AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Physicists?

Task-level automation exposure for Physicists: 16 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

56% weighted task index

16 of 16 tasks scored

Median Salary

$172,250 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

20,430 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+7.2% employment change

1,300 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 43 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$82,590 – $225,390

Highest medians

Florida $225,390

New Hampshire $214,030

Pennsylvania $210,990

California $207,490

Oregon $200,320

Lowest medians

Delaware $82,590

South Dakota $83,050

Michigan $94,520

Montana $103,800

Colorado $104,580

State figures come from the 19-2012 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 56%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 11%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 58%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 28%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 20/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

16 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 41%

5 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 48%

9 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 11%

2 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Constituent Tasks

#10905 · Core · 70% automatable

Analyze data from research conducted to detect and measure physical phenomena.

data analysis — Geological/geographic data analysis with human review

Analyze geological or geographical data.

#10906 · Core · 72% automatable

Report experimental results by writing papers for scientific journals or by presenting information at scientific conferences.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#10903 · Core · 80% automatable

Perform complex calculations as part of the analysis and evaluation of data, using computers.

data analysis — Applies math/statistics to problems; human validates

Apply mathematical principles or statistical approaches to solve problems in scientific or applied fields.

#10904 · Core · 72% automatable

Describe and express observations and conclusions in mathematical terms.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#10908 · Core · 45% automatable

Collaborate with other scientists in the design, development, and testing of experimental, industrial, or medical equipment, instrumentation, and procedures.

interpersonal — Research collaboration is iterative human teamwork

Collaborate on research activities with scientists or technical specialists.

#10910 · Core · 20% automatable

Observe the structure and properties of matter, and the transformation and propagation of energy, using equipment such as masers, lasers, and telescopes, to explore and identify the basic principles governing these phenomena.

physical manipulation — Hands-on lab/field equipment operation with samples

Operate laboratory or field equipment.

#21174 · Core · 55% automatable

Write research proposals to receive funding.

text generation — Draft applications; human owns funding strategy

Prepare proposals or grant applications to obtain project funding.

#10907 · Core · 40% automatable

Design computer simulations to model physical data so that it can be better understood.

decision support — Physical theory needs expert scientific judgment

Develop theories or models of physical phenomena.

#10912 · Core · 55% automatable

Teach physics to students.

text generation — Science instruction content AI-assisted; delivery human

Instruct college students in physical or life sciences.

#10911 · Core · 40% automatable

Develop theories and laws on the basis of observation and experiments, and apply these theories and laws to problems in areas such as nuclear energy, optics, and aerospace technology.

decision support — Physical theory needs expert scientific judgment

Develop theories or models of physical phenomena.

#24021 · Core · 69% automatable

Perform peer reviews of scientific papers.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Evaluate new technologies or methods. Evaluate scholarly materials. Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#10914 · Supplemental · 31% automatable

Conduct application evaluations and analyze results to determine commercial, industrial, scientific, medical, military, or other uses for electro-optical devices.

data analysis — Ecosystem research aided; sampling requires humans

Conduct research of processes in natural or industrial ecosystems. Design materials for industrial or commercial applications. Assemble precision electronics or optical equipment.

#10913 · Supplemental · 55% automatable

Develop manufacturing, assembly, and fabrication processes of lasers, masers, infrared, and other light-emitting and light-sensitive devices.

decision support — Specs drafted; human validates feasibility

Develop specifications for new products or processes. Develop technical specifications for systems or equipment. Design tools, fixtures, or other devices for production equipment.

#10917 · Supplemental · 54% automatable

Advise authorities of procedures to be followed in radiation incidents or hazards, and assist in civil defense planning.

decision support — Standard logistics advice; operational context needs human

Advise others on logistics topics. Advise others on management of emergencies or hazardous situations or materials. Advise others on health and safety issues.

#10916 · Supplemental · 53% automatable

Conduct research pertaining to potential environmental impacts of atomic energy-related industrial development to determine licensing qualifications.

data analysis — Analysis aided; primary environmental data collection human

Research environmental impact of industrial or development activities. Evaluate environmental impact of operational or development activities. Conduct research of processes in natural or industrial ecosystems. Evaluate characteristics of products.

#10915 · Supplemental · 57% automatable

Develop standards of permissible concentrations of radioisotopes in liquids and gases.

text generation — AI drafts standards; committee consensus and authority human

Develop safety standards, policies, or procedures. Establish standards for products, processes, or procedures.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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