AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Computer Programmers?

Task-level automation exposure for Computer Programmers: 17 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

66% weighted task index

17 of 17 tasks scored

Median Salary

$100,390 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Medium

92,230 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

-7.3% employment change

4,400 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 47 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$51,310 – $133,820

Highest medians

Connecticut $133,820

Massachusetts $128,390

Washington $125,620

Maryland $125,570

Virginia $121,610

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $51,310

South Dakota $58,240

West Virginia $65,320

Michigan $65,860

Illinois $72,540

State figures come from the 15-1251 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 66%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 0%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 49%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 11%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 6/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

17 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 73%

11 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 27%

6 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 0%

0 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#1273 · Core · 76% automatable

Write, analyze, review, and rewrite programs, using workflow chart and diagram, and applying knowledge of computer capabilities, subject matter, and symbolic logic.

text generation — Code generation strong; human reviews and integrates

Modify software programs to improve performance. Write computer programming code.

#1267 · Core · 66% automatable

Correct errors by making appropriate changes and rechecking the program to ensure that the desired results are produced.

data analysis — AI can run and analyze software performance tests

Test software performance. Resolve computer software problems.

#1272 · Core · 70% automatable

Perform or direct revision, repair, or expansion of existing programs to increase operating efficiency or adapt to new requirements.

text generation — Performance refactoring largely AI; human tests and approves

Modify software programs to improve performance.

#1270 · Core · 76% automatable

Write, update, and maintain computer programs or software packages to handle specific jobs such as tracking inventory, storing or retrieving data, or controlling other equipment.

text generation — Code generation strong; human reviews and integrates

Modify software programs to improve performance. Write computer programming code.

#1271 · Core · 62% automatable

Consult with managerial, engineering, and technical personnel to clarify program intent, identify problems, and suggest changes.

decision support — IT troubleshooting collaboration well-supported by AI

Collaborate with others to resolve information technology issues.

#1268 · Core · 72% automatable

Conduct trial runs of programs and software applications to be sure they will produce the desired information and that the instructions are correct.

data analysis — AI can run and analyze software performance tests

Test software performance.

#1276 · Core · 65% automatable

Prepare detailed workflow charts and diagrams that describe input, output, and logical operation, and convert them into a series of instructions coded in a computer language.

visual inspection — Generates flow charts; system accuracy verified by human

Develop diagrams or flow charts of system operation. Develop models of information or communications systems.

#1269 · Core · 80% automatable

Compile and write documentation of program development and subsequent revisions, inserting comments in the coded instructions so others can understand the program.

text generation — Draft procedure docs from described process

Document design or development procedures.

#1278 · Core · 62% automatable

Consult with and assist computer operators or system analysts to define and resolve problems in running computer programs.

decision support — IT troubleshooting collaboration well-supported by AI

Collaborate with others to resolve information technology issues.

#1277 · Core · 55% automatable

Perform systems analysis and programming tasks to maintain and control the use of computer systems software as a systems programmer.

data analysis — AI interprets test output; human executes tests

Test computer system operations to ensure proper functioning.

#1274 · Core · 80% automatable

Write or contribute to instructions or manuals to guide end users.

text generation — Draft instruction manuals from product details

Prepare instruction manuals.

#1275 · Core · 55% automatable

Investigate whether networks, workstations, the central processing unit of the system, or peripheral equipment are responding to a program's instructions.

data analysis — AI interprets test output; human executes tests

Test computer system operations to ensure proper functioning.

#1279 · Core · 46% automatable

Assign, coordinate, and review work and activities of programming personnel.

decision support — Assignments drafted; accountability and negotiation human

Assign duties or work schedules to employees. Supervise information technology personnel. Manage information technology projects or system activities.

#1281 · Supplemental · 55% automatable

Train subordinates in programming and program coding.

interpersonal — Software training content AI-generatable, live coaching human

Train others in computer interface or software use.

#21049 · Supplemental · 68% automatable

Develop Web sites.

text generation — App code generated; human reviews and deploys

Develop computer or online applications. Design websites or web applications.

#21050 · Supplemental · 53% automatable

Train users on the use and function of computer programs.

interpersonal — Software training content AI-generatable, live coaching human

Teach others to use computer equipment or hardware. Train others in computer interface or software use.

#1280 · Supplemental · 50% automatable

Collaborate with computer manufacturers and other users to develop new programming methods.

decision support — AI coordinates cross-team plans; human resolves conflicts

Coordinate project activities with other personnel or departments.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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