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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Music Directors and Composers?
Task-level automation exposure for Music Directors and Composers: 30 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
47%
weighted task index
30 of 30 tasks scored
Median Salary
$73,710 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Low
12,540 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+1.2%
employment change
4,200 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 30 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$42,250 – $122,750
Highest medians
New Jersey $122,750
California $93,090
Colorado $88,460
District of Columbia $84,040
New York $82,930
Lowest medians
Alabama $42,250
Illinois $49,270
Montana $51,530
Oklahoma $54,250
Florida $57,830
State figures come from the 27-2041 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 47%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 2%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 60%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 0%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 1/100
Low
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
30 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 11%
3 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 59%
18 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 30%
9 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#22544 · Core · 20% automatable
Use gestures to shape the music being played, communicating desired tempo, phrasing, tone, color, pitch, volume, and other performance aspects.
interpersonal — Musical rehearsal coordination is embodied human work
Coordinate musical rehearsals or performances.
#22545 · Core · 20% automatable
Direct groups at rehearsals and live or recorded performances to achieve desired effects such as tonal and harmonic balance dynamics, rhythm, and tempo.
interpersonal — Musical rehearsal coordination is embodied human work
Coordinate musical rehearsals or performances.
#22546 · Core · 55% automatable
Study scores to learn the music in detail, and to develop interpretations.
data analysis — Score analysis possible but interpretive musical judgment human
Study details of musical compositions.
#22547 · Core · 55% automatable
Apply elements of music theory to create musical and tonal structures, including harmonies and melodies.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22548 · Core · 72% automatable
Consider such factors as ensemble size and abilities, availability of scores, and the need for musical variety, to select music to be performed.
text generation — Content selection aided; audience judgment human
Determine presentation subjects or content.
#22549 · Core · 55% automatable
Determine voices, instruments, harmonic structures, rhythms, tempos, and tone balances required to achieve the effects desired in a musical composition.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22550 · Core · 55% automatable
Experiment with different sounds, and types and pieces of music, using synthesizers and computers as necessary to test and evaluate ideas.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22551 · Core · 55% automatable
Transcribe ideas for musical compositions into musical notation, using instruments, pen and paper, or computers.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22552 · Core · 34% automatable
Audition and select performers for musical presentations.
interpersonal — Interviewing and judging performers is human relational work
Audition or interview potential performers or staff members. Select staff, team members, or performers.
#22553 · Core · 20% automatable
Plan and schedule rehearsals and performances, and arrange details such as locations, accompanists, and instrumentalists.
interpersonal — Musical rehearsal coordination is embodied human work
Coordinate musical rehearsals or performances.
#22554 · Core · 55% automatable
Write musical scores for orchestras, bands, choral groups, or individual instrumentalists or vocalists, using knowledge of music theory and of instrumental and vocal capabilities.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22555 · Core · 20% automatable
Position members within groups to obtain balance among instrumental or vocal sections.
interpersonal — Musical rehearsal coordination is embodied human work
Coordinate musical rehearsals or performances.
#22556 · Core · 42% automatable
Perform administrative tasks such as applying for grants, developing budgets, negotiating contracts, and designing and printing programs and other promotional materials.
text generation — Layout concepts generated; spatial/physical fit human-checked
Design layout of art or product exhibits, displays, or promotional materials. Negotiate for services. Direct fundraising or financing activities.
#22557 · Core · 55% automatable
Confer with producers and directors to define the nature and placement of film or television music.
interpersonal — Technical detail negotiation is interactive human work
Collaborate with others to determine technical details of productions.
#22558 · Core · 20% automatable
Meet with soloists and concertmasters to discuss and prepare for performances.
interpersonal — Collaborative artistic production needs live human coordination
Collaborate with others to prepare or perform artistic productions.
#22559 · Core · 55% automatable
Fill in details of orchestral sketches, such as adding vocal parts to scores.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22560 · Core · 55% automatable
Explore and develop musical ideas based on sources such as imagination or sounds in the environment.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22561 · Core · 55% automatable
Write music for commercial mediums, including advertising jingles or film soundtracks.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22562 · Core · 55% automatable
Transpose music from one voice or instrument to another to accommodate particular musicians.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22563 · Core · 55% automatable
Rewrite original musical scores in different musical styles by changing rhythms, harmonies, or tempos.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22564 · Core · 55% automatable
Arrange music composed by others, changing the music to achieve desired effects.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22565 · Core · 30% automatable
Assign and review staff work in such areas as scoring, arranging, and copying music, and vocal coaching.
interpersonal — Artistic coordination needs human creative leadership
Coordinate artistic activities.
#22566 · Core · 72% automatable
Study films or scripts to determine how musical scores can be used to create desired effects or moods.
text generation — Script comprehension and requirement extraction well handled
Study scripts to determine project requirements.
#22567 · Core · 55% automatable
Transcribe musical compositions and melodic lines to adapt them to a particular group, or to create a particular musical style.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22568 · Core · 55% automatable
Create original musical forms, or write within circumscribed musical forms such as sonatas, symphonies, or operas.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22569 · Core · 20% automatable
Collaborate with other colleagues, such as copyists, to complete final scores.
interpersonal — Collaborative artistic production needs live human coordination
Collaborate with others to prepare or perform artistic productions.
#22570 · Core · 55% automatable
Copy parts from scores for individual performers.
text generation — Composition aided; artistic quality and intent human
Create musical compositions, arrangements or scores.
#22571 · Supplemental · 45% automatable
Coordinate and organize tours, or hire touring companies to arrange concert dates, venues, accommodations, and transportation for longer tours.
decision support — AI aids logistics planning; on-site event execution human
Coordinate logistics for productions or events.
#22572 · Core · 20% automatable
Produce recordings of music.
physical manipulation — Recording equipment physically set up and operated
Operate audio recording equipment.
#22573 · Core · 80% automatable
Stay abreast of the latest trends in music and music technology.
information retrieval — AI monitors developments; human judges significance
Stay informed about current developments in field of specialization.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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