AI Automation Index

Will AI Replace Historians?

Task-level automation exposure for Historians: 21 O*NET tasks scored against their work activities, plus the simulator.

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Developed & audited by Gini Loh

Automation Exposure

56% weighted task index

21 of 21 tasks scored

Median Salary

$76,750 / year

BLS OEWS, May 2025 — this exact occupation

Employment Level

Low

3,450 people hold this job — size, not growth

Projected 2025–35

+3.0% employment change

300 openings a year · BLS line item

Pay by state

BLS OEWS publishes 35 state estimates for this occupation. Each is its own survey estimate, not the national median adjusted for local prices.

$33,840 – $121,710

Highest medians

Massachusetts $121,710

Maryland $120,580

District of Columbia $118,290

Minnesota $103,040

Virginia $101,920

Lowest medians

Utah $33,840

Wisconsin $45,810

Mississippi $46,010

Oklahoma $50,980

South Carolina $52,120

State figures come from the 19-3093 row in the May 2025 state panel. States where the estimate was suppressed or too small to publish are absent.

What the score is made of

Each task is mapped to its work activities, scored for AI automation potential, and weighted by how important those activities are to the job. These are the components.

Automation potential 56%

Importance-weighted mean of the scored tasks. This is the headline index.

Physical work 6%

Share of weighted tasks in hands-on or machine-operating work activities.

Judgment & influence 20%

Share in analysis, decisions, teaching, directing, advising, or caring for others.

Routine administration 25%

Share in documenting, recording, and administrative activities.

Rewritten by O*NET 0%

Share of weighted tasks O*NET rewrote in a recent update. Reported, not folded into the score.

Consequence of error 1/100 Low

O*NET's own rating of how serious an uncorrectable mistake would be here — respondents, not us. Deliberately not in the index: the score measures what AI can do with the task content, and multiplying it by stakes would be our judgment dressed as data.

Constituent Task Mix

21 tasks for this occupation, weighted by work-activity importance. Shares below are of total task weight, not task count.

High exposure (≥ 60% of the task is automatable) 40%

9 tasks

Medium exposure (≥ 35%) 49%

10 tasks

Low exposure (below 35%) 10%

2 tasks

How would you survive?

Move your week away from the high-exposure tasks and toward the ones that need judgment. The simulator recalculates the index as you shift the mix.

Simulate Upskilling →

Emerging & rewritten tasks

Tasks O*NET added or rewrote for this occupation in its recent updates (05/2025 – 08/2026), with who proposed them. Additions are not in the scored task inventory — they are new work O*NET is still measuring, so they appear here and nowhere in the index. A Revision replaces a task that is scored, which is why only those move the "Rewritten by O*NET" share.

New 08/2025 · Incumbent

Coordinate artifact donations on behalf of a museum.
New 08/2025 · Incumbent

Create and revise scripts for the tour guides.
New 08/2025 · Incumbent

Write policies and procedures for archival collection care and research protocols.

Constituent Tasks

#3718 · Core · 78% automatable

Gather historical data from sources such as archives, court records, diaries, news files, and photographs, as well as from books, pamphlets, and periodicals.

information retrieval — Collect archival data from sources

Collect archival data.

#3717 · Core · 50% automatable

Organize data, and analyze and interpret its authenticity and relative significance.

information retrieval — Source synthesis aided; archival judgment and interpretation human

Conduct historical research.

#3724 · Core · 72% automatable

Prepare publications and exhibits, or review those prepared by others, to ensure their historical accuracy.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#3728 · Core · 72% automatable

Organize information for publication and for other means of dissemination, such as via storage media or the Internet.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#3720 · Core · 50% automatable

Conduct historical research as a basis for the identification, conservation, and reconstruction of historic places and materials.

information retrieval — Source synthesis aided; archival judgment and interpretation human

Conduct historical research.

#20744 · Core · 6% automatable

Conserve and preserve manuscripts, records, and other artifacts.

physical manipulation — Preparing materials for storage is physical

Prepare materials for preservation, storage, or display.

