determine best procedure.
decision support — Treatment goals need clinical accountability and context
Analyze patient data to determine patient needs or treatment goals.
#22746 · Core · 40% automatable
Conduct research to develop and test surgical techniques that can improve operating procedures and outcomes related to musculoskeletal injuries and diseases.
information retrieval — Literature review aided; wet-lab and clinical research human
Conduct research to increase knowledge about medical issues.
#22747 · Core · 22% automatable
Diagnose bodily disorders and orthopedic conditions, and provide treatments, such as medicines and surgeries, in clinics, hospital wards, or operating rooms.
decision support — AI suggests differentials; clinician examines and owns diagnosis
Diagnose medical conditions. Operate on patients to treat conditions. Prescribe medications.
#22748 · Core · 28% automatable
Diagnose or treat disorders of the musculoskeletal system.
decision support — AI suggests differentials; clinician examines and owns diagnosis
Diagnose medical conditions. Treat chronic diseases or disorders.
#22749 · Core · 25% automatable
Direct and coordinate activities of nurses, assistants, specialists, residents, and other medical staff.
interpersonal — Patient care supervision is live clinical leadership
Supervise patient care personnel.
#22750 · Core · 12% automatable
Examine instruments, equipment, and operating room to ensure sterility.
physical manipulation — Loading and operating sterilizing equipment by hand
Sterilize medical equipment or instruments.
#22751 · Core · 12% automatable
Examine patient to obtain information on medical condition and surgical risk.
visual inspection — Patient physical assessment is hands-on clinical work
Examine patients to assess general physical condition.
#22752 · Core · 35% automatable
Follow established surgical techniques during the operation.
decision support — AI recalls protocols; execution and accountability are human
Follow protocols or regulations for healthcare activities.
#22753 · Core · 56% automatable
Manage surgery services, including planning, scheduling and coordination, determination of procedures, or procurement of supplies and equipment.
decision support — Medical supply ordering via systems; human approves
Schedule patient procedures or appointments. Manage healthcare operations. Order medical supplies or equipment.
#22754 · Core · 2% automatable
Operate on patient's musculoskeletal system to correct deformities, repair injuries, prevent and treat diseases, or improve or restore patient's functions.
physical manipulation — Surgery is physical and high-accountability
Operate on patients to treat conditions.
#22755 · Core · 52% automatable
Order and interpret the results of laboratory tests and diagnostic imaging procedures.
visual inspection — Image interpretation assists; radiologist owns diagnosis
Analyze test data or images to inform diagnosis or treatment. Order medical diagnostic or clinical tests.
#22756 · Core · 62% automatable
Prepare case histories.
interpersonal — Patient history requires live elicitation and judgment
Record patient medical histories.
#22757 · Core · 24% automatable
Prescribe preoperative and postoperative treatments and procedures, such as sedatives, diets, antibiotics, or preparation and treatment of the patient's operative area.
decision support — Prescribing therapy requires licensed clinical accountability
Prescribe treatments or therapies. Prescribe medications.
#22758 · Core · 28% automatable
Provide consultation and surgical assistance to other physicians and surgeons.
decision support — Clinical advice needs licensed accountability and context
Assist healthcare practitioners during surgery. Advise medical personnel regarding healthcare issues.
#22759 · Core · 55% automatable
Refer patient to medical specialist or other practitioners when necessary.
decision support — Clinical referral judgment needs licensed human accountability
Refer patients to other healthcare practitioners or health resources.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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