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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Commercial and Industrial Designers?
Task-level automation exposure for Commercial and Industrial Designers: 17 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
51%
weighted task index
17 of 17 tasks scored
Median Salary
$83,910 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Medium
33,490 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+2.4%
employment change
2,800 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 41 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$60,110 – $104,870
Highest medians
Kansas $104,870
Michigan $102,160
Massachusetts $101,720
Rhode Island $101,140
California $100,770
Lowest medians
South Dakota $60,110
Utah $62,620
New Mexico $62,710
Alabama $63,640
Iowa $70,420
State figures come from the 27-1021 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 51%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 5%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 56%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 0%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 26/100
Moderate
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
17 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 43%
7 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 46%
8 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 11%
2 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#6896 · Core · 45% automatable
Prepare sketches of ideas, detailed drawings, illustrations, artwork, or blueprints, using drafting instruments, paints and brushes, or computer-aided design equipment.
visual inspection — AI aids illustrations; precise technical drawing human
Draw detailed or technical illustrations.
#6898 · Core · 60% automatable
Modify and refine designs, using working models, to conform with customer specifications, production limitations, or changes in design trends.
text generation — Concepts generated; commercial curation human
Develop artistic or design concepts for decoration, exhibition, or commercial purposes.
#6902 · Core · 55% automatable
Evaluate feasibility of design ideas, based on factors such as appearance, safety, function, serviceability, budget, production costs/methods, and market characteristics.
decision support — Potential assessment aided by research, human decides
Evaluate quality of materials or products. Evaluate potential of products, technologies, or resources. Evaluate characteristics of products.
#6900 · Core · 52% automatable
Confer with engineering, marketing, production, or sales departments, or with customers, to establish and evaluate design concepts for manufactured products.
interpersonal — Iterative design collaboration needs human judgment and presence
Collaborate with others to develop or refine designs.
#6901 · Core · 46% automatable
Present designs and reports to customers or design committees for approval and discuss need for modification.
interpersonal — Iterative design collaboration needs human judgment and presence
Present work to clients for approval. Collaborate with others to develop or refine designs.
#6904 · Core · 65% automatable
Research production specifications, costs, production materials, and manufacturing methods and provide cost estimates and itemized production requirements.
data analysis — Project cost estimation from given parameters
Estimate costs for projects or productions.
#6897 · Core · 33% automatable
Direct and coordinate the fabrication of models or samples and the drafting of working drawings and specification sheets from sketches.
decision support — Coordination across trades needs on-site human execution
Coordinate construction or installation activities.
#6909 · Core · 62% automatable
Investigate product characteristics such as the product's safety and handling qualities, its market appeal, how efficiently it can be produced, and ways of distributing, using, and maintaining it.
data analysis — Market research analysis aided; primary data human
Conduct market research.
#6906 · Core · 60% automatable
Develop manufacturing procedures and monitor the manufacture of their designs in a factory to improve operations and product quality.
data analysis — Efficiency metrics are digital and analyzable by AI
Monitor the productivity or efficiency of industrial operations. Establish standards for products, processes, or procedures.
#6911 · Core · 62% automatable
Participate in new product planning or market research, including studying the potential need for new products.
data analysis — Market research analysis aided; primary data human
Conduct market research.
#6903 · Core · 69% automatable
Read publications, attend showings, and study competing products and design styles and motifs to obtain perspective and generate design concepts.
information retrieval — AI tracks trends across sources continuously
Monitor current trends. Conduct research to inform art, designs, or other work.
#6908 · Core · 8% automatable
Fabricate models or samples in paper, wood, glass, fabric, plastic, metal, or other materials, using hand or power tools.
physical manipulation — Physical fabrication of models and patterns
Build models, patterns, or templates.
#6910 · Supplemental · 57% automatable
Develop industrial standards and regulatory guidelines.
text generation — AI drafts standards; committee consensus and authority human
Develop safety standards, policies, or procedures. Establish standards for products, processes, or procedures.
#6899 · Supplemental · 60% automatable
Coordinate the look and function of product lines.
text generation — Concepts generated; commercial curation human
Develop artistic or design concepts for decoration, exhibition, or commercial purposes.
#6907 · Supplemental · 35% automatable
Supervise assistants' work throughout the design process.
interpersonal — Coordinating design activities is human-led collaboration
Coordinate design activities.
#6905 · Supplemental · 45% automatable
Design graphic material for use as ornamentation, illustration, or advertising on manufactured materials and packaging or containers.
visual inspection — AI aids illustrations; precise technical drawing human
Draw detailed or technical illustrations.
#6912 · Supplemental · 58% automatable
Advise corporations on issues involving corporate image projects or problems.
text generation — Promotional strategy drafted; human tailors and approves
Develop promotional strategies or plans.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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