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AI Automation Index
Will AI Replace Bus Drivers, School?
Task-level automation exposure for Bus Drivers, School: 17 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.
E-E-A-T Verified
Developed & audited by Gini Loh Automation Exposure
38%
weighted task index
17 of 17 tasks scored
Median Salary
$47,920 / year
BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation
Employment Level
Very High
402,930 people hold this job — size, not growth
Projected 2025–35
+0.7%
employment change
56,500 openings a year · BLS line item
Pay by state
BLS OEWS publishes 54 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.
$17,630 – $65,170
Highest medians
Massachusetts $65,170
Washington $63,370
Connecticut $61,520
California $61,040
New Jersey $59,430
Lowest medians
Alabama $17,630
Puerto Rico $27,950
Louisiana $29,450
Mississippi $30,640
West Virginia $33,360
State figures come from the 53-3051 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.
What the score is made of
Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.
Automation potential 38%
Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.
Physical work 43%
Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.
Judgment & influence 17%
Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.
Routine administration 12%
Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.
Rewritten by O*NET 0%
Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.
Consequence of error 51/100
High
O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.
Constituent Task Mix
17 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.
High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 28%
5 tasks
Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 24%
4 tasks
Low exposure (below 35%) 48%
8 tasks
How would you survive?
Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.
Simulate Upskilling →Constituent Tasks
#23716 · Core · 55% automatable
Comply with traffic regulations to operate vehicles in a safe and courteous manner.
decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving
Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation.
#23719 · Core · 55% automatable
Follow safety rules as students board and exit buses or cross streets near bus stops.
decision support — AI can guide safety procedures but human executes driving
Follow safety procedures for vehicle operation.
#23715 · Core · 20% automatable
Check the condition of a vehicle's tires, brakes, windshield wipers, lights, oil, fuel, water, and safety equipment to ensure that everything is in working order.
visual inspection — Vehicle inspection is physical on-site work
Inspect motor vehicles.
#23729 · Core · 65% automatable
Report any bus malfunctions or needed repairs.
text generation — Reporting malfunctions is structured information relay
Report vehicle or equipment malfunctions.
#23724 · Core · 10% automatable
Pick up and drop off students at regularly scheduled neighborhood locations, following strict time schedules.
situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control
Drive passenger vehicles.
#23718 · Core · 10% automatable
Escort small children across roads and highways.
situated mobility — Roadside physical assistance in unpredictable settings
Assist motorists or pedestrians.
#23717 · Core · 10% automatable
Drive gasoline, diesel, or electrically powered multi-passenger vehicles to transport students between neighborhoods, schools, and school activities.
situated mobility — Driving passenger vehicles needs real-world control
Drive passenger vehicles.
#23722 · Core · 5% automatable
Maintain order among students during trips to ensure safety.
situated mobility — Physical presence maintaining public order
Maintain public order or security.
#23721 · Core · 70% automatable
Maintain knowledge of first-aid procedures.
information retrieval — AI supports study; certification requires human
Maintain professional knowledge or certifications.
#23725 · Core · 82% automatable
Prepare and submit reports that may include the number of students or trips, hours worked, mileage, or fuel consumption.
text generation — Record travel operational details from provided info
Record operational details of travel.
#23730 · Core · 55% automatable
Report delays, accidents, or other traffic and transportation situations, using telephones or mobile two-way radios.
interpersonal — Emergency notification needs live accountable delivery
Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.
#23727 · Core · 82% automatable
Record bus routes.
data analysis — Record production data into structured logs
Record operational or production data. Record operational details of travel.
#23720 · Core · 5% automatable
Keep bus interiors clean for students.
physical manipulation — Hands-on washing of vehicle surfaces and parts
Clean vehicles or vehicle components.
#23726 · Core · 67% automatable
Read maps and follow written and verbal geographic directions.
information retrieval — Map route reading strong, real-world routing human
Read maps to determine routes. Receive information or instructions for performing work assignments.
#23728 · Core · 15% automatable
Regulate heating, lighting, and ventilation systems for student comfort.
interpersonal — In-person comfort and safety assurance
Assist customers to ensure comfort or safety.
#23731 · Core · 43% automatable
Report delinquent student behaviors to school administration.
interpersonal — Emergency notification needs live accountable delivery
Monitor student behavior, social development, or health. Notify others of emergencies, problems, or hazards.
#23723 · Supplemental · 8% automatable
Make minor repairs to vehicles.
physical manipulation — Physical vehicle maintenance work
Maintain vehicles in good working condition.
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How this was scored
- 1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
- 2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
- 3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
- 4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.
Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.
Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast
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