A delivery van’s carbon score comes from a set rule, not a real route. Every gallon of diesel burned counts as 10,180 grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) [1]. The electric number simply multiplies 0.81 pounds of CO2 per kilowatt-hour of U.S. grid power [3] by the 25 to 40 kilowatt-hours a light van uses every 100 miles [5].

The big picture:

I keep coming back to how much of a carbon cut is just a choice of rates, not a real change on the road.

A last-mile carbon score is simply your work times a published rate. The work is yours: gallons, miles, or stops. The rate belongs to a federal agency.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) lists 10,180 grams of CO2 per gallon of diesel. It set this figure in a 2010 rule with the Department of Transportation (DOT) [1][2]. That rule assumes all the carbon in the fuel burns up [2].

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lists 0.81 pounds of CO2 per kilowatt-hour of U.S. power [3]. Yet the EPA calculator uses 823.1 pounds of CO2 equivalent per megawatt-hour instead [2]. Two federal numbers for the exact same power create two different baselines.

The dollar side works as a rate table too. In 2025, commercial buyers paid an average of 13.41 cents per kilowatt-hour, while industrial plants paid 8.62 cents [4]. A depot’s bill class and zip code price the exact same power differently.

By the numbers

  • 10,180 grams — Fixed diesel rate: A gallon of diesel counts as 10,180 grams of CO2, and a gallon of gas counts as 8,887 grams [1]. The figure comes from a 2010 federal rule and stays the same today [2].
  • 0.81 pounds — Grid power rate: The EIA U.S. average for 2023 draws from 1.53 billion metric tons of CO2 over 4.18 trillion kilowatt-hours [3]. The EPA uses a newer figure and a wider basket of gases to reach 823.1 pounds of CO2 equivalent per megawatt-hour [2].
  • 25 to 40 kWh — Electric power use: The Department of Energy (DOE) says light electric vans use 25 to 40 kilowatt-hours per 100 miles [5].
  • 13.41 cents — Commercial power price: The 2025 average U.S. commercial price per kilowatt-hour sits about 56% higher than the 8.62-cent industrial rate [4]. State averages range from 8.20 cents in North Dakota to 35.72 cents in Hawaii [4].

What I’d watch:

I’ve been pulling these rate pages apart this week, and the detail I want next to every quoted number is its basis.

  • The chosen factor: A carrier claiming a 12% carbon drop can only prove it if they name the rate and the year. The grid factor changes every year, but the diesel rate has not moved since 2010 [1][2][3].
  • The chosen boundary: The EPA and the DOE name three limits: tailpipe, well-to-wheel, and cradle-to-grave [6]. An electric van lacks a tailpipe, but its power comes from somewhere, and the three limits measure totally different lifespans [6].
  • The depot bill class: The published class averages differ by roughly 56% per kilowatt-hour, with an even wider state spread [4]. The same charge hits a different cost line depending on the address and meter class [4].
  • The network scale: The U.S. moves over 51 million tons of freight daily, or about 57 tons per person [7]. E-commerce sales grew 20-fold between 2000 and 2019 [7]. A tiny rate gap per box swells into massive swings across a whole network.

The catch

My read: the math cuts both ways, and none of this argues against electric vans.

A coal-heavy grid can erase much of the electric edge, since the 0.81 figure is a national average that hides dirty local power [3]. The diesel rate assumes all fuel burns, entirely ignoring the heavy work of getting fuel to the pump [2].

The electric number also still rides on the driver. Burning 25 or 40 kilowatt-hours per 100 miles can happen in the exact same van during a good week or a bad one [5].

I could be wrong about how much this shifts a specific deal. But two federal pages give two different numbers for the exact same power [2][3]. Two honest reports can disagree, and the only way to check the math is to print the rule right next to the number.

At a glance

  • The Big Shift: A last-mile carbon score is just your work times a published rate, not a true measure of a route. Diesel counts at 10,180 grams of CO2 per gallon and grid power at 0.81 pounds per kilowatt-hour, yet the two share neither vintage nor boundary.
  • Why It Matters: If a carrier’s carbon cut is just a rate swap, the figures in a corporate climate report are not comparable. A number nobody can check is a number nobody can audit.
  • What I’d Watch: Whether the next round of carrier scorecards prints the rule next to each carbon figure.
  • Factor version: Which value a fleet used — the EIA mark of 0.81 pounds of CO2 per kilowatt-hour, or the EPA mark of 823.1 pounds of CO2 equivalent per megawatt-hour.
  • Boundary: Whether a number covers just the tailpipe, the fuel cycle behind it, or the whole life of the vehicle.
  • Tariff class: Whether the depot load is billed on a commercial or industrial rate, a gap of about 56% per kilowatt-hour in the 2025 averages.
  • The Catch: Every figure here relies on a national average. A coal-heavy local grid, a skipped fuel cycle, or a cold week of heavy loads can move the electric number more than a physical route change can.

Related reading

Sources

[1] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle” — https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle [2] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator: Calculations and References” — https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gases-equivalencies-calculator-calculations-and-references [3] U.S. Energy Information Administration, “How much carbon dioxide is produced per kilowatthour of U.S. electricity generation?” — https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11 [4] U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Electricity explained: Prices and factors affecting prices” (2025 annual averages) — https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/prices-and-factors-affecting-prices.php [5] U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, “Electric Vehicle Benefits and Considerations” — https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_benefits.html [6] U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, “Emissions from Electric Vehicles” — https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html [7] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Learn about SmartWay” — https://www.epa.gov/smartway/learn-about-smartway