AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity?

Task-level automation exposure for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity: 14 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Automation Exposure

33% weighted task index

14 of 14 tasks scored

Median Salary

$59,050 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

High

159,240 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+4.1% employment change

21,100 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 52 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$32,230 – $84,480

Highest medians

New York $84,480

Washington $72,280

Hawaii $68,500

California $67,130

Oregon $65,510

Lowest medians

Puerto Rico $32,230

Arkansas $37,520

Alabama $37,700

Mississippi $38,570

West Virginia $39,260

State figures come from the 53-3052 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 33%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 28%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 22%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 7%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 61/100 High

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

14 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 12%

2 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 22%

3 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 66%

9 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#18794 · Core · 33% automatable

Drive vehicles over specified routes or to specified destinations according to time schedules, complying with traffic regulations to ensure that passengers have a smooth and safe ride.

decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving

Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation. Drive passenger vehicles.

#3146 · Core · 10% automatable

Park vehicles at loading areas so that passengers can board.

situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control

Drive passenger vehicles.

#3144 · Core · 21% automatable

Inspect vehicles and check gas, oil, and water levels prior to departure.

physical manipulation — Hands-on depth/level measurement in field

Inspect motor vehicles. Measure the level or depth of water or other liquids.

#21085 · Core · 55% automatable

Announce stops to passengers.

information retrieval — General info answers assisted; live service human

Provide customers with general information or assistance. Provide transportation information to passengers or customers.

#18795 · Core · 30% automatable

Assist passengers, such as elderly or individuals with disabilities, on and off bus, ensure they are seated properly, help carry baggage, and answer questions about bus schedules or routes.

information retrieval — Transport info lookup automatable; live assistance human

Provide transportation information to passengers or customers. Assist passengers during vehicle boarding.

#18798 · Core · 20% automatable

Collect tickets or cash fares from passengers.

physical manipulation — Collecting fares physically from customers

Collect fares or payment from customers.

#18796 · Core · 10% automatable

Handle passenger emergencies or disruptions.

situated mobility — Assisting during emergencies requires physical presence

Assist others during emergencies.

#3148 · Core · 55% automatable

Report delays or accidents.

interpersonal — Emergency notification needs live accountable delivery

Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.

#3149 · Core · 55% automatable

Advise passengers to be seated and orderly while on vehicles.

information retrieval — Transport info lookup automatable; live assistance human

Provide transportation information to passengers or customers.

#3150 · Core · 15% automatable

Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilating systems for passenger comfort.

interpersonal — In-person comfort and safety assurance

Assist customers to ensure comfort or safety.

#18797 · Core · 85% automatable

Record information, such as cash receipts and ticket fares, and maintain log book.

data analysis — Structured transaction data entry and recording

Record operational or production data. Record sales or transactions data.

#18799 · Core · 5% automatable

Maintain cleanliness of bus or motor coach.

physical manipulation — Hands-on washing of vehicle surfaces and parts

Clean vehicles or vehicle components.

#21086 · Supplemental · 72% automatable

Read maps to plan bus routes.

information retrieval — Map route reading strong, real-world routing human

Read maps to determine routes.

#3151 · Supplemental · 4% automatable

Load and unload baggage in baggage compartments.

physical manipulation — Physical lifting and loading of shipments

Load shipments, belongings, or materials.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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