Gini Loh System Tools

AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers?

Task-level automation exposure for Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers: 30 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

42% weighted task index

30 of 30 tasks scored

Median Salary

$89,900 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

6,500 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-3.4% employment change

70,800 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 30 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$62,740 – $111,460

Highest medians

Nebraska $111,460
Montana $110,250
California $109,140
Washington $103,240
Kansas $102,490

Lowest medians

West Virginia $62,740
Arkansas $63,920
Minnesota $65,900
Ohio $65,990
Virginia $66,780

State figures come from the 11-9013 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 42%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 8%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 66%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 13%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 3/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

30 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 26%

8 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 30%

8 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 44%

14 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#21370 · Core · 83% automatable

Collect and record growth, production, and environmental data.

data analysis — Compiling operational data from sources is automatable

Compile operational data. Maintain operational records.
#21371 · Core · 28% automatable

Manage nurseries that grow horticultural plants for sale to trade or retail customers, for display or exhibition, or for research.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21372 · Core · 28% automatable

Direct and monitor trapping and spawning of fish, egg incubation, and fry rearing, applying knowledge of management and fish culturing techniques.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21373 · Core · 28% automatable

Direct and monitor the transfer of mature fish to lakes, ponds, streams, or commercial tanks.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21374 · Core · 65% automatable

Determine how to allocate resources and to respond to unanticipated problems, such as insect infestation, drought, and fire.

data analysis — Analyzes records for budgeting; human sets priorities

Analyze financial records to improve budgeting or planning. Determine resource needs. Develop emergency response plans or procedures.
#21375 · Core · 28% automatable

Determine plant growing conditions, such as greenhouses, hydroponics, or natural settings, and set planting and care schedules.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21376 · Core · 45% automatable

Devise and participate in activities to improve fish hatching and growth rates, and to prevent disease in hatcheries.

decision support — AI proposes agricultural methods; field validation required

Develop agricultural methods.
#21377 · Core · 3% automatable

Position and regulate plant irrigation systems, and program environmental and irrigation control computers.

physical manipulation — Manual agricultural labor in unstructured fields

Perform manual agricultural, aquacultural, or horticultural tasks.
#21378 · Core · 74% automatable

Prepare reports required by state and federal laws.

text generation — Maintain compliance docs; human verifies currency

Prepare reports related to compliance matters. Maintain regulatory or compliance documentation.
#21379 · Core · 15% automatable

Inspect facilities and equipment for signs of disrepair, and perform necessary maintenance work.

visual inspection — Physical condition/function check needs hands-on access

Inspect condition or functioning of facilities or equipment. Perform manual service or maintenance tasks.
#21380 · Core · 79% automatable

Maintain financial, operational, production, or employment records for farms or ranches.

data analysis — Maintain operational records in structured systems

Maintain operational records. Maintain personnel records.
#21381 · Core · 33% automatable

Coordinate clerical, record-keeping, inventory, requisitioning, and marketing activities.

interpersonal — Directing admin services is supervisory accountability

Direct sales, marketing, or customer service activities. Direct administrative or support services. Direct organizational operations, projects, or services.
#21382 · Core · 28% automatable

Direct the breeding or raising of stock, such as cattle, poultry, or honeybees, using recognized breeding practices to ensure stock improvement.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21383 · Core · 35% automatable

Negotiate with buyers for the sale, storage, or shipment of crops or livestock.

interpersonal — Negotiation needs authority and live give-and-take

Negotiate sales or lease agreements for products or services. Negotiate contracts for transportation, distribution, or logistics services.
#21384 · Core · 28% automatable

Coordinate the selection and maintenance of brood stock.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21385 · Core · 25% automatable

Analyze soil to determine types or quantities of fertilizer required for maximum crop production.

physical manipulation — Testing samples requires lab hands-on work

Test materials, solutions, or samples.
#21386 · Core · 65% automatable

Provide information to customers on the care of trees, shrubs, flowers, plants, and lawns.

decision support — Technical advice needs product-specific human judgment

Advise customers on technical or procedural issues.
#21387 · Core · 72% automatable

Analyze market conditions to determine acreage allocations.

data analysis — Operational data analysis; manager owns decisions

Analyze data to inform operational decisions or activities.
#21388 · Core · 22% automatable

Supervise the construction of farm or ranch structures, such as buildings, fences, drainage systems, wells, or roads.

interpersonal — Managing construction is site leadership and accountability

Manage construction activities.
#21389 · Supplemental · 3% automatable

Replace chemical insecticides with environmentally friendly practices, such as adding pest-repelling plants to fields.

physical manipulation — Manual agricultural labor in unstructured fields

Perform manual agricultural, aquacultural, or horticultural tasks.
#21390 · Core · 35% automatable

Conduct inspections to determine crop maturity or condition or to detect disease or insect infestation.

visual inspection — Crop quality needs physical inspection and sensory judgment

Evaluate quality of plants or crops.
#21391 · Core · 20% automatable

Conduct or supervise stock examinations to identify diseases or parasites.

interpersonal — Directing field employees is on-site human supervision

Examine animals to detect illness, injury or other problems. Direct activities of agricultural, forestry, or fishery employees.
#21392 · Core · 50% automatable

Determine types or quantities of crops, plants, or livestock to be grown and raised, based on budgets, federal incentives, market conditions, executive directives, projected sales volumes, or soil conditions.

decision support — Field/seasonal estimates need situated local knowledge

Estimate labor or resource requirements for forestry, fishing, or agricultural operations.
#21393 · Core · 45% automatable

Determine, administer, and execute policies relating to operations administration and standards, facility maintenance, and safety.

decision support — AI drafts policies; accountability and context are human

Develop organizational policies or programs. Direct organizational operations, projects, or services.
#21394 · Core · 28% automatable

Direct crop production operations, such as planning, tilling, planting, fertilizing, cultivating, spraying, and harvesting.

interpersonal — Managing farm operations needs situated human judgment

Manage agricultural or forestry operations.
#21395 · Core · 58% automatable

Evaluate marketing or sales alternatives for products.

text generation — Plans drafted; human owns positioning and approval

Develop marketing plans or strategies.
#21396 · Core · 35% automatable

Hire, supervise, and train support workers.

interpersonal — Program design aided, delivery and engagement are human

Conduct employee training programs. Supervise employees. Hire personnel.
#21397 · Core · 65% automatable

Monitor activities, such as irrigation, chemical application, harvesting, milking, breeding, and grading, to ensure adherence to safety regulations or standards.

decision support — AI tracks regulatory compliance across documents

Monitor organizational compliance with regulations.
#21398 · Core · 45% automatable

Monitor environments to ensure maintenance of optimum animal or plant life.

decision support — AI flags quality/safety issues; human owns physical verification

Monitor operational quality or safety.
#21399 · Core · 65% automatable

Obtain financing for and purchase necessary machinery, land, supplies, or livestock.

text generation — Financial applications filled digitally; human signs off

Submit financial applications. Purchase materials, equipment, or other resources.
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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

  1. 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
  2. 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
  3. 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
  4. 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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