Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Mechanical Engineers?

Task-level automation exposure for Mechanical Engineers: 28 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

54% weighted task index

28 of 28 tasks scored

Median Salary

$104,110 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

296,810 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+11.2% employment change

17,800 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 53 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$61,510 – $157,710

Highest medians

New Mexico $157,710
District of Columbia $133,300
California $130,900
Delaware $125,130
Colorado $124,430

Lowest medians

Guam $61,510
Puerto Rico $72,240
Arkansas $80,180
Kansas $86,260
North Dakota $86,330

State figures come from the 17-2141 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 54%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 3%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 58%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 7%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 4%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 20/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

28 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 44%

12 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 36%

10 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 19%

6 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

  • Revision 08/2024 · Incumbent

    Investigate equipment failures or diagnose faulty operations and recommend or perform remedial actions.

    Replaced: Investigate equipment failures or difficulties to diagnose faulty operation and recommend remedial actions.

Constituent Tasks

#1411 · Core · 80% automatable

Read and interpret blueprints, technical drawings, schematics, or computer-generated reports.

text generation — Review technical docs to plan work

Review technical documents to plan work.
#20733 · Core · 50% automatable

Research, design, evaluate, install, operate, or maintain mechanical products, equipment, systems or processes to meet requirements.

data analysis — Equipment specs analysis aided; physical testing human

Evaluate characteristics of equipment or systems. Design industrial processing systems. Design industrial equipment.
#20736 · Core · 40% automatable

Specify system components or direct modification of products to ensure conformance with engineering design, performance specifications, or environmental regulations.

decision support — Process improvements need physical/organizational execution

Implement design or process improvements.
#1412 · Core · 56% automatable

Confer with engineers or other personnel to implement operating procedures, resolve system malfunctions, or provide technical information.

decision support — Design problem conferral aided; accountability stays human

Confer with technical personnel to prepare designs or operational plans. Confer with other personnel to resolve design or operational problems.
#20734 · Core · 54% automatable Revision

Investigate equipment failures or difficulties to diagnose faulty operation and recommend remedial actions.

decision support — Proposes design changes; human validates feasibility

Investigate system, equipment, or product failures. Recommend technical design or process changes to improve efficiency, quality, or performance.
#1421 · Core · 68% automatable

Recommend design modifications to eliminate machine or system malfunctions.

decision support — Proposes design changes; human validates feasibility

Recommend technical design or process changes to improve efficiency, quality, or performance.
#1413 · Core · 68% automatable

Research and analyze customer design proposals, specifications, manuals, or other data to evaluate the feasibility, cost, or maintenance requirements of designs or applications.

data analysis — Analyzes design/requirements data; engineer owns judgment

Analyze design or requirements information for mechanical equipment or systems.
#20741 · Core · 70% automatable

Provide technical customer service.

information retrieval — Product-use advice is largely informational with review

Advise customers on the use of products or services.
#1419 · Core · 25% automatable

Oversee installation, operation, maintenance, or repair to ensure that machines or equipment are installed and functioning according to specifications.

physical manipulation — Directing repair activities involves hands-on equipment work

Direct installation activities. Direct equipment maintenance or repair activities.
#20737 · Core · 61% automatable

Assist drafters in developing the structural design of products, using drafting tools or computer-assisted drafting equipment or software.

text generation — Generative image tools produce visuals; human curates

Create images or other visual displays. Design structures or facilities.
#1420 · Core · 30% automatable

Conduct research that tests or analyzes the feasibility, design, operation, or performance of equipment, components, or systems.

data analysis — AI interprets results; human runs physical tests

Test performance of electrical, electronic, mechanical, or integrated systems or equipment.
#20735 · Core · 45% automatable

Develop or test models of alternate designs or processing methods to assess feasibility, sustainability, operating condition effects, potential new applications, or necessity of modification.

data analysis — AI builds computational models; engineer validates assumptions

Test performance of electrical, electronic, mechanical, or integrated systems or equipment. Create models of engineering designs or methods.
#1418 · Core · 68% automatable

Provide feedback to design engineers on customer problems or needs.

decision support — Proposes design changes; human validates feasibility

Recommend technical design or process changes to improve efficiency, quality, or performance.
#1429 · Core · 82% automatable

Write performance requirements for product development or engineering projects.

text generation — Draft technical design docs from provided details

Document technical design details.
#20738 · Core · 68% automatable

Estimate costs or submit bids for engineering, construction, or extraction projects.

data analysis — Operational cost estimation from data

Estimate operational costs. Prepare proposal documents.
#1423 · Core · 28% automatable

Develop, coordinate, or monitor all aspects of production, including selection of manufacturing methods, fabrication, or operation of product designs.

interpersonal — Industrial production direction is human supervisory control

Direct industrial production activities.
#19628 · Supplemental · 45% automatable

Design integrated mechanical or alternative systems, such as mechanical cooling systems with natural ventilation systems, to improve energy efficiency.

decision support — AI models process systems; engineer validates feasibility

Design industrial processing systems.
#19627 · Supplemental · 68% automatable

Calculate energy losses for buildings, using equipment such as computers, combustion analyzers, or pressure gauges.

data analysis — Operational cost estimation from data

Estimate operational costs.
#19631 · Supplemental · 70% automatable

Recommend the use of utility or energy services that minimize carbon footprints.

information retrieval — Green practice advice is largely informational

Advise others regarding green practices or environmental concerns.
#20739 · Supplemental · 28% automatable

Perform personnel functions, such as supervision of production workers, technicians, technologists, or other engineers.

interpersonal — Supervising production staff is on-site human management

Supervise production or support personnel.
#1430 · Supplemental · 70% automatable

Apply engineering principles or practices to emerging fields, such as robotics, waste management, or biomedical engineering.

text generation — AI generates application ideas from technology knowledge

Identify new applications for existing technologies.
#19629 · Supplemental · 20% automatable

Direct the installation, operation, maintenance, or repair of renewable energy equipment, such as heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) or water systems.

physical manipulation — Installation direction is hands-on site supervision

Direct installation activities.
#19632 · Supplemental · 32% automatable

Select or install combined heat units, power units, cogeneration equipment, or trigeneration equipment that reduces energy use or pollution.

decision support — Tool selection needs context; human decides and procures

Select tools, equipment, or technologies for use in operations or projects. Install production equipment or systems.
#19630 · Supplemental · 58% automatable

Evaluate mechanical designs or prototypes for energy performance or environmental impact.

data analysis — Analyzes specs for implications; expert judgment required

Evaluate plans or specifications to determine technological or environmental implications.
#20742 · Supplemental · 55% automatable

Study industrial processes to maximize the efficiency of equipment applications, including equipment placement.

information retrieval — Process research aided; plant observation needs humans

Research industrial processes or operations.
#1431 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Design test control apparatus or equipment or develop procedures for testing products.

decision support — AI drafts electronics; engineer validates and tests

Design electronic or computer equipment or instrumentation.
#1427 · Supplemental · 47% automatable

Establish or coordinate the maintenance or safety procedures, service schedule, or supply of materials required to maintain machines or equipment in the prescribed condition.

decision support — Compliance coordination needs human accountability and site action

Determine operational methods. Coordinate safety or regulatory compliance activities. Direct equipment maintenance or repair activities.
#20740 · Supplemental · 62% automatable

Solicit new business.

text generation — Campaign content and analysis drafted; human executes strategy

Perform marketing activities.
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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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