#3726 · Core · 72% automatable

Present historical accounts in terms of individuals or social, ethnic, political, economic, or geographic groupings.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#3725 · Core · 50% automatable

Research the history of a particular country or region, or of a specific time period.

information retrieval — Source synthesis aided; archival judgment and interpretation human

Conduct historical research.

#3722 · Core · 50% automatable

Conduct historical research, and publish or present findings and theories.

information retrieval — Source synthesis aided; archival judgment and interpretation human

Conduct historical research.

#3727 · Core · 51% automatable

Determine which topics to research, or pursue research topics specified by clients or employers.

decision support — Social research plans drafted; rigor human-owned

Collect data about customer needs. Plan social sciences research.

#3734 · Core · 53% automatable

Recommend actions related to historical art, such as which items to add to a collection or which items to display in an exhibit.

decision support — Proposes corrective procedures; human verifies applicability

Evaluate characteristics of archival or historical objects. Design layout of art or product exhibits, displays, or promotional materials. Recommend changes or corrective procedures.

#3729 · Core · 61% automatable

Research and prepare manuscripts in support of public programming and the development of exhibits at historic sites, museums, libraries, and archives.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Conduct historical research. Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#3723 · Core · 72% automatable

Speak to various groups, organizations, and clubs to promote the aims and activities of historical societies.

text generation — Reports drafted; presentations need human delivery

Prepare scientific or technical reports or presentations.

#3730 · Core · 41% automatable

Advise or consult with individuals and institutions regarding issues such as the historical authenticity of materials or the customs of a specific historical period.

interpersonal — Client dialogue on products/policies is relational

Evaluate characteristics of archival or historical objects. Communicate with clients about products, procedures, and policies.

#3733 · Core · 30% automatable

Interview people to gather information about historical events and to record oral histories.

interpersonal — Observation and interviews are inherently human

Collect information from people through observation, interviews, or surveys.

#3719 · Core · 50% automatable

Trace historical development in a particular field, such as social, cultural, political, or diplomatic history.

information retrieval — Source synthesis aided; archival judgment and interpretation human

Conduct historical research.

#3735 · Supplemental · 45% automatable

Coordinate activities of workers engaged in cataloging and filing materials.

decision support — AI coordinates cross-team plans; human resolves conflicts

Manage clerical or administrative activities. Coordinate project activities with other personnel or departments.

#3732 · Supplemental · 78% automatable

Collect detailed information on individuals for use in biographies.

information retrieval — Collect archival data from sources

Collect archival data.

#3721 · Supplemental · 55% automatable

Teach and conduct research in colleges, universities, museums, and other research agencies and schools.

text generation — Instruction content AI-assisted; live teaching human

Instruct college students in social sciences or humanities disciplines.

#3736 · Supplemental · 81% automatable

Edit historical society publications.

text generation — AI edits prose well; human owns voice and final judgment

Edit written materials. Edit documents.

#3731 · Supplemental · 78% automatable

Translate or request translation of reference materials.

text generation — Translation well-handled; human reviews nuance

Translate information for others.

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Community Sentiment

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Method

How this was scored

1. Tasks. O*NET task statements for this occupation, from a release whose newest record is dated 08/2026.
2. Work activities. Each task maps to 1–5 Detailed Work Activities; each activity belongs to one of 41 Generalized Work Activities that O*NET rates for importance (1–5) in this occupation.
3. Automation potential. Every work activity carries one score for how far current AI can perform it end-to-end. Tasks inherit the mean of their activities.
4. Weighting. Task weight = 0.35 + 0.65 × (importance − 1)/4, scaled by how often the task is performed and by 0.7 for Supplemental tasks. Importance is the task's own O*NET rating where it exists (18,369 of 18,838 tasks); the rest inherit their work activities' importance. The index is the weighted mean.

Check: across the 910 occupations where O*NET also rates how far machine speed sets the pace, this index moves opposite to it (Spearman ρ = -0.49). The more a job is paced by equipment, the less of its task content AI can address — the relationship you would expect if the scoring is working.

Sources · O*NET 31.0 (task records to 08/2026) · BLS OEWS May 2025 · BLS projections 2025-2035 · rubric v2.1 · tasks for O*NET, not a forecast

See the full method →

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