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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Commercial Pilots?
Task-level automation exposure for Commercial Pilots: 24 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
37%
weighted task index
24 of 24 tasks scored
Median Salary
$123,220 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Medium
47,630 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+5.2%
employment change
5,200 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 49 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$81,070 – $232,160
Highest medians
Connecticut $232,160
New Jersey $226,710
New York $177,430
California $165,590
Delaware $163,600
Lowest medians
Puerto Rico $81,070
South Dakota $83,710
Arkansas $94,410
Louisiana $95,940
New Mexico $97,920
State figures come from the 53-2012 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 37%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 18%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 39%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 7%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 66/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
24 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 22%
5 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 29%
7 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 49%
12 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Emerging & rewritten tasks
Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.
- New 05/2025 · AI/SME
Operate large scale uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones for various commercial purposes, such as aerial photography, surveying land and structures, or monitoring wildlife.
Constituent Tasks
#10587 · Core · 18% automatable
Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.
visual inspection — Physical aircraft inspection needs hands-on access and judgment
Inspect aircraft or aircraft components.
#20831 · Core · 8% automatable
Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.
situated mobility — Piloting aircraft demands real-time physical control
Pilot aircraft.
#10591 · Core · 70% automatable
Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
data analysis — Route optimization computational; human confirms
Choose optimal transportation routes or speeds.
#10595 · Core · 8% automatable
Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.
situated mobility — Piloting aircraft demands real-time physical control
Pilot aircraft.
#10590 · Core · 25% automatable
Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
visual inspection — Engine monitoring requires on-machine sensing
Monitor engine operation or functioning.
#10592 · Core · 42% automatable
Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.
decision support — AI suggests fixes; human resolves in operations
Resolve issues affecting transportation operations.
#10588 · Core · 35% automatable
Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10594 · Core · 45% automatable
Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
decision support — Flight planning aided; regulatory and safety sign-off human
Plan flight operations.
#10589 · Core · 8% automatable
Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.
situated mobility — Piloting aircraft demands real-time physical control
Pilot aircraft.
#10596 · Core · 22% automatable
Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.
visual inspection — Cargo securing inspection is hands-on physical verification
Inspect cargo to ensure it is properly loaded or secured.
#10593 · Core · 80% automatable
Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.
information retrieval — Parse work orders into procedures reliably
Review work orders or schedules to determine operations or procedures.
#10605 · Core · 30% automatable
Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.
physical manipulation — Physical test setup and hands-on equipment operation required
Test performance of aircraft equipment.
#10598 · Core · 70% automatable
Choose routes, altitudes, and speeds that will provide the fastest, safest, and smoothest flights.
data analysis — Route optimization computational; human confirms
Choose optimal transportation routes or speeds.
#10600 · Core · 82% automatable
Write specified information in flight records, such as flight times, altitudes flown, and fuel consumption.
text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info
Record operational details of travel.
#10599 · Core · 25% automatable
Coordinate flight activities with ground crews and air traffic control, and inform crew members of flight and test procedures.
interpersonal — Flight control coordination is real-time human safety work
Coordinate flight control or management activities.
#10608 · Core · 37% automatable
Perform minor aircraft maintenance and repair work, or arrange for major maintenance.
data analysis — AI schedules maintenance; human coordinates execution
Arrange maintenance activities. Maintain vehicles in good working condition.
#10607 · Core · 25% automatable
Supervise other crew members.
situated mobility — Transport direction needs real-time operational control
Direct passenger or freight transport activities.
#10597 · Core · 35% automatable
Request changes in altitudes or routes as circumstances dictate.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10604 · Core · 35% automatable
File instrument flight plans with air traffic control so that flights can be coordinated with other air traffic.
situated mobility — Vehicle movement coordination is real-time physical
Communicate with others to coordinate vehicle movement.
#10606 · Supplemental · 10% automatable
Rescue and evacuate injured persons.
situated mobility — Assisting during emergencies requires physical presence
Assist others during emergencies.
#10602 · Supplemental · 30% automatable
Instruct other pilots and student pilots in aircraft operations.
interpersonal — Hands-on transport equipment training is physical and human
Train transportation or material moving personnel.
#10609 · Supplemental · 55% automatable
Fly with other pilots or pilot-license applicants to evaluate their proficiency.
decision support — Applicant evaluation needs interviews and judgment
Evaluate performance of applicants, trainees, or employees.
#10610 · Supplemental · 64% automatable
Plan and formulate flight activities and test schedules and prepare flight evaluation reports.
text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info
Plan flight operations. Record operational details of travel.
#10601 · Supplemental · 30% automatable
Teach company regulations and procedures to other pilots.
interpersonal — Hands-on transport equipment training is physical and human
Train transportation or material moving personnel.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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