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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Locomotive Engineers?
Task-level automation exposure for Locomotive Engineers: 15 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
34%
weighted task index
15 of 15 tasks scored
Median Salary
$81,410 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Medium
33,470 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+0.5%
employment change
2,000 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 35 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$61,190 – $109,220
Highest medians
New York $109,220
Massachusetts $108,790
Mississippi $96,710
Minnesota $93,700
Illinois $93,320
Lowest medians
North Carolina $61,190
Ohio $63,280
Louisiana $64,200
West Virginia $64,400
South Dakota $69,180
State figures come from the 53-4011 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 34%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 19%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 6%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 5%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 78/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
15 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 13%
2 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 37%
5 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 50%
8 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#12753 · Core · 36% automatable
Receive starting signals from conductors and use controls such as throttles or air brakes to drive electric, diesel-electric, steam, or gas turbine-electric locomotives.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles. Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#12750 · Core · 30% automatable
Monitor gauges or meters that measure speed, amperage, battery charge, or air pressure in brake lines or in main reservoirs.
visual inspection — Gauge reading requires physical presence
Monitor equipment gauges or displays to ensure proper operation.
#12752 · Core · 62% automatable
Interpret train orders, signals, or railroad rules and regulations that govern the operation of locomotives.
information retrieval — Receiving instructions is passive; AI can parse and relay
Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#12751 · Core · 30% automatable
Observe tracks to detect obstructions.
situated mobility — Hazard detection in surroundings needs embodied sensing
Monitor surroundings to detect potential hazards.
#12754 · Core · 35% automatable
Confer with conductors or traffic control center personnel via radiophones to issue or receive information concerning stops, delays, or oncoming trains.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#12759 · Core · 55% automatable
Inspect locomotives to verify adequate fuel, sand, water, or other supplies before each run or to check for mechanical problems.
information retrieval — Digital tracking automatable; physical stock checks need humans
Monitor availability of equipment or supplies.
#12755 · Core · 10% automatable
Operate locomotives to transport freight or passengers between stations or to assemble or disassemble trains within rail yards.
situated mobility — Locomotive operation requires real-world vehicle control
Operate locomotives or other rail vehicles.
#12756 · Core · 8% automatable
Respond to emergency conditions or breakdowns, following applicable safety procedures and rules.
situated mobility — Transportation emergencies demand on-scene physical response
Respond to transportation emergencies.
#12757 · Core · 45% automatable
Check to ensure that brake examination tests are conducted at shunting stations.
decision support — AI flags quality/safety issues; human owns physical verification
Monitor operational quality or safety.
#12762 · Core · 15% automatable
Inspect locomotives after runs to detect damaged or defective equipment.
visual inspection — Locomotive inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect locomotives or other railroad equipment.
#12758 · Core · 5% automatable
Call out train signals to assistants to verify meanings.
physical manipulation — Physical hand signals to direct vehicle movement
Signal others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#12761 · Core · 55% automatable
Check to ensure that documentation, such as procedure manuals or logbooks, are in the driver's cab and available for staff use.
information retrieval — Digital tracking automatable; physical stock checks need humans
Monitor availability of equipment or supplies.
#12760 · Core · 72% automatable
Prepare reports regarding any problems encountered, such as accidents, signaling problems, unscheduled stops, or delays.
text generation — Draft incident reports; human verifies facts and liability
Prepare accident or incident reports.
#12764 · Supplemental · 33% automatable
Monitor train loading procedures to ensure that freight or rolling stock are loaded or unloaded without damage.
visual inspection — Loading oversight is physical, in-the-world supervision
Monitor loading processes to ensure they are performed properly.
#12763 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Drive diesel-electric rail-detector cars to transport rail-flaw-detecting machines over tracks.
situated mobility — Driving vehicles to transport people/equipment
Drive vehicles to transport individuals or equipment. Drive trucks or other vehicles to or at work sites.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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