Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Nurse Practitioners?

Task-level automation exposure for Nurse Practitioners: 27 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

41% weighted task index

27 of 27 tasks scored

Median Salary

$132,300 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Very High

323,040 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+41.0% employment change

29,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 52 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$105,750 – $168,520

Highest medians

California $168,520
New Jersey $159,310
Washington $156,100
Oregon $155,680
Alaska $155,170

Lowest medians

Alabama $105,750
Tennessee $117,590
Guam $118,670
Kentucky $122,870
South Carolina $123,290

State figures come from the 29-1171 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 41%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 4%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 69%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 4%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 70/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

27 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 20%

6 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 34%

9 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 45%

12 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#18399 · Core · 62% automatable

Maintain complete and detailed records of patients' health care plans and prognoses.

interpersonal — Patient history requires live elicitation and judgment

Record patient medical histories.
#18389 · Core · 38% automatable

Develop treatment plans, based on scientific rationale, standards of care, and professional practice guidelines.

decision support — Medical plans need exam, liability, and clinical judgment

Develop medical treatment plans.
#18393 · Core · 42% automatable

Provide patients with information needed to promote health, reduce risk factors, or prevent disease or disability.

interpersonal — Medical communication needs empathy and clinical accountability

Communicate detailed medical information to patients or family members.
#18382 · Core · 58% automatable

Analyze and interpret patients' histories, symptoms, physical findings, or diagnostic information to develop appropriate diagnoses.

visual inspection — Image interpretation assists; radiologist owns diagnosis

Analyze test data or images to inform diagnosis or treatment.
#18385 · Core · 30% automatable

Diagnose or treat complex, unstable, comorbid, episodic, or emergency conditions in collaboration with other health care providers as necessary.

decision support — AI suggests differentials; clinician examines and owns diagnosis

Diagnose medical conditions. Treat medical emergencies.
#18396 · Core · 22% automatable

Prescribe medication dosages, routes, and frequencies, based on such patient characteristics as age and gender.

decision support — Prescribing medications is licensed high-stakes judgment

Prescribe medications.
#18384 · Core · 28% automatable

Diagnose or treat chronic health care problems, such as high blood pressure and diabetes.

decision support — AI suggests differentials; clinician examines and owns diagnosis

Diagnose medical conditions. Treat chronic diseases or disorders.
#18392 · Core · 22% automatable

Prescribe medications based on efficacy, safety, and cost as legally authorized.

decision support — Prescribing medications is licensed high-stakes judgment

Prescribe medications.
#18394 · Core · 25% automatable

Recommend diagnostic or therapeutic interventions with attention to safety, cost, invasiveness, simplicity, acceptability, adherence, and efficacy.

decision support — Prescribing therapy requires licensed clinical accountability

Prescribe treatments or therapies.
#18388 · Core · 28% automatable

Detect and respond to adverse drug reactions, with special attention to vulnerable populations such as infants, children, pregnant and lactating women, or older adults.

decision support — In-procedure patient monitoring is hands-on clinical work

Monitor patient conditions during treatments, procedures, or activities.
#18383 · Core · 27% automatable

Diagnose or treat acute health care problems, such as illnesses, infections, or injuries.

decision support — AI suggests differentials; clinician examines and owns diagnosis

Diagnose medical conditions. Treat acute illnesses, infections, or injuries.
#18380 · Core · 55% automatable

Counsel patients about drug regimens and possible side effects or interactions with other substances, such as food supplements, over-the-counter (OTC) medications, or herbal remedies.

decision support — Treatment-effect advice needs clinical tailoring

Advise patients on effects of health conditions or treatments.
#18381 · Core · 41% automatable

Order, perform, or interpret the results of diagnostic tests, such as complete blood counts (CBCs), electrocardiograms (EKGs), and radiographs (x-rays).

visual inspection — Image interpretation assists; radiologist owns diagnosis

Analyze test data or images to inform diagnosis or treatment. Operate diagnostic imaging equipment. Order medical diagnostic or clinical tests.
#18378 · Core · 30% automatable

Educate patients about self-management of acute or chronic illnesses, tailoring instructions to patients' individual circumstances.

interpersonal — Caregiver technique training is live and relational

Train patients, family members, or caregivers in techniques for managing disabilities or illnesses.
#18402 · Core · 75% automatable

Maintain current knowledge of state legal regulations for nurse practitioner practice, including reimbursement of services.

information retrieval — AI summarizes medical updates; human retains judgment

Maintain medical or professional knowledge.
#18395 · Core · 55% automatable

Recommend interventions to modify behavior associated with health risks.

decision support — Wellness advice needs tailoring and clinical accountability

Provide health and wellness advice to patients, program participants, or caregivers.
#18387 · Core · 48% automatable

Consult with, or refer patients to, appropriate specialists when conditions exceed the scope of practice or expertise.

decision support — Clinical referral judgment needs licensed human accountability

Collaborate with healthcare professionals to plan or provide treatment. Refer patients to other healthcare practitioners or health resources.
#18386 · Core · 34% automatable

Treat or refer patients for primary care conditions, such as headaches, hypertension, urinary tract infections, upper respiratory infections, and dermatological conditions.

decision support — Clinical referral judgment needs licensed human accountability

Refer patients to other healthcare practitioners or health resources. Treat acute illnesses, infections, or injuries.
#18400 · Core · 75% automatable

Read current literature, talk with colleagues, or participate in professional organizations or conferences to keep abreast of developments in nursing.

information retrieval — AI summarizes medical updates; human retains judgment

Maintain medical or professional knowledge.
#18379 · Core · 62% automatable

Schedule follow-up visits to monitor patients or evaluate health or illness care.

decision support — Clinical scheduling needs human verification of constraints

Schedule patient procedures or appointments.
#18391 · Core · 12% automatable

Perform routine or annual physical examinations.

visual inspection — Patient physical assessment is hands-on clinical work

Examine patients to assess general physical condition.
#18403 · Core · 35% automatable

Maintain departmental policies and procedures in areas such as safety and infection control.

decision support — AI recalls protocols; execution and accountability are human

Follow protocols or regulations for healthcare activities.
#18397 · Core · 35% automatable

Advocate for accessible health care that minimizes environmental health risks.

interpersonal — Advocacy requires relationships and accountability

Advocate for individual or community needs.
#18390 · Core · 7% automatable

Perform primary care procedures such as suturing, splinting, administering immunizations, taking cultures, and debriding wounds.

physical manipulation — Hands-on treatment of acute conditions

Immunize patients. Apply bandages, dressings, or splints. Treat acute illnesses, infections, or injuries.
#18398 · Core · 65% automatable

Provide patients or caregivers with assistance in locating health care resources.

information retrieval — Healthcare process guidance is largely informational

Advise patients on healthcare system processes.
#18401 · Core · 75% automatable

Keep abreast of regulatory processes and payer systems, such as Medicare, Medicaid, managed care, and private sources.

information retrieval — AI summarizes medical updates; human retains judgment

Maintain medical or professional knowledge.
#18404 · Core · 25% automatable

Supervise or coordinate patient care or support staff activities.

interpersonal — Patient care supervision is live clinical leadership

Supervise patient care personnel.
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Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